I was going to mention this arcane topic last year, but never got around to it, even though it bothered me. There is a fundamental logic to an element of defense on the 2009 Jets that didn't get exploited to the hilt, but could have. The 2010 Jets seem to have addressed this. We could have been a much more dangerous team last year. Who knows how much it would have affected the bottom line, but anyway, you have to know how to ice the cake you bake. The underlying point of seeing things like the way I am going to show them has to do basically with inter-phase efficiency: capturing optimum value from its opportunities, and seeing how different phases of the game bleed into one another, are interconnected, how opportunities are fostered by this interconnectedness, and why it is so important to get a player at a particular position that can turn the flywheel by hitting homeruns when they get their limited opportunities at the plate. The most important concept underlying this is the idea that there is no such thing as a closed system. All systems are open systems that overlap and contribute to, bleed into others. All phases of the game bleed into one another in a way that is hard, if not impossible, to capture wholly. The attempt to explain the game of football statistically can perplexing for this reason. Stats isolate a game of myriad interconnected phases and elements. No other game is even remotely like football not only in its complexity, but in the simultaneity of moving parts that contribute to "a simple given play", and the coordination necessary on a variety of levels to even play the game. Unlike baseball, which is itself complex, but not nearly so, where just for example, a pitch, like a football play, is "strategically called", but with much less variety than a football playbook. Anyway, every half of every game is initiated by the kicking phase of the game, which tees it off to the kick return phase, and this becomes the offense/defense phase. Every score leads into a kick-off situation (not including PAT/FG), connected to a KR situation, until the clocks run down. Likewise, teams on offense can elect to punt rather than just risk turning the ball over on downs. When we talk about great defense, we are talking about the potential resulting function that affects opportunities in the return game, creating punt returns and limiting kick returns. Just to show how much of a game changer kickoff returns can be, remember back to Ted Ginn's 2 TDS, or Brad Smith's TD. Momentum swingers. We can rank the value of KO returns for TDs, and even though they may be rare, we know how TD returns encapsulate the importance of the return game. A return doesn't have to go for a TD to be significant. +7 = A KO returned for a TD when it leads off a game or half, not as result of TD/FG Even = A KO returned for TD, after opponent TD +4 = A KO return for TD, after opponent FG Fine, this means if your defense is bad, and you give up a lot of scores, your team should emphasize the KO return game. But if your defense is really good scoring-wise, you aren't going to get a lot of opportunities here. Like the Jets. On the other hand, a team with a great defense, in the order of what the Jets had last year, an explosive punt return game should be a super high priority to obtain. It's very simple. As you defense gets better, the fewer 1st downs an opponent attains. The fewer 1st downs, the more punts forced. Additionally, the fewer 1st downs, and the more punts, and the better the defense gets overall and especially in limiting big scoring plays, the fewer scores you give up. The fewer scores you give up the fewer kick returns you get. Better defense creates an increasingly polarized and inversely proportional relationship between kick returns and punt returns. As the defense gets better and attains a critical mass - as the elite defenses do and as we did last year - the punt returns increase dramatically while kick return opportunities in turn decrease dramatically. Let's look. So, Rex builds this incredible defense. The isolated stats are astounding. Best we've ever seen. Let's see some D stats and the corresponding return stats. (Italicized are Defensive Stats and BOLDED are the correlating Return game stats.) Scoring Defense: 14.8: 1st in league KICK RETURNS: 44:1st (lowest) in league Total 1st Downs: 237: 1st; 2nd: MIN, 271 3rd Down Made: 69: 1st (T3) 3rd Down Prcnt: 31.5%: 1st PUNTS FORCED: 98: 1st; 2nd: SF, 95 PUNT RETURNS: 50: 1st; 2nd: SF, 49 FAIR CATCHES: 26: 1st; (SF: 13) PUNTS FIELDED: 76 (my statistic: to avoid confusion this will be Punts Caught (PC)) PUNTS UNFIELDED: 22 (my statistic) PUNTS FORCED (PF) = 98 PR___Yards___Average____Long___TD__Fair Catches 50-----457--------9.1---------37------0---------26----- KICK OFF RETURNS KR____Yards___Average___Long___TD 44-----1074-------24.4-------106------1- We let up the fewest scores and thus received the lowest frequency of KO's in the league. Likewise, we experienced the fewest new 1st downs, gave up the fewest amount of 3rd down conversions, had the best 3rd down stop rate, let up the fewest yards, and therefore we received the greatest amount of punts in the league. Some specific and astounding figures concerning these relationships, along with some notes and conclusions: Significant Relationships PF/KR ratio: 2.23 = ~ 225% more than KR; more than double! PC/KR ratio: 1.73 = punts fair caught and returned almost double kick returns PR/KR ratio: 1.14 = 114% of KR: The JETS were the only team with a positive margin between PR to KR. FC% of all Fielded Punts: 34.2% = 26 of 76 punts were Fair Caught % of Punts Non-Advanced: 49% = 26 Fair Caught + 22 Unfielded = 48 of 98. Factoring in fair catches, bc fair catches reduce PRs, even though they mitigate risk of actually catching a punt to then return it, which is likely the most dangerous play in football (with unlikely, or at least uncertain payoff: average 8.4 yds/return league-wide, but stretched by few long gains and many short), and where the risk of losing a ball on turnover between the whistles (as opposed to a turnover on downs, or a punt, which is a turnover by choice) is not just a turnover but a potential momentum swinging turnover-negating turnover. FC's reduce risk when a significant victory has already been won - a punt - but the return of the punt by an explosive player can add tremendous payoff to an already dominant unit. Having a PR that can break open returns is the icing on the cake the defense bakes. When you factor in either the average per game punt return opportunity, or the total aggregate returns over a season, you are talking about creating back-breaking potential of astronomical proportions to an opposing team. Think: An opposing offense just can't move the chains on a given Sunday. (We gave up only 237 1sts total last year and forced a total of 98 punts.) Fine. But add to that a punt returner that -all day- is going to be up to bat swinging for the fences? No you've got icing to spread on the cake. Here are our Punts-Forced Figures for all 16 weeks of 2009. Think of these as opportunities to hit a homerun. With a better defense than everyone else, we force more of these opportunities: 6 6 7 5 4 8 5 7 4 5 5 7 8 8 6 7_ 98 Punts Forced is 50 Punts Returned (457 yds/9/1 avg) plus 26 Fair Catches, equals 76 Punts Fielded (Punts Caught), leaving 22 Punts Unfielded. =98. To briefly compare to other random teams, here are a few showing Kick Returns - Punts Forced - Punts Returned - Fair Catches Team__KR__PF__PR__FC DET-----96---66---28--15 SD------63---62---26--13 CIN-----62---83---40--19 SF-------52--95---49---13 DAL-----47---92---39--23 JETS----44---98---50--26 Punt Returns, not merely Punts Forced is the key statistic. I would surmise that the Jets positive PR-KR ratio has to do with the defense being so good that we win field position, and therefore avoid touchbacks, etc. But the stats don't bear that out. I don't know the explanation. However, the idea of getting a guy other than the solid Jim Leonard or Cotchery to field punts is a good one. I never understood why this was not emphasized at the expense of KR, especially last year. A guy like Joe McKnight or Kyle Wilson is almost perfect to exploit this statistical seam that will develop again if we play at a similar level. It is the difference between small margin of victory/loss and clear victory. It is also a major equalizer, as in the case of a team like New Orleans, Baltimore or Indianapolis. Our guys did an adequate job last year, but with the frequency of punt return opportunities we're getting, there is a major need to maximize return. I was actually hoping for a Trindon Holliday, but perhaps Kyle Wilson, or Joe McKnight can step in here. This is a big deal and the FO bringing these two in to compete deserves major props: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUwj7JemkC4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXwoUcum5kY&feature=related
I read bits and pieces but this looks like some valuable info about what the Jets Defense makes the opposing offenses do regarding kick backs to the Jets offense. It also means that they Jets needed who they drafted. A PR in Wilson, a KR in McKnight. Westhoff has a hard on. They will do wonders with the rookies.
TL;DR version: Awesome defense = more punts forced, -> having a good punt return team is a lot more valuable. From what I gathered. Very cool write up, I enjoyed looking through it.
If I understand correctly, the OP is arguing that KR returners are actually less important to the Jets, and that the value added to the PR game with Wilson and maybe McKnight is an extremely undervalued portion of our draft, because of our defense.
It means with an explosive Punt Returner, we will win the superbowl. We got zero TDs last year by PR, forcing almost 100 punts and giving up only 237 first downs.... A solid job by Cotch and Loenard, but it Wilson or McKnight are explosive like in College, this team will be lights out. There is a deep connection between punt return explosiveness and elite defense. You have to exploit it if you are a smart GM.
I personally find them of equal value. The better the field position, the quicker the score, the more pressure on the opposing offense, and the more cushion for the Jets top defense. it also allows the offense to run more. And it does help the jets OL to run block more. They love it. A OL that run blocks more than it pass blocks is an OL that never complains. I do agree with the findings that PR is more important because the jets see more of them. But I'm never one to say "that part of the team can be overlooked this season." I feel ST was overlooked in a couple of games, and it screwed the Jets - like the Ginn 2 TD game.
^^ True, but when talking about where you want to put your best returner it has some importance. The point is moot, though because it looks like Wilson already has a huge advantage on punt returns over Leonhard and Cotch. Leon was never very good at returning punts and McKnight looks almost exactly like the same type of player. Don't know if this is the most common case in the NFL, but it always sounds better to me when you have a defensive player returning punts and an offensive player on kicks.
I actually think that the stats that you presented do bear that out. 78% of our punts forced were caught, according to your stats, compared with 67% for the rest of the teams you listed, which means that, presumably, a higher proportion of their punts forced ended up as touchbacks, or at least deeper in their territory. And another key statistic, I think, is the proportion between returns and fair catches - with a better punt return game - and a punt returner who had a better feel of when to be able to return - I would guess we would have more returns per fair catch, which should also improve our overall field position and big-play potential. I'm excited to see our special teams this year.
I didn't mean that kickoff returns can be ignored, just that the Jets benefit more from a strong punt return game than other teams in the league.
Lot of fair catches last season. Leonhard and Cotchery on punt returns is enough to make anyone feel nauseous. Kyle Wilson on the other hand...
No kidding. This actually lends itself to the departure of Leon, too. Wilson, not Leon, would have been taking over duties for Leonhard in the PR game, and as Vader demonstrated, our defense gives the PR game much higher priority than the KR game. I'm not sure there's a way to ensure that the %PNA goes down and we see higher numbers of PR, but it's absolutely more integral that we boost those numbers than it is that we boost the KRs.
For most teams, KR would be equal to PR, if not more important for the lesser defenses. For our team, however, the data seems rather clear. The only thing is that proportionally, most teams don't see the same kind of boom in punt returning that they see in kick returning from a solid returner. I'd imagine it takes a unique situation like ours to push PR into quite so important a position. I think we can all agree that our coverage teams need to be absolutely solid this season after they cost us that Miami game.
