Okay, I'm going to take a lot of heat for this. 1 it's a mock off season and will be totally wrong (okay maybe not totally, I might get one or 2 players right) 2. It's extremely aggressive. 3. I make some assumptions based my feelings for the combine and interviews. 4. some of my values may be off either on contracts or in the case of trades their value. But frankly I'm bored and figured I'd jump on the off season mock bandwagon. In the end it means nothing. Philosophy I chose to follow is that the offense is going to take a couple seasons to turn around and in the meantime the defense will have to carry the team. so I chose a model of using free agency to bolster the defense and the draft to build the offense. I also chose to be very aggressive. And let the criticism begin. Cuts. Percy Harvin Chris Johnson Calvin Pace Justin Babin Extend. Wilkerson, 5 year deal 55M, 10M signing bonus. This puts his pay in line with Tamba Hali. Contract slightly front loaded at 14M in the first year. Tenders Damon Harrison 2nd rounder (Falcons offer longer bigger deal and Jets don't match.) Resign Kenrick Ellis 2 year deal 8M total. Trades (going to be some screams coming) Quinton Coples To the Titans for a 4th round pick. Jeremy Kerley to the Vikings for a 3rd round pick Breno Giacomini to the 49ers for a 6th round pick. Free Agency. Pernell McPhee LB 4 years 40 million. Joe Barksdale RT 4 years 24M Corey Peters DT 3 years 12M Mason Foster LB 3 years 15M Rahim Moore S 3 years 4.5M Jason Worilds 4 Years 55M Now, plugging the numbers in to http://overthecap.com/calculator/new-york-jets/ that leaves about 17M for the draft and going in to the season. The Draft The Bucs take Mariotta #1 The Titans take Leonard Williams #2 Jags take Amari Cooper #3 Raiders take Kevin White #4 Redskins take Ereck Flowers #5 (I agree with a lot of people that he rises) Jets draft...Jamies Winston (granted this could just as easily be Mariotta but I think at the end of the day the Bucs go with Mariotta as the character guy Lovie loves. 2a Phillip Dorsett (WR) 2b (from Falcons for Snacks) Duke Johnson RB. 3a Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (1st round talent but I think the ACL knocks him down in to late day 2) 3b Codey Prewitt (from the Vikings pick, granted he may be gone by this point but for now I have him here, I think after the combine several safeties are going to rise up the boards and knock Prewitt down) 4a (from the Titans) dorial Beckham Green (this is probably the single most controversial thing in here. DBG is clear first round talent but there are a lot of murmours from front office people indicating that he may be a big faller in the draft. I think there's a fairly good chance teams shy away from him much like Da'Rick Rodgers did in 2013 when he was considered a 1st round prospect but wound up UDFA, I think i'ts more probable given the Gordon situation in Cleveland and the NFL's heavier penalties now for violations. I"ve read one scout state that has said he's going to drop in to the third day due to his off field issues). Alternative pick here is Austin Hill WR. 4b Denzel Perryman. I like Denzel but I think he drops as several ILB's move ahead of him post combine, I think his combine numbers hurt his draft stock...but again this might be an overstatement. 5 Corey Robinson OT 6 (from 49ers) Cam Thomas CB (I think he'll go up on some boards post combine, but I'm hoping he won't.) 7 Kysheon Jarrett SS (Like Cam I think he'll rise up boards but there are a lot of sites dropping his stock right now). UDFA Jarvis Harrison OG Texas A&M Michael Orakop OLB Texas State Junior Salt OG Utah Corey Grant RB Auburn Devin Mahina TE BYU Okay, I know it's somewhat maddenesque in total scope, but I do think each individual part (aside from some trade values) are all feasible, just not likely all in conjunction.
I do know I neglected the Cornerback position. I could have gone without one of the LB's and done a CB but felt it was better to build a bad ass nasty pass rush that doesn't give the opposing QB time to find someone open and thus leave the CB's less exposed. Admittedly probably an oversite on my behalf.
Wow. Pace and Babin were already excercises so there not getting cut until at least August. 4 million a year for Kendrick Ellis? Coples traded for a 4th. At least let Bowles see what he can do with a young former #1 pick. Kerley had 38 catches and 1 TD, don't think he's netting a 3rd round pick. Rahim Moore 1.5 million a year? This guy is going to get paid big. Draft wise I think Dorsett would be a huge reach. Getting rid of a Harvin and Kerley would mean he was thrown into as the #2 with other young guys and rookies. Doesn't make a lot sense with a rookie QB not to bring in at least 1 FA.
Pace and Babin can both be cut at any time, they only exercised the rights and brought the roster bonuses into effect, I think the total for both of them was around 500k give or take a bit. Coples in the mock was traded after bringing in two 3 LB free agents, he just had no spot. Kerley was a tough call on my behalf. I may have over valued him as a 3rd round pick but there's no way I let him go for less than a 3rd either. That said Kerley is a reliable receiver but he's not flashy and he's been a main target mostly because the Jets haven't had much in the way of receivers. Although when I made the trade I thought I was going to draft a third receiver but when I mocked the draft (and I mocked every pick of the draft) the receivers I wanted weren't available. In a way Kerley was traded as a long term look towards the future. Most view Dorsett as a 2nd round pick now and post combine he may move up in to the late first round, he's a true speed receiver and while he doesn't have the best hands in the world He's not stone handed either. He forces defenses to stay honest in coverage.
Then why comment? People who say they don't listen and then comment only prove that they do indeed listen.
They can get cut whenever but it makes no sense to cut them right after paying them the roster bonus. They both will no doubt he here for camp in August. It just doesn't make sense to release Harvin and trade Kerley without having a backup plan before the draft. Dorsett may have his stock rise but I don't know about first round. The most shocking numbers were Kendrick Ellis getting 4 a year and Rahim Moore getting 1.5.
Rahim was a typo on my behalf, I put in his per year number rather than his total number, my bad, it should have been 3 years 13.5 instead of 4.5. RE the backup plan, I knew I'd get at least 2 recievers I liked because of the number of receivers that I like in the draft.
Ego alert. I never said it was how the draft would turn out, or the off season. In fact I said at the beginning I'd be lucky to have more than 1 or 2 players correct out of the entire off season mock. I also said that it was abit maddenesque. By posting your comment you just illustrate your ignorance.
Well first of all, this may not be what people find to be realistic (which never actually happens anyway as every draft and offseason brings many, many, many unforeseen surprises), but it'd be nice to have constructive and respectful discussions about the offseason. However, here are my thoughts on this one... Fine with most of the cuts. Babin and Pace are obviously no locks, but I think Babin was quite productive last year and at his salary seems like an ideal vet to me. I'd tender Harrison with a 1st. He's young and perhaps the best run-stuffing NT in the league. So I don't like trading him for a 2nd. MAYBE a 1st if the offer came along, but especially if you sign Kenrick Ellis at 4M per year (which, according to overthecap, would make him the league's 3rd highest paid 3-4 NT), Harrison wouldn't be THAT much more for a long term deal. I don't see a reason to necessarily believe Kenrick Ellis would be nearly as good as Harrison. I'd like to see him signed as depth, but not necessarily to start. No problem trading Coples if Bowles and Rodgers don't deem him a fit in the 3-4, which seems very possible. I think he's potentially worth a lot more than a 4th, but that's realistic to me and I'd project a similar trade. Kerley for a 3rd is a little much IMO and I'm not crazy about trading him unless they really overhaul the receivers for the bettter. Breno for a 6th is slightly realistic I guess, but taken altogether, that's a lot of trades and very Madden-esque. I don't think Tannenbaum could trade this much. Quick aside here, put a depth chart together to keep this in order. So much overhaul here it's very hard to keep track of. Woah, LOT of money invested in 3-4 OLBs there. Who exactly is Joe Barksdale and why is he worth 6M/year? He had just about the same PFF grade as Breno for what it's worth. Do you think he's that much better than Breno at his lesser salary? Is Mason Foster a fit in the 3-4? He's very undersized I believe. Rahim Moore could be a nice signing and I even like McPhee, but not at 10M per year. From everything I'm reading, Tampa likes Winston and he fits what they're doing better. But as you mention, it's very early in this draft process. But tough to pass on a QB for the Jets. No strong reactions to the draft otherwise; Duke Johnson would be nice and Dorsett would too. Not sure about DGB. I see where you're going with Perryman, especially if he doesn't run well and comes up short in measurements. In the 4th would be a major steal, but even Chris Borland was a 3rd round pick and he was a sensation as a rookie, so I think teams could learn a lesson. I'd jump at Perryman in the 3rd if he made it there. Two of the top 3 wideouts are rookies in the 2nd and 4th round. Plus Amaro is still very much developing... Plus a rookie QB and rookie RB. And who knows who at one of the guard spots. LOT of inexperience there. Not acceptable to me. Who plays OG?? Gaping hole there. And CB???? All we get is a 3rd round rookie?? That's a SERIOUS flaw especially for another HC and defensive scheme so dependent on them. Dee Milliner is the veteran CB on that team. We dump just about 100M into the OLB position and about ~8M into the CB position via rookies. Overall, this offseason looks like a mess. Nothing personal and I certainly don't mean to be rude, but there's way to much happening that, even you admit is not realistic, and two of the biggest holes on the team go greatly unfilled, especially in such a scenario with so many draft picks. I think this team would be a potential disaster
Kerley and Breno are overpaid, we will get nothing for them in a trade. You are spending $4 mil per year to fill a hole at DT that you created by giving Snacks away for a round two tender. It is more likely that Rex Ryan or Bill Bellicheck will take him for a lower, cheaper second rounder than the Falcons pick (which may as well be a first rounder). Tender Snacks at a first rounder and we probably keep him. Again, you are overspending on linebackers after giving Coples away for almost nothing. Your round 3 and 4 picks are borderline first rounders or high second rounders who will not be there. I know it is the Redskins but if they take Flowers at #5 overall Snyder should be forced to sell the team by someone who knows something, anything about football. This one just doesn't fly.
the 4th round picks are admittedly a stretch, but my thoughts on it are that I really think DGB has a high chance of falling due to character issues and teams not being willing to invest day one or day 2 premium picks due to the risk and the NFL's developing hardline on off the field issues. Several scouts off the record have said they don't see him going before round 3 because of off the field issues. That of course doesn't mean that he'll fall, some team may take the chance and make him even a 1st round pick. Regarding Perryman, this years draft is very deep at the linebacker position and I think Perryman's combine will push him down the list in to the 3rd or 4th round. In this case it's a lot like last years draft at WR where you had guys who in most drafts would go in day 1-or day 2 who wound up in the 4th-5th rounds last year. Ifo is a borderline first round pick if healthy. But coming off an ACL may push him down the boards in to the late 2nd, early 3rd. Prewitt, I've been rethinking that one and this years draft is pretty short on true Safety talent so him in the third is probably a pipe dream if teams draft on need vs talent at other positions.
Yes the guard position got ignored, in fact I wound up ignoring the Oline far more than I had intended to but the value wasn't there for O-line when I had the picks when I mocked the full draft. I know that the Bucs are pretty sold on Winston, I'm just playing a pre combine hunch that Mariota will blow away the interview process and the Bucs perspective changes. That's based on nothing but a guess on my behalf. RE NT, Snacks is a very good run stuffer, but he's basically a 2 down NT in a league that's basically a pass oriented league. Corey Peters isn't as good against the run but he's a better push guy in the middle to collapse pockets and he's more versatile in play style and positioning. And that leads me to how the defense is redisgned in this version, it's a defense based on speed and versatility and keyed to get after the QB and to disrupt plays in the backfield. The philosophy of this direction was to largely build the offense through the next couple of drafts and to boost the defense through free agency initially while the offense got it's feet wet and developed. Yes, the trades are somewhat maddenesque, but there are no block buster deals either in there. I agree a 3rd for Kerley is probably too optimistic, but like you said the deal with Coples was probably under valued. The sixth round pick is really irrelevant and admittedly squeezed in on draft day after I had selected Corey Robinson. The real key here is if you look none of the free agents signed are over 27 years of age, they're all young players who have shown value on the field and still have significant upside (at least I don't think any of them were over 27). AKA no fossil holdovers, young and hungry.
Interesting to say the least. LOL Sorry, but I think your FA is basically an epic fail. You don't sign a number of the team's backups (Bellore, who was one of their best STs players, Douzable who is a very good depth/role player and cheap, or their long snapper Purdum). You don't sign a QB, OG, CB or WR, which are four of our six most glaring needs. At least you signed a FS, but two OLBs? And why let Snacks go and replace him with someone who probably isn't as good. (I could be wrong here, because I don't know Peters, but he'd have to be a much better pass rusher to be better than Snacks, because Snacks is probably one of the best run-stuffing NTs in the NFL.) I think Snacks is also a popular player and what's the point of replacing him, creating a hole, and then signing someone else? You've paid Ellis starter money. Coples or Mo could play the nose on occasion, and the last regime was pretty high on TJ Barnes, who I think was a UDFA. I love that you addressed the OLB position, but not how you did it. I don't think that I'd cut both Pace and Babin. Since Babin is basically a situational pass rusher and not a starter, he would be the one to go. Pace would be a good backup and role player. $95 million for OLBs in FA is just nuts and not very realistic imo, and I've been one of the biggest advocates of overhauling the OLB positions. You can't do that. McPhee is a nice player, but no way in hell a situational pass rusher who has never even gotten 10 sacks in a season should get $10 million per year, particularly after you sign Worilds. Further this is a deep draft with many good to excellent OLB prospects. I think the Jets would be stupid to use most of their FA money on FA OLBs and not draft an OLB. Who the heck is Joe Barksdale? Never heard of him. Why sign a RT and not an OG? I don't know who Mason Foster is, but assume he must be an ILB to replace Harris. I have no problem trading Coples, but think you could get more than a 4th round pick for Coples. Similarly, I have no problem trading Kerley if you've signed a slot WR, but doubt you could get a 3rd for him. Why would the Vikings want him? I don't think the Jets could trade Giacomini because of the dead money/cap hit they'd take, but even if they could, after the season he had, doubt they could get a 6th for Giacomini. Why would SF trade for Giacomini? I like many of the players you have the Jets taking in the draft. Winston has a ton of talent, there's no doubt, but his off field issues and character scare the bejeebers out of me. I can't see Mac taking both Winston and Green-Beckham. If one or both busted due to character issues, it would be a huge black eye for him in his first draft and would be very risky. Winston, I could see, because of the Jets' glaring need at QB, but not Green-Beckham after taking Winston. I like Dorsett and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. The problem with Ekpre-Olomu is that he may not even play in 2015, and that especially hurts with your not signing a FA CB and keeping Wilson. I don't think either Prewitt or Perryman drop as you say. Also, if you've taken Moore, why in the world would you take Prewitt? He's an excellent prospect, but he has first-round talent, and would be wasted on the bench. I don't know anything about your OT Robinson, but since he's a mid-to-low round pick, I doubt he's very good, and probably nothing more than a backup -type, and certainly wouldn't be Brick's replacement. Even with getting Winston and Ekpre-Olomu, I think your draft would come close to an epic fail for not securing Brick's replacement. They can't realistically pay Brick what he's due in 2016 and I'm not sure they can afford to have him protecting Winston's backside, either. It's only a 7th round pick, but why in the world are you wasting a 7th round pick on a SS? I'm not sure if you have Landry still on the Jets or not since you didn't mention him, but if he's still on the roster, the Jets have Landry, AA, Pryor, Jarrett, and Miles all at SS. Even if you count Landry or Jarrett as a FS (but why would you with Moore and Prewitt both at FS?), that's still too many SSs, so would be dumb to take another with the 7th rounder.
Going to start off with the Safety comment. I did this mock in 3 stages, the first stage was resigns (and I didn't cover all of the small resignings like LS and Special teams players but instead included those signings under a generic 12M budget. the second stage was free agent signings, these were completed before I ran the mock draft and at the point in time had no idea who was going to be drafted. I did it in this order to make the progress of the off season as much of a simulation as possible. when it came to draft day I generally took the BPA approach regardless of position played, with one exception I made sure to get the highest WR I had rated that was available in the 2nd round after I had drafted a QB with the first pick. Cornerback is a concern, and to be honest when I was doing my FA signings if I had known the draft would pop the way it did I would have signed a FA CB instead of one of the OLB's. I agree with your assessment that taking both Winston and DBG is a risk, but I think DBG is worth the risk vs value in the 4th round because if he busts at that point it's not a big deal. I took a long term view in the draft and FA signings as well. AKA I approached it as a GM and thinking long term rather than short term fix it now viewpoint. NT Peters is a high motor guy who IMHO isn't far behind Snacks in the run game but generates much better penetration and he's also more flexible so you're not showing your hand by putting in your run focused defense or your pass focused defense, he's a 3 down NT. Translation, you're not tipping your hand and in today's developing trend of fast snap offenses that inhibit a defenses ability to swap out players flexibility and a 3 down NT is a huge advantage. Why I ignored the Oline and only signed a right tackle. Honestly this goes back to how I ran the off season, I was confident that I was going to draft at least 1 guard in the 2nd or 3rd round but the way the draft fell I went with bigger impact players. This was a flaw, similar to the CB and Safety issues, but again I was running the off season mock in the same way the off season breaks down for real teams and most impact FA's are signed before the draft. I don't view Prewitt as a wasted pick. If he plays better than Pryor or Moore then he plays...always draft the BPA if you're building for the long term and not the short term.
I don't think real GMs do it in stages. I think they have a plan that takes FA and the draft into consideration at the same time. They then finalize their draft plans following FA. OG is one of the biggest needs and regardless of who is playing QB, it needs to be fixed NOW. The Jets have already drafted 4-5 OGs in the last couple of years. I don't think they will draft another. This is something that can and should be fixed in FA. Period. The same goes for the CB position. It's too important to leave to the draft, and besides, adding another rookie might not help things much at all. I think those are two HUGE flaws in your reasoning. You can't just take the long view and ignore the short view. Supposedly, that's what Idzik did and we see what happened with that approach. Peters may be better than Snacks overall, but in terms of chemistry, I think the overall effect would be negative on the D. In addition, you've paid Ellis starting money, so imo it makes no sense to bring in Peters. If you're gonna bring in Peters, you can't pay Ellis more than $2-3 million per year.
Chemistry is over rated, chemistry comes from winning. Long term vs short term and Idzik. Idzik may have had a 'long term' vision but you couldn't prove it by the moves he made or his draft philosophy. regarding Ellis, he's probably going to land 3-4 million this off season from what I'm reading around the web, he was under utilized in Rex's defense which focused on stopping the run. OG is a fix need but I don't see any sure fixes on the OG front in FA that are a sure fire investment. CB, admittedly a potential weakness but if you can apply pressure quickly you can get by with lesser CB's playing bump coverage. RE draft philosophy, look at the good teams and how they draft...BPA always.
RE the guard comment in my previous post. it's referring to younger guards. Iupati fits but while he's very good at run blocking his pass blocking seems to be suspect.
I totally disagree regarding chemistry. Good chemistry can help create winning. If you don't see any sure fire fixes on the OG front, then I don't know what to say other than to suggest that you look again with your own eyes, and not what you read. No they don't always go BPA. Slavish adherence to any philosophy is stupid. For the Jets to draft another DL this year simply because he is the BPA would be totally stupid, assinine and a waste of their 1st round pick. It would be a firable offense as far as I'm concerned. You have to balance BPA with need. Anything else is just effing stupid. I agree with the point about CBs, but still there is no excuse for not signing a FA CB. The Jets have space, and you wasted a LOT of space with your signings. you would make a terrible GM.
