Pre-combine NFL Mock Draft

This is my first NFL mock draft of the year and features just one trade by our Jets, which I feel is very possible given the way the board falls. I'd like to get some discussion on not just the Jets pick, but other teams' as well.


1. Kansas City: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
The Chiefs need to move forward. They have some talented players on their team, but what they lack most of all is a franchise QB. It’s unlikely the Chiefs see him as the top overall talent, but it is likely they see him as the player in this draft most likely to make an impact for them. Geno is a film-junkie and a fiery competitor and Kansas City won’t pass on the opportunity to get their future QB. OT is not a need for KC; Eric Winston is a very good RT and Branden Albert is an above average to excellent left tackle. Even if he leaves via free agency, they drafted Donald Stephenson at the top of the third round last year. The Chiefs would be smart to lockup Albert (and Bowe). If KC acquires Alex Smith or Nick Foles, then DL Star Lotuleti will likely be the pick.

2. Jacksonville: Star Lotuleti, DT, Utah
The Jaguars have some talent at DE. Andre Branch was drafted in the top of the second in 2012. Jason Babin was claimed off waivers during the season and Jeremy Mincey is also signed. Obviously, they got poor production here, but they do have some players. Another trouble spot is the interior. Star Lotuleti is a dynamic player in that he is not only a nose-tackle type, but he can also push the pocket. The Jaguars have swung and missed on some early DTs in recent drafts, but they’re confident Lotuleti will give their defense an immediate boost.

3. Oakland: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St
The Raiders are in a similar position to Jacksonville in terms of their defensive line. The Raiders need more production from this area. Expect many of the faces from last year’s team not to be back. Here, Oakland gets one of the top defensive ends in the draft with Werner. They also consider Shariff Floyd and other pass-rushers. The Raiders gave up two first round picks for Carson Palmer, so don’t expect them to spend yet another on a QB, especially in this year’s draft.

4. Philadelphia: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Free agent signee Demetress Bell was a tremendous bust and was cut. Jason Peters suffered a couple gruesome injuries in recent years and you wonder if he’ll be the same player. Joeckel is arguably the top prospect in the draft and a guy projected to be a top offensive tackle in the NFL. The Eagles are happy to take him here. Right now, they are also likely fielding trade-up calls from teams like San Diego.

5. Detroit: Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
Even if DE Cliff Avril is resigned, the Lions need a pass-rusher opposite him. DE Kyle Vanden Bosch is near the end of his career and a young guy is needed. Moore was ultra productive and is an undersized end, similar to Avril. I wonder if the Lions would go with two similar players at end or if they’d opt for more of a left-end type, like Vanden Bosch. They also consider Alabama CB DeMarcus Milner here.

6. Cleveland: Jarvis Jones, OLB/DE, Georgia
The Browns need a 3-4 pass-rusher opposite Jabaal Sheard and Jones fits the bill. Perhaps the most talented player in the draft, Jones drops due to well-documented medical concerns. The Browns take a chance on him here believing that if he stays healthy, he’s a double-digit sack guy. The Browns also consider WR Cordarelle Patterson to add another weapon to their offense. If they are concerned by Jones, ends such Barkevious Mingo, Dion Jordan or Ezekial Ansah are available too.

7. Arizona: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
The Cardinals do the right thing and select the franchise left tackle they hope can be what they envisioned Levi Brown would. Kevin Kolb wasn’t awful last year before going down with an injury and there are no QBs really worth this spot. They can certainly choose a guy like Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson or others with their second round pick, but there won’t be anyone near Eric Fisher’s caliber there.

8. Buffalo: Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
The Bills can go a few different ways with this pick, but they opt to build around their starting QB, who may or may not be Ryan Fitzpatrick. Stevie Johnson is one of the NFL’s best, but they have little opposite him. Patterson is a large, speedy vertical threat who could certainly be selected quite high, especially if he blows up the combine. The Bills also consider a DE as Mark Anderson was a bust and its possible he gets released. They can also go for a LB like Manti Te’o if they feel he’s worthy of a top ten choice. If they fall in love with a QB, they could also take him here. If Geno Smith available, I’d think he would be the pick.

Tampa Bay trades 1(13) & 3(73) to New York Jets for 1(9)

9. Tampa Bay (f/NYJ): DeMarcus Milner, CB, Alabama
I wonder if there will be many trade-ups this year due to the general consensus that the draft is similarly talented from the early-to-middle first through the early second. The Bucs are a talented team and can afford to give up a third round choice to the pick-hungry Jets to get the best defensive back in the draft. CB is likely the Bucs top need and Milner could have gone in the top five. The Titans, Chargers and Dolphins each could be in the market for a CB, so Tampa moved up to get their guy.

10. Tennessee: Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
This pick can go a lot of different ways as well, but Tennessee opts for an upgrade in the interior line. The Titans need to put CJ2K in the best position to succeed while also keeping Jack Locker upright. Warmack is one of the top guard prospects in the last decade and projects as a Pro Bowl caliber player. The Titans noticed an immediate difference in their offense with this addition.

11. San Diego: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
The Chargers stand pat and still get a top left tackle prospect. The athletic Lane Johnson may still be somewhat of a work in progress, but he showed very well at the Senior Bowl and will likely be selected in the top half of the first. The Chargers got awful play from their revolving door of bookends last year. Philip Rivers wasn’t the same last year, so the Chargers commit to putting their franchise QB in a better situation.

12. Miami: Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida
This is a guy who apparently can go as high as #2 or #3. A fast-riser, Floyd is a disruptive player who is still surprisingly available, so the Dolphins don’t hesitate to make this upgrade to their defensive line. I can envision a team like Dallas trading up for him if he lasts.

13. New York Jets (f/TB): Dion Jordan, OLB/DE, Oregon
The Jets trade down and still get a player they were targeting all along. Currently, the Jets are starting OLB Garrett McIntyre and Ricky Sapp, who’s never played in a game before at OLB. Granted, they’d probably get similar production from these guys as they did from Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas, but they’ve waited long enough to find their impact pass rusher. Jordan should be that guy and a fine value here. They also consider pass rushers Barkevious Mingo and Ezekial Ansah, but Jordan has experience dropping into coverage and is the better overall prospect. They also briefly consider guys like S Kenny Vaccarro or WR Keenan Allen, but Jordan is the best option here.

14. Carolina: Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
This seems somewhat high for Williams, but he might make his money at the combine. Williams is the run-stuffing NT type the Panthers need to pair with Dwan Edwards, if he’s resigned. The Panthers missed on early DT picks in recent years and need help inside. The Panthers also consider S Kenny Vaccarro and even a WR, but an interior lineman makes the most sense and they have their choice at #14.

15. New Orleans: Barkevious Mingo, OLB/DE, LSU
In transitioning to the 3-4, the Saints need pass rushers and Mingo can be that guy. Undersized, but speedy, Mingo was somewhat inconsistent in college, but projects similarly in some ways to the guy drafted at #15 here last year, Bruce Irvin.

16. St. Louis: Kenny Vaccarro, S, Texas
Vaccarro’s name has been mentioned as options for other teams thus far and the Rams are happy to get him here. The Rams need a playmaker at WR, offensive line help and help at LB and S. They have some talent at receiver and hope Brian Quick can break, so they opt for the guy who best fits need and value with Vaccarro. Almost unanimously the top safety, Vaccarro projects to either free or strong and provides an immediate impact on defense.

 

17. Pittsburgh: Keenan Allen, WR, California
The Steelers are unlikely to bring back Mike Wallace, and that’s probably a good decision. They still have talented speedsters Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, but are somewhat thing at WR anyway. Keenan Allen is a different kind of player than these two and brings something different to the table. Allen adds another dimension to the Steelers offense and is a solid value here. They also need that big-time RB and consider Eddie Lacy, but opt to wait for the next round. A linebacker is also considered here.

18. Dallas: Kawann Short, DT, Purdue
The Cowboys are transitioning to a 4-3 defense and could use some interior help opposite Jay Ratliff. This is a good time to be seeking interior line help and there are several prospects here. Sheldon Richardson could certainly be the pick, but he drops due to character concerns. Short is a riser and is what the Cowboys are looking for.

19. New York Giants: Ezekial Ansah, DE, BYU
This pick has become a cliché quickly, but Ansah is a nice value here and could go in the top ten. The Giants won’t bring back DE Osi Umenyiora and could use a young pass rusher to team with Pierre-Paul and Tuck, who is aging and highly paid himself. The Giants could also opt for a LB such as Kevin Minter or Manti Te’o or an offensive lineman such as DJ Fluker, but go for a potential star in Ansah, who can come on slowly and learn behind two of the NFL’s best.

20. Chicago: Manti Te’o, ILB, Notre Dame
Te’o was considered to be a top ten pick before the National Title Game and the bizarre girlfriend hoax story. Let’s not forget how great of a player he was throughout his career however. Urlacher will be entering his 14th season and may be near the end. Te’o is a talented, fiery leader that could be the next in line of great Chicago Bears linebackers. To me, this is an awesome fit.

21. Cincinnati: Kevin Minter, LB, LSU
The Bengals have had some misses in recent years drafting linebackers, such as Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga, but they are again in the market and decide to try again with Minter. The Bengals are a talented team and don’t have too many glaring needs and can go in several different ways here, but opt for a linebacker to team with Vontaze Burfict.

22. St. Louis (f/Wsh): D.J. Fluker, OL, Alabama
This is a good pick for the Rams who need help at tackle and guard. Fluker is a mauler who projects to tackle or inside and can open holes for whoever is carrying the ball. Despite not projecting to the left side, Fluker could go even higher than this.

23. Minnesota: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
This is a guy who I think might end up rising in the coming months. After an ultra-productive season, Hopkins is on the radar for teams in the first round. The Vikings badly need talent at WR even if Percy Harvin isn’t traded.

24. Indianapolis: Jonathan Cooper, OG, UNC
Despite a shockingly quick return to playoff form, the Colts need a lot of help still. GM Ryan Grigson did a phenomenal job of assembling a playoff team out of rookies, journeymen and castoffs and with another draft with that much success will really put the Colts in position to win the division. One of their top priorities is upgrading the offensive line. Cooper is the best lineman available and some feel is almost as good of a prospect as Chance Warmack. The Colts can go in many directions here, but they need to protect Andrew Luck.

25. Seattle: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
A steal in terms of talent here and a guy who somebody might very well move up to get, the Seahawks are ecstatic to get Richardson this late. The card gets to the podium faster for this pick than any other in the first round as value fits need perfectly.

26. Green Bay: Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
The Packers are a talented bunch, but really need a better option at RB. They feature a variety of running backs, none of them being impact guys. Lacy is likely the top runner in the draft and the pass-first Packers take some pressure off Aaron Rodgers and the wideouts with the addition of Lacy.

27. Houston: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
The Texans still need that upgrade opposite Andre Johnson. Kevin Walter is a decent player, but he’s aging and an upgrade has been sought for a while and. DeVier Posey and Lester Jean are likely not the answers as the #2. Austin is one of the most explosive playmakers in the draft and a guy I feel can really climb draftboards if he runs well.

28. Denver: Sylvester Williams, DT, UNC
The Broncos need an upgrade on the interior line and as I’ve mentioned earlier, this is the draft to do so. Denver has a choice of guys who are solid values here, but opt for Williams. If Denver is still angry enough at their secondary’s abysmal performance in the playoffs, they can opt for a CB or S and some guys are still available here who fit that bill, but the value in the back end of the 2nd round won’t be that much different than it is now.

29. New England: Xavier Rhodes, DB, Florida St
This is the guy who Denver likely considered strongly at #28 as well and New England lands a great value. Rhodes is a big CB who could project to safety as well. It seems like the Pats are upgrading their secondary every year. Perhaps this year they’ll find their answers.

30. Atlanta: Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
Tony Gonzalez is still playing at a very high level, but he might retire. Ertz is a great value here and fills a position of need. Even if Gonzalez doesn’t retire, the birds can use an heir apparent and Ertz is that guy.

31. San Francisco: Brandon Williams, NT, Missouri Southern St
Last year, many began to project D-II star OL Amini Silotolu for the 49ers in the first round. This year, I’ll do it again with Senior Bowl mega-star Brandon Williams, who can do it all. The 49ers take a gamble on this small school player feeling that he has the potential to be a star in the NFL.

32. Baltimore: Matt Elam, S, Florida
Ed Reed might be gone in 2013, but even if he isn’t the Ravens need a successor and Elam could be that guy. Elam is a big hitter and a playmaker that could stabilize their secondary. If Anquan Boldin is released, which would surprise me, look for a WR here.

 

Thank you. And now we're starting to hear how some view Damontre Moore or Bjoern Werner less highly than we may think. I've seen mocks where these guys go in the 10-15 range. Not sure I buy it, but it'd be great if one of these guys slipped. I guess by this time next week we'll learn a lot more