We've just entered into the dead-zone of the NFL off-season, so I figured a good way to kill some time would be to make a predictions thread. I know most of the people around here expect the offense to be better (no Shotty) so it should be interesting to see where you guys think the additional offensive production will be coming from. So I'm looking for predictions from the following four categories (I put 2011 production in parentheses for a baseline) Shonn Greene (283 touches 1265 yards 6 TDs) All the other RBs (202 touches 1083 yards 4 TDs) Dustin Keller and Santonio Holmes (119 touches 1496 yards 13 TDs) All the other WRs and TEs (112 touches 1287 yards 11 TDs) Please be sure to include touches, yards, and TDs in your predictions. I also purposely left out QBs, I don't want this to turn into a discussion about them, specifically Tebow. DO NOT POST TEBOW PREDICTIONS HERE Have at it, it'll be fun to look back at the end of the year and see who was right about what.
Shonn Greene (285 touches 1300 yards 7 TDs) All the other RBs (220 touches 1100 yards 2 TDs) Dustin Keller and Santonio Holmes (120 touches 1500 yards 15 TDs) All the other WRs and TEs (100 touches 950 yards 7 TDs) I don't see a significant change in talent, so I don't see a reason for a significant change in production.
Shonn Greene (340 touches, 1500 yards, 9 tds) (I expect him to be getting a boatload of action since hes likely quite a bit ahead of the other backs on the team) All the other RBs ( 200 touches 900 yards 5 TDs) (This number goes way down if both Ganaway Bilal aren't nfl ready) Dustin Keller and Santonio Holmes (150 touches 1800 yards 15 TDs) (The fact that DK missed some time last year, and Holmes being a diva alone should lead to an increase in these numbers. The loss of LDT and Plax, should also increase the amount of passes these guys get) All the other WRs and TEs (170 touches 1800 yards 10 TDs) (Kerley should be good for 50 catches 600 yards minimum imo. Hill is good for another 40-60 for another 600-800 yards. Then you just got a few other guys mixed in here and there) I don't see a significant change in talent, so I don't see a reason for a significant change in production.
Shonn Greene (204 touches 914 yards 4 TDs) All the other RBs (excluding Tebow) (110 touches 650 yards 3 TDs) Dustin Keller and Santonio Holmes (130 touches 1664 yards 15 TDs) All the other WRs and TEs (108 touches 1107 yards 9 TDs) That's 26 pass TDs and 5 rush TDs, again excluding Tebow's numbers running the ball.
You don't think 870 yards of additional offense is a significant change? If you add that to last year's total that would have taken them from the 25th ranked offense to the 13th. Seems significant to me.
I think he was copying and pasting your previous post haha. Might have forgotten to delete that line.
Shonn Greene (250 touches 960 yards 6 TDs) Rushing (270 carries, 1200 yards, 6 TDs) - I can see him having a few more carries compared to last season, andrunning more efficiently with fewer loaded boxes. I don't think his TD production will increase however due to different red zone schemes that the Jets might use. Receiving (20 catches, 150 yards, 0 TDs) - I think they'll have slightly less need to dump off this season. Plus I'm hoping one of the other backs begins stealing carries on 1st and 2nd downs. All the other RBs (310 touches 1450 yards, 13 TDs) That Wildcat Guy (60 touches, 300 yards, 6 TDs) - Not much to be said. The other RBs Rushing (200 carries, 800 yards, 5 TDs) - If one of the other backs steps up, I can see them taking a large number of these carries. This would be putting us around 2009 level of touches in the backfield, which is probably what we're looking for with Sparano's offense. The other RBs Receiving (50 catches, 350 yards, 2 TDs) - I'm hoping one of these guys steps up as a solid 3rd down back at the very least and makes plays with his hands. I could see McKnight catches a TD or two motioned out. Dustin Keller and Santonio Holmes (120 catches, 1650 yards, 14 TDs) Santonio Holmes (70 catches, 1050 yards, 7 TDs) - To me, Holmes is more of an underneath YAC guy who isn't the main target in the redzone, reducing his TD count. I'm predicting that having a deep threat opposite in either Schilens or Hill will open up the underneath routes more for him, and therefore I'm putting him at under his 2009 season, and around where he might have projected during 2010 with a full season. Dustin Keller (50 catches, 600 yards, 7 TDs) - Just had a look at the NFL.com stats, and interestingly he's mainly used between our own 20-50 yard lines, while scoring nearly all of his TDs in the red zone (i.e. not really a big play TD kinda guy). Based on losing Burress, Cumberland being healthy, and a feeling that our offense will stall a little less, I'd say his yardage drops to just below his 2010 levels, but he becomes more of a red zone target and picks up a career high 7 TDs. All the other WRs and TEs (128 catches 1500 yards 14 TDs) Cumberland and Co. (30 catches, 400 yards, 3 TDs) - I can see Cumberland stealing a few of Keller's touches. Maybe averaging 1-2 a game, while the rest catch 6 between them on dumpoffs. I'll put Cumberland on catching 3 of those passes for a TD. Hill and Schilens (45 catches, 650 yards, 8 TDs) - I'm hoping that between these two, we get the production that was given by Braylon Edwards during his tenure here. I'm guessing here that some of that redzone slack is picked up by these tall athletic receivers on some of those fade routes. Kerley and others (53 catches, 450 yards, 3 TDs) - I could see Kerley averaging around 3 catches a game out of the slot, while whoever else lands on the roster catches 5 balls total here and there. I would have said 4-5 if I didn't think we'd be in 1 or 2 WR sets a lot to pound the ball.
I don't know how anyone can make reasonable predictions here without knowing anything about what Sparano is going to be like as an offensive coordinator. I really have no clue what the offense is going to be like.
Shonn Greene (291 carries 1222 yards 8td) All the other RBs (209 touches 1127 yards 4 TDs) Dustin Keller and Santonio Holmes (136 touches 1761 yards 14 TDs) All the other WRs and TEs (112 touches 1687 yards 9 TDs)
I don't have a clue on the numbers, but.... Greene won't break 1,000 yards Tebow will be the sencond leader rusher on the team Hill will lead the team in TDs and receiving yards. Most our games will be low scoring and ugly, but we will have the #1 rushing offense, and #1 overall defense.
I honestly think people on this board overstate the importance of the OC. Don't get me wrong, coaching can be a critical factor, but at the end of the day it's still about the talent on the field.
He doesnt just coach, its not like hes a qbcoach or trainer. He calls every single play. You gotta realize every single play is a battle of chess with the OC vs the DC. What pieces you have vs he is is quite important, but at least equally important is who is pulling the strings on every single play.
I understand what you're saying, and I don't outright disagree with you. But you know what plays Sporano is gonna call? The ones he feels the talent on the field will best be able to execute. Now, if you have a lot of good players and guys who can do multiple things well, the coach can run wild with his imagination and make a big impact. But when your talent base is limited, and you only have a few good players (which I think is the case with this year's Jets team) the impact is limited. Sporano could be the greatest OC in NFL history, but if Hill can't run anything but a go-route he's not gonna be able to use him for much.
True but anyone who watched the Jets last year knows that the problem was the coach DID run wild with his imagination and DID make a big impact. The ridiculous motions on every single play, having every player and his mother having to know a bajillion different reads it was ridiculous. The average nfl player isnt that bright, he acted like half the guys wouldnt be working in fast food if it wasnt for their talent. At least with Sparano it is the expectation that shit will be simple. Meaning what happens is going to be a factor of the players talent, and not how bright they are or are not
