Projected Draft Order

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by James Hasty, Dec 23, 2013.

  1. James Hasty

    James Hasty Well-Known Member

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    Projected Draft Order (estimated as explained below):

    If every game next week goes down the way the oddsmakers have predicted (GB and Chicago have no line so I called that one a tie) here is the draft order for teams that could potentially go between 7-9 and 8-8 next week (we are 7 point underdogs so this would have us losing to Miami). I used week 14 SOS for tie breakers:

    Pos Team Record SOS Week 17 Opponent Spread Outcome Record
    9 Buffalo Bills 6-9 0.510 Road New England Patriots + 10.5 loss 6-10
    10 Detroit Lions 7-8 0.477 Road Minnesota Vikings + 3.5 loss 7-9
    11 New York Jets 7-8 0.500 Road Miami Dolphins + 6.5 loss 7-9
    12 Tennessee Titans 6-9 0.541 Home Houston Texans - 7 win 7-9
    13 New York Giants 6-9 0.551 Home Washington Redskins -3.5 win 7-9
    14 St. Louis Rams 7-8 0.556 Road Seattle Seahawks + 11.5 loss 7-9
    15 Green Bay Packers 7-7-1 0.454 Road Chicago Bears No line tie 7-7-2
    16 Chicago Bears 8-7 0.452 Home Green Bay Packers No line tie 8-7-1
    17 Pittsburgh Steelers 7-8 0.429 Home Cleveland Browns -7 win 8-8
    18 Baltimore Ravens 8-7 0.449 Road Cinicenatti Bengals + 6 loss 8-8
    19 Dallas Cowboys 8-7 0.495 Home Philadelphia Eagles + 3 loss 8-8
    20 San Diego Chargers 8-7 0.495 Home KC Chiefs + 10 loss 8-8
    21 Miami Dolphins 8-7 0.520 Home NY Jets - 6.5 win 9-7
    22 Philadelphia Eagles 8-7 0.449 Road Dallas Cowboys - 3 win 9-7

    For fun I did another one with us beating Miami but it drops us from pick # 12 to pick # 20:

    Pos Team Record SOS Week 17 Opponent Spread Outcome Record
    9 Buffalo Bills 6-9 0.510 Road New England Patriots + 10.5 loss 6-10
    10 Detroit Lions 7-8 0.477 Road Minnesota Vikings + 3.5 loss 7-9
    11 Tennessee Titans 6-9 0.541 Home Houston Texans - 7 win 7-9
    12 New York Giants 6-9 0.551 Home Washington Redskins -3.5 win 7-9
    13 St. Louis Rams 7-8 0.556 Road Seattle Seahawks + 11.5 loss 7-9
    14 Green Bay Packers 7-7-1 0.454 Road Chicago Bears No line tie 7-7-2
    15 Chicago Bears 8-7 0.452 Home Green Bay Packers No line tie 8-7-1
    16 Pittsburgh Steelers 7-8 0.429 Home Cleveland Browns -7 win 8-8
    17 Baltimore Ravens 8-7 0.449 Road Cinicenatti Bengals + 6 loss 8-8
    18 Dallas Cowboys 8-7 0.495 Home Philadelphia Eagles + 3 loss 8-8
    19 San Diego Chargers 8-7 0.495 Home KC Chiefs + 10 loss 8-8
    20 New York Jets 7-8 0.500 Road Miami Dolphins + 6.5 win 8-8
    21 Miami Dolphins 8-7 0.520 Home NY Jets - 6.5 loss 8-8
    22 Philadelphia Eagles 8-7 0.449 Road Dallas Cowboys - 3 win 9-7
     
  2. Penning10

    Penning10 Member

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    Damn this one game could mean dropping 9 picks in the draft?
     
  3. Jay Bizniss

    Jay Bizniss Well-Known Member

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    Jesus christ... As much as I want to win and spoil the Dolphins chances, fuck that... I want that #11 pick.
     
  4. BakerMaker

    BakerMaker Well-Known Member

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    I am taking that's worst case scenario though no?

    That's taking the Lions/Steelers/Chargers/Rams/Cowboys/Ravens all lose as we'll be tied or ahead of all of those teams taking we beat Miami.

    You'd want Dallas and Green Bay to win since Philly is picking behind us no matter and since GB has a tie on their record 8-8 is worse than 8-7-1 so we'd pick ahead of them. Bears beat GB, GB picks ahead of us but Bears behind us.

    So you wanna root for...for pick purposes if you want NYJ over MIA

    DAL over PHI
    BAL over CIN
    SD over KC
    GB over CHI
    DET over MIN
    STL over SEA
    PIT over CLE
    NO over TB(That's more so for our 3rd round pick)

    If MIA beats NYJ(If you somehow want this)

    BUF over NE
    PIT over CLE
    DET over MIN
    NYG over WSH
    STL over SEA
    TEN over HOU
    NO over TB(That's more so for our 3rd round pick)
     
    #4 BakerMaker, Dec 23, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2013
  5. James Hasty

    James Hasty Well-Known Member

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    No, not the worst case scenario (not on purpose anyway).

    I just went with the odds makers (whether the spread was 3 points or 15 points did not matter). I included the lines so you could flip the 3 point games if you want to see how it would look.

    20th is the worst we could do because the Dolphins have a tougher schedule (based on week 14 anyway) and the Eagles losing means the Cowboys winning - a wash for us.

    Also, if we beat the Dolphins, the Chicago / Green Bay game not ending in a tie would move us up from 20 to 19 (this game is irrelevant to us if we do lose to Miami).
     
  6. James Hasty

    James Hasty Well-Known Member

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    I was worried that beating the Browns would have hurt us but aside from not being able to catch Buffalo it did not have much impact.
     
  7. BakerMaker

    BakerMaker Well-Known Member

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    Eagles won yesterday...they have 9 wins. They can lose by 50 next week and they will still be behind us since 9-7>8-8. Dallas on the other hand with a win or tie jumps past us with a 9-7 or 8-7-1 record so its in the best interest for our pick to root for Dallas. Dallas wins or ties=They pick behind us.

    The CHI/GB game on the other hand is a wash. CHI wins, GB is 7-8-1 while we're 8-8 so they are just ahead of us. GB wins, CHI is 8-8 which means its purely on SOS while GB is 8-7-1 which is just behind us. So it is better for GB to win that way we got a shot to be in front of CHI pending of course of SOS.
     
  8. 74

    74 Well-Known Member

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    basically beating MIA really screws us bad for the draft. meaningless game, not worth it.
     
  9. RexLuvzSnax

    RexLuvzSnax Member

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    Wow this is not good news! You always want to see a W on sunday but i think this week i wouldn't be so upset with a close loss >:eek:
     
  10. James Hasty

    James Hasty Well-Known Member

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    A tie would probably put us around 15-16.
     
  11. BakerMaker

    BakerMaker Well-Known Member

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    Current Draft Order(Listing the 6-8 win teams as they are the only ones that matter for our order)

    9) TEN
    10) NYG
    11) BUF
    12) DET
    13) PIT
    14) NYJ
    15) STL
    16) GB
    17) DAL
    18) BAL
    19) SD
    20) MIA
    21) CHI


    Right now the only teams who beat us SOS according to playoffstatus.com's SOS is DET/BAL/PIT/GB/CHI....meaning the loser of GB/CHI will pick ahead of us no matter what if we win. If we win, we pick behind DET and PIT no matter what the outcome of their games. Its vital Baltimore beats Cincy becuase we win and Baltimore loses, they are ahead of us.

    So theres a good shot we pick either 15 or 16 or 17 if we win. Depends on what the Ravens and Cowboys do. We are tied with Dallas pct. wise at the moment, could be a coin flip scenario.

    If the Jets lose and PIT/DET/NYG/BUF/TEN wins...............we at worst pick 10th and I think there might be a tiebreaker(via coin flip) between NYJ and TEN but don't quote me on that. So we could pick 9th if all falls right if we lose.
     
  12. BakerMaker

    BakerMaker Well-Known Member

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    BEST CASE SCENARIO:

    NYJ loses
    BAL wins
    SD loses
    TEN wins
    NYG wins
    BUF wins
    PIT wins
    DET wins

    BAL beats MIA via tiebreaker....Baltimore in, Miami out and Jets pick higher. This is what you want folks the most. TEN/NYG/BUF/PIT/DET winning helps our draft pick case.
     
  13. DoubleDecker87

    DoubleDecker87 Well-Known Member

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    Dropping 11 to 16-20 range would be awful. If we win this week we'd actually be losing.
     
  14. 74

    74 Well-Known Member

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    oh but not wanting a win makes you a terrible fan that deserves 44 years of losing, remember
     
  15. James Hasty

    James Hasty Well-Known Member

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    Buffalo beating NE potentially moves up a spot but it ain't gonna happen.
     
  16. BakerMaker

    BakerMaker Well-Known Member

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    Further reason why BAL winning is HUGE this Sunday. That's so big for so many reasons regardless of our result.

    BAL/CIN is a 1PM game, BUF/NE is a 4PM game. NE will scoreboard watch to see if CIN loses, and if the Bengals do lose....NE has a first round bye secured and all they are playing for is homefield since they play same time as Denver but just like BUF/NE, you expect Denver to beat up Oakland so New England might just take their starters out after halftime if the Broncos score is ugly.

    If Buffalo can't beat Ryan Mallett and a bunch of a 2nd and 3rd stringers in one half....then well.
     
  17. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 2018 Thread of the Year Award Winner

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    Fuck losing another game to the Dolphins, c'mon guys
     
  18. 74

    74 Well-Known Member

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    Nice. hope Baltimore wins. I'll root for us to win, hate the fish and I want Rex to get another year. hopefully your scenario works out so we won't drop that far with a win.
     
  19. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    this

    i don't care what is at stake, fuck the fins, i want to knock them out of the play offs. our best player on the team was picked 30th. our biggest bust was drafted 6th. its not where you pick its who you pick
     
  20. laxin

    laxin Active Member

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    This could be the difference between Sammy Watkins and Marquise Lee. Thats a huge difference.
     

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