QB's - Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles WR's - Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Marqise Lee TE's - Eric Ebron OT's - Jake Matthews, Greg Robinson, Taylor Lewan, Zack Martin DL - Jadaveon Clowney, Aaron Donald, Timmy Jernigan LB's - Khalil Mack, Anthony Barr, C.J Mosley CB's - Justin Gilbert, Darqueze Dennard S - Ha-ha Clinton-Dix Reasoning: QB's - All mocked repeatedly to various teams in the top 10. WR's - All mocked repeatedly to various teams in the top 17. TE's - Mocked repeatedly to a couple of teams between 9 and 12. OT's - All mocked repeatedly to various teams in the top 17. DL - All mocked repeatedly to various teams in the top 17. LB's - All mocked repeatedly to various teams in the top 17. CB's - Both mocked repeatedly to various teams from 12 to 17. S - In the top 17 in every mock I have seen. Ok, so this is 20 people considered not likely to be taken in the top 17 of the NFL draft. That's somebody nice falling to the Jets at 18 and it's not possible that they're all DL unless Clowney falls to us. Looks like profit to me. The reason I don't have Brandin Cooks grouped alongside the other receivers is that he is not getting much attention in the top 17 in mocks at this point. If he starts getting put up over Marqise Lee that will change. As it stands Lee to either Pittsburgh or Baltimore is a dominant theme in many mocks. The reason I don't have Odell Beckham or Kelvin Benjamin in the group is they're just not getting mocked in that range. The reason I don't have Calvin Pryor in the group is that he has not been getting mocked in the top 17 much. The reason I don't have Derek Carr in the group is that he is only getting mocked to the Raiders and his placement there is inconsistent to put it mildly. If I had to pull people from the group one by one depending on most likely to be there at 18 based on the mock group-think the first guy to go would be Timmy Jernigan, then Zack Martin, then Aaron Donald, then Darqueze Dennard, then Marqise Lee. That's just based on the consistency with which players are showing up in published mocks. If I had to add people who might suddenly go into the "won't be there at 18" list I wouldn't be able to do that because there's nobody not in that top 20 who is so hot at this point that's he's going to go early on draft day. Somebody may pop up into the list, and probably somebody not listed will go earlier than 18 but it's impossible to figure out who based on the buzz right now.
I think Lee is there at 18. I'm seeing a lot of mocks that have him coming off the board in the late 20's. I think we may be choosing between Cooks, Lee, and Beckham.
I generally agree with you but as consistently as players are mocked, that is more related to group think. We know the draft always comes out looking quite different from 10-30 than 90% of the mocks, although they generally know which players would go in the first round. It think players that you can truly say are definitely not going to be there at 18 are more like: Jadeveon Clowney Blake Bortles Teddy Bridgewater Johnny Manziel Khalil Mack Sammy Watkins Ha Ha Clinton-Dix Greg Robinson Jake Matthews Mike Evans I think there are others who I'd guess will go before 18 but these are the only who to me are sure to be gone.
