Obviously by now we know that these are 4 of the top DE/OLB prospects in this draft. Lets see how they compare: Background Ayers: Ayers went into UCLA as a top 50 recruit according to Scout.com, and a HS All American according to SuperPrep and PrepStar. He was the #1 DE in California as a HS recruit according to Scout.com, and the 9th best player in the state overall. Born on July/10/1989 the soon to be 22 year old would play 38 games over 3 years at UCLA, and make 29 starts. In 2008 he played DE, in 2009 he played LB and DE, and in 2010 he played LB. In 2009 he was an CFN.com All American, and Honorable Mention All Pac-10. In 2010 he was a captain of his team, 2nd team All American according to the Walter Camp foundation, and finished 3rd for the Butkus award. Reed: Reed is a 5th year senior defensive end from the University of Arizona. Born on 2/28/87, the 24 year old is one of the older prospects getting first round talk. He played in over 40 games at college and started in over 30 of them. He was not a big time recruit of HS but his bio on the University of Arizona's website shows him to be at least a decorated athlete in-state. He actually made the SuperPrep All America team (and All West team) as a RB according to his UofA bio-page. Not a very decorated player in college. Houston: A former 3 star DE recruit out of Florida (Scout.com), Houston is the lone junior in this comparison. He is 22 years old, was born 1/21/89, and is therefore not a true junior. In fact, he is older than Ayers by half a year. In 2009 he was named All-SEC Second Team by Associated Press, SEC Coaches and Phil Steele. In 2010 he was a PFW All American and a Walter Camp 2nd team All American. I also believe he would be All-SEC. Started 24 of the 36 games he played in college. Kerrigan: An unanimous All American in 2010, Kerrigan is a decorated and accomplished college athlete. He entered Purdue as the #3 player in Indiana, and a 3 star recruit at DE. Like Reed, he would play in over 40 games in college and start in over 30 of them. Kerrigan is 10 days younger than me, and was born 8/16/1988. In '09 he was on the Hendricks award candidate, and 2nd team All American according to Rivals.com. Thoughts: Kerrigan runs away with this here, but Ayers isn't far behind. Both have been blue chip college players for a while now. There's a significant gap between them and the other two, and then there's a sizable gap between Houston and Reed. Reed, to be completely honest, doesn't belong in the conversation as far as background goes. Both Ayers and Kerrigan were captains and leaders on their team, intangibles that should carry forward in time. I'm pretty sure they're the only two who graduated, though Reed probably did also. Performance Ayers: Threw up 183 tackles from '08-'10 with 128 of them being solo tackles. He also notched 14 sacks and 29.5 TFL over that same span, 6 INTs (2 TDs), 5 FF, and 10 passes defended. Best year was his '09 when he notched 6 sacks, 4 INTs, 14.5 TFL, and 75 TKLs (55 solo). Reed: From '08-'10 Reed threw up 107 TKL, 17 sacks, 24.5 TFL, 5 FF, and 5 passes defended. His best season was the '08 season when he notched 37 TKL, 8 sacks, 9.5 TFL, 3 FF, and 2 passes broken up. Houston: From '08-'10 he's got 124 TKL (74 solo), 21 sacks, 38.5 TFL, 1 INT, 5 PD, and 3 FF. Best season was his 2010 that included the INT, 67 TKL (42 solo), 19.5 TFL, 11 sacks, 2 FF, 2 PD, and a couple hurries. Kerrigan: From '08-10 he threw up 191 TKL (122 solo), 30.5 sacks, 54.5 TFL(!), 13 FF, and 7 PD. His best season was the year 2010 when he threw up 26 TFL and 11 sacks. He also posted 70 tackles (50 solo), and forced 5 fumbles. Thoughts: Again, Kerrigan stands out from the crowd with Ayers just behind him. Kerrigan is clearly a guy who makes his living behind the LOS. Reed, again, does not really belong in the conversation. He doesn't get as many tackles, TFL, or plays off the LOS. Ayers' plays against the pass are impressive, and he put up the numbers of a playmaker. Size/Game/Projectability Ayers: Stands a little bit taller than 6'3", but looks taller due to long limbs and an athletic build. A very projectable athlete, he weighed in as high as 259 this offseason at his pro day. He managed to run a better time at 259 than he did at a lighter weight at the combine. He moves extremely well but isn't physically powerful, and you can kind of see that in his stats. Not a great tackler, and needs to get NFL strong. Some would say he needs to get his nose dirty more often, and I say that cocaine is bad for you. That said, might come off a bit soft at times, though I'm sure that will get exaggerated beyond what it is. Top of the line flexibility it seems, and he can get his shoulders lower than anyone here. Physical game and tools play up because he is a player who uses his head on the field. Pursues well. Reed: Not all that projectable, but good size at 6'2" 262 or so. Better athlete than what may be thought, and plays with excellent leverage when he's on. Might be the strongest guy in this group on the field, but also the slowest and least flexible. Plus, they're coming out of college and he's the oldest, so it'd make sense for him to be the strongest. He's got more "man strength" on him right now. He's the only one to have any injury troubles. Still, a tenacious player and he can wrap them up and bring them down once he has you. I've made a Woodley comparison at some point or another, and he has the kind of upside maybe...Still Woodley was a far better college player and prospect. Houston: Not a very rangy athlete, but has a strong compact build. Upper body is strong, and combines that strength with an explosive first step. Posted great workout numbers. Physically doesn't project to get much bigger, if at all, but 6'3" 270 isn't exactly bad. Not the best in pursuit, and not all that aggressive when asked to play in space. Can get his shoulder low, but not a complete natural at doing so. Built like James Harrison, but I'm not sure Harrison at 22 would be an elite 3-4 OLB because he wasn't. Kerrigan: Not a very long player, but proportionate and has good size anyway. He's the tallest of the group at 6'4", and he's in Houston's weight range between 265-270. Seems to have similar flexibility to Houston, and this may become an issue in the 3-4 OLB thing. Had a 3-4 LB-esque workout, some would say. That said, he can be easily juked in pursuit and is not great in space. Thoughts: This is where Kerrigan falters a little. He doesn't move as well as Ayers, and his frame suggests there's room to throw on weight. Houston and Reed again fall behind, and again Reed is far from first.. I like Reed, but I'm starting to believe more and more that he's a 3rd rounder while writing this thing. He's better than guys like Chris Carter or or the great Cliff Matthews, but he's not holding up in this comparison. Intangibles: Ayers: Top notch, with no history of trouble.Captain and leader on his team, and played like a skilled player. Reed: 5th year seniors are given an "oh" kind of treatment, but otherwise he seems fine. Also a leader on his team. Houston: No real incidents, but I hear alot of words like cocky. Being a junior might be considered a knock since he'll carry the "raw" label around. Is he willing to play the 3-4 OLB role? Kerrigan: Also top notch. Leader and all that jazz. Thoughts: Houston lags behind here, but it's entirely possible that's overblown. Ranking them for the Jets: 1: Ayers - He's got the proper size and build for the position. He's the only one of these guys who's proven he can cover and play in space consistently. He can move around within the D over time, and probably steal Thomas' spot from him fairly early. Projects to be a guy who can move around the LB spots and even take snaps at DE. Versatility is a big deal, and Ayers is a guy who looks like he has that card to play. 2: Kerrigan - Loses it for me when it comes to projecting him to the position at the pro level. He's a bit of a stretch at the position and alot of his value in the 3-4 OLB projection is in his college stats and combine numbers. I think he'd do his best work in a 4-3 as a DE. Can easily be flip flopped with Ayers if they choose to let him play in Jason Taylor's pass rushing specialist role for a year or so as he works on other things. That said, those "other things" probably require more than a year of work and may not come along as quickly as you'd hope. He's a guy who's as likely to be asked to gain 15-20 pounds in the pros as he is to hear that he should drop 5-10 pounds. 3: Houston - Not as experienced as the first two, and comes with questions about his ability to project to the position. The raw talent is exciting, but the lack of polish is just as big a turnoff. Not sure such a gamble is necessary for the Jets to take, especially since they're probably trying to get past the Gholston thing. I don't think he has the instincts Kerrigan has that makes me think it's possible he could be a 3-4 OLB option in year 1. 4: Reed - The hottest prospect of the offseason. Who doesn't love Brooks Reed? This GRITTY little engine that could can knock your lights out! No really, I have given some thought to this guy and I don't get why he's a first round candidate. He had a good offseason, he had a solid college career, he threw up some workout numbers...but he's also a 5th year senior, doesn't have any special size or particular skill, isn't proven in space, and lacks the general feel of a blue chip prospect. He's a decent 3-4 OLB prospect, but he's a developmental guy himself.
I like all of these guys. I really do, but I think you are right on with your write up here. Well thought out, very good work, sir. I personally think Reed is a late second-early third type of player in this draft. He has a lot of upside, I agree, especially with his motor. I just don't think he is going to be as good as some fans on this board think he will be. There is a lot of question marks with him, and watching some tape on him makes me question a lot too. I was high on him about a month ago, then I started really looking at him. I'm not convinced anymore. Ayers and Kerrigan are both very talented. I think they are both going to be really successful in the right system. I personally value Ayers more then the rest of them, just because he has a lot to offer and he has the experience to contribute sooner the the rest. I just don't think Kerrigan would fit in well in the Jets defense, at least, not in a time friendly fashion. Kerrigan is very intriguing though, I can't lie. Houston is way to raw for my liking, as you said. I like his "get off" at the LOS, he's athletic, and had a knack for getting to the QB in college. I'm just not convinced he is going to make for a solid pro. Only time will tell though.
Whoever was the original author wrote this without ever watching Justin Houston play. JH constantly took on double team blocks plus played his Jr season (this past year) as an OLB in a brand new 34 scheme that wasn't implemented until late summer. The reason was UGA hired the Cowboys DLine coach to be their DC very late. Houston domninated the strongest conference in college football and is by no means a gamble.
I just want to point out that you totally ignored the fact that Reed has long blond hair, is white and sacked Mark some years ago. That surely has to count for something. (jokes aside, I still wouldn't be pissed if we get Reed at 30).
I'm the author, and I've seen Houston often. He's got flaws, and everyone is a gamble...He's just a bigger gamble than most. Also, as an OLB he can and did get very indecisive. He's the kind of player who'd rather pin his ears back and rush the passer play after play. I know that's treated as the thing that will save this D, but personally I feel like other skills are required to be an OLB in this D.
He's JUST LIKE Clay Matthews! Clay Matthews is a pass rusher (and only a pass rusher) and his team won the Super Bowl last year! Therefore....!
Good thread idea. I'm no draft guru but it seems to me that these guys are all in the running for the Jets pick with the exception of Kerrigan because I don't think he'll make it to #30 and I don't think the Jets will like him enough to consider moving up for him (not that they wouldn't take him if he made it to #30). Ayers makes the most sense, but who knows what will happen come draft day. Someone better might slip through the cracks, or we might not see any value left at #30 and trade back.
I guess I'm the lone dissenter with regards to your post. I see a number of flaws in your reasoning. One, imo background (especially HS) means squat in the NFL. Some kids are late bloomers. Some never received really good coaching. Every year rookies make a name for themselves in the NFL because of their heart, desire and motor. Every year, rookies with pedigreed backgrounds bust. It means nothing. Performance - Reed's stats favorably compare with the others. To say that he doesn't belong in the discussion is absurd in the extreme. A poster on another Jets board posited that Reed was playing out of position at DE. I agree. There, OL could get their hands on him too quickly. At OLB that won't be the case. He needs work on using his hands, tempering his aggressiveness so he doesn't overrun plays, and needs to develop some more pass rush moves, but he has the speed this D needs and the motor and work ethic. He may be overvalued, but if so it's because of the importance of the pass rush. That's the Jets #1 need. If the Jets take him, of course I'd prefer that he be able to develop into an all around good LBer, but if not, that's ok. Even if he never develops into anything more than a 2-down pass rusher, that in itself could put the Jets over the top and into the Super Bowl. If he develops into an all-around LBer it's gravy as far as I'm concerned. He has the best motor of the four. I don't know where you got your info, but saying that Reed is the slowest is laughable it's so wrong. He is the fastest of this group. Ayers is the slowest, with Kerrigan the 2nd slowest. I agree with you that Kerrigan projects best as a DE in a 4-3 alignment. Therefore, I have little or no interest in his coming to the Jets. I'd prefer him over Ayers, but that's about it. I also agree that Ayers is the most flexible. He could play OLB or ILB or maybe even DE. He may be the best in coverage, but if so, that's because he's had the most experience at it. IMO that isn't what the Jets need the most. They need a speedy LBer to pressure the QB and to chase down RBs. Ayers is anything but that. Yes, a strong need is to find a LBer who can cover TEs and RBs over the middle, but with Ayers slow foot speed, I'm not convinced he can do that well in the NFL. It's clear in tapes of watching Ayers, that he consistently gets to spots on the field too late to make plays. Also, in the tapes I saw, most of his big plays and production came against inferior opponents. Against better teams, he tended to disappear. His production declined last season. IMO, that's not a good sign. You yourself said that Ayers isn't the best tackler. When combined with his slow foot speed, that is a deadly combination for the Jets, and he isn't the ideal prospect as far as I'm concerned. Of the four, he would be the only one I would be upset to see the Jets draft. I think it would be a wasted pick. He's no faster than Pace or Thomas, and unless his tackling improved, he'd be a downgrade from Pace or Thomas. The Jets' D needs an infusion of speed. From that vantage point alone, Reed, Houston or even Martez Wilson are the best prospects to make a big impact on the Jets' D. I have lots of concerns about Wilson, so he is not on the same level as Reed or Houston imo. I'll trust Rex and the Scouting Dept.'s take on this, but if they like Reed and Houston, I hope they'll take one of them. I prefer Acho and Sheard over Ayers.
I am thinking along the same lines as you on this one, I prefer Acho, Sheard, or Houston over the rest of this group. In my opinion this D needs a Suggs type linebacker plan and simple.
You like Acho and Sheard over Kerrigan, Ayers and Reed? Not being a dick, but have you watched Acho play, or at least his youtube clips? He's really not that impressive. I wouldn't mind him in the third round, but he's no where near those 3 guys. He doesn't play nearly as fast as his times suggest. Ayers ran a 4.8 at the combine, but he looks as fast as a 4.4 guy on the field. Ayers is polished. Acho might as well have run a 4.9 because that's the kind of speed he displays on the field. Check some youtube's if you haven't already-- I bet you change your mind on that statement.
RIF, BigCotch, RIF. I said I preferred Acho and Sheard over Ayers. Period. I made no correspondence to them with regard to Reed, Kerrigan or Houston. I also said that I hope the Jets will take either Reed or Houston. Nope, I won't change my mind. I've watched every YouTube on those guys multiple times. If you think Ayers plays at a 4.4 speed, then you need your eyes checked. He's beaten to the outside by the RB almost every time and gets there too late to make tackles and he's a shoddy tackler. I think he's gonna be a bust. If the Jets took Acho, it would be in the 2nd or 3rd round after a trade back. It wouldn't be at #30. The same goes for Sheard. Neither are rated a 1st round pick. Both get overvalued because of the value and need for pass rushers, however. To be clear, unless Aldon Smith or someone drops, my draft preferences are as follows: 1. Double dip in the front 7, using both 1st & 3rd round picks, or if there's a trade back, using 2nd and 3rd round picks 2. Stay put and at #30 take Reed or Houston if there; if not, Taylor, or Wilkerson. Kerrigan - 3rd choice 3. Tradeback into the 2nd round and take Sheard, Ellis (depending whether he is rated as a 2nd or 3rd rounder at the time), Wilson, Paea, Acho If I could come away with Sheard in the 2nd and Ellis in the 3rd (even if I had to use the pick I gained from trading down to the 2nd to move up), I'd be very happy. With Reed or Houston and Ellis I'd be ecstatic. Ayers wouldn't even be on my draft board unless he dropped to the 3rd round, even then I'd have to think long and hard about taking him.
My response was to blackssmagic, not your post. He said he liked Acho and Sheard over Ayers, Kerrigan or Reed. I just don't see how anyone can think that unless they haven't really done their homework. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Acho is at best a 3rd round guy. Ayers in the third round? No way he drops our of the top 40. He's too versitile. I love the kid, but that doesn't mean you or anyone else has to like him, that's fine. Maybe I'm too high on him. I'd still prefer Houston. As for what you said--- "With Reed or Houston and Ellis I'd be ecstatic." I'm in 100% agreement. I love Kenrick Ellis. I've seen guys on here put him in the 4th-5th round of their mocks-- I don't think there's any chance. Mayock thinks he can go as high as the middle of the second round. I think that's a bit high for him, but if we could land him with the 3rd, I'd be thrilled.
LOL! Sorry, I guess the joke's on me. I'm the one who needs to learn to read!!! My bad. I agree with you that I find it hard to see how anyone could rate Acho over Reed or Kerrigan, but we all see things differently. I 'm just speculating here, but maybe blackssmagic is a UT fan and has seen Acho play a lot. That can certainly influence our perspectives. Maybe, like me, he doesn't see Kerrigan as a particularly good fit in our 3-4 alignment because of questionable athleticism, so prefers Acho because he thinks he would be a better fit. All the prospects have question marks/flaws. Maybe he thinks Acho will become a better all-around LB and player for the Jets whereas Reed or Kerrigan would be more one-dimensional. FWIW, I don't think Ayers will drop to the 3rd round. Someone will grab him. I was just saying that I wouldn't take him before the 3rd round. It's cool. We all have our differences in what we prefer. The important thing is that we all want the Jets to win. We just have differing viewpoints on what players and positions would best enable us to do that. Yeah, I don't see any way Ellis drops to the 4th or 5th round unless some other character issues surface or maybe he fails a drug test. If Ellis and Reed or Houston develop like I think they can, with those two added to the Jets' front 7, this D could become scary good even without an upgrade at the FS spot other than perhaps Lowery.
Well everyone's entitled to their opinions. I watched most every UGA game the last twenty plus years. His first years in the program he played 43 DE. Last year UGA switched to a 34 and he had to learn a new position. Yes, early in the season he was indecisive, but by midway that was gone. Every player in every draft has flaws. We're not talking about Houston with the #1 pick of the first round. Most prospect websites I've read claim Justin Houston is the safest OLB pick, but not the most talented. Every young DE wants to pin his ears back. Its what he is best at. That doesn't mean he can't or doesn't want to play the run. He is outstanding at it. He showed in his one season as an OLB that he was a college stud. We aren't going to know what kind of pro he will be unless someone has a crystal ball. IMO he is one of the least flawed defensive players in this draft. Every year his production went up unlike Ayers who's game took a huge down turn his SR season. So we will see at the end of the month if you are right and Houston is not selected before 31 or if I'm correct and we pick him or he is selected earlier. I really wanted Mt Cody last year and he lasted to the early third, but usually I'm very accurate. We will see.
Personally, I wouldn't draft Acho or Sheard before any of these guys...They're not bad players...and Acho might not be bad for the situational pass rusher thing, but I don't think either guy has long term starting potential as a 3-4 OLB...I'm not even sure Acho has starting potential at all...he reminds me of a Mark Anderson type. Jonky, I'm not sure what website has called Houston the safest OLB prospect, but I don't come close to believing it.
I don't think Rex would pick a player like Reed. He seems to prefer bigger, stronger pass rushers as opposed to smaller, quicker ones.
I think he'd love him in 3rd or maybe even 2nd round, but in a first round pick size and athleticism will mean alot. Klecko, I think any employer would be interested in the background and accolades of a potential employee. Either way, the article isn't telling you how much to weigh the information. I gave you whatever facts I could, threw in some opinion in the bottom, and you do you from there. I don't weigh the background especially high, but that doesn't mean it's not worth the time if you're interested in getting some info on a player. Also, Reeds stats don't compare well to the other guys because he: 1. Played in more games. 2. Made less plays. 3. Made less tackles. Not to mention he's the oldest of the bunch. If you're drafting a 24 year old rookie, he better be an elite talent like Terrence Newman was. After that, I think I disagree with you completely...we as fans WANT a pass rusher because pass rushers are exciting...a guy who can play the pass by blitzing as well as covering would be yet another great piece to this D and offer tIhe potential for more looks, more blitzes, more coverages...I'm almost as big on Ayers for this D as I am Heyward/Wilkerson...maybe moreso at this point.
yeah Suggs and Harrison are so versatile in their coverage skills. We need a guy who can rush the passer. If he lacks dropping in coverage, I'll take that for the added pressure.
