In today's (Saturdays) Buffalo News: Jets quarterback Chad Pennington doesn't have a strong arm, but he's a lethal passer in the red zone. He has completed 93 of 148 career passes for 575 yards, 43 touchdowns and no interceptions for a 109.8 QB rating inside the opponents' 20-yard line.
Yep. He had an INT in the red zone vs. Tennessee which was called back due to a penalty. I also remember a close call during the KC game last season, but we didn't get down to the red zone enough in that game, so maybe I'm confusing it with something else. I guess he's efficient down there.
They bring up this statistic everytime that we get into the redzone. Its actually pretty remarkable figuring that he has limited space to throw the ball into.
What it doesn't say is how many TD's vs no scores and Field goals we got when we were in the red zone and where we rank in getting into the end zone. Passer effiency is a very over rated stat. 2 for 3 for 9 yards is much more effiencient than 1 for 3 for 11 yards but it's the difference between a first down or a FG attempt vs. a first down or continuing with a shot at a TD.
What you said doen't take away anything. Those are very impressive stats no matter how you look at them. 43 TDs out of 148 passes, that's one TD for every third pass with no interceptions. Let's see the red zone stats for the other QBs. It is harder to run or complete passes in the red zone because the defense has a shorter field to cover. I like to see Peyton Manning stats but I guess they are not as good as Pennington's or else we would have heard that Manning has the best stats in the red zone. And Manning always had much better receivers than Pennington.
Look at the stats, 3.88 YPA in the red zone. I'm guessing there weren't many passes rifled into tight coverage for a score. Pennington in 02 when he lead the league in passer rating ranked 8th in total TD's. He simply doesn't throw that many TD's.
I saw a graphic on TV either during the Titans or Pats game showing Pennington's efficiency throwing long. Very gawdy stats similar to his red zone stats. He may not throw it long too often, but when he does he's very effective.
It's incredibly unfair to look at YPA in terms of red zone stats. A QB only has 20 yards to work with and many of those passes are coming inside the 10 or 5 yard line. In addition, with less room to work with, it makes the 43-0 TD to INT ratio more impressive.
He also had the fewest pass attempts and fewest starts of any QB ahead of him that year in TD passes. Every QB ahead of him started 16 games that year where as he only started 12.
It's no less unfair than to look at INT's in the red zone soley as the basis for comparrison. In 03- Brady averaged 5.3, Culpepper 5.1, McNair 5.1, Manning 5.8, Garcia 5.6Bulger 6.2, Brees 4.8 and it goes on and on. Pennington at 3.4 is among the lowest of any starter that year. As the field shrinks the ability to zip a ball into tight spots becomes a bigger factor. If you have that ability you are going to throw more INT's but you are also going to throw more TD's. In the NFL when you come up against equally talented teams the ability to take shots for TD's on a short field becomes a key to winning. If you can't do it it's much tougher to win those games. Pennington's record against the NFL elite is pretty lousy all though very good over all. I don't read much into any of those stats including passer effiency in the red zone. To me what it comes down to is are you scoring TD's on O, are you running more plays than the opposition and are you dominating TOP and field position.
It was a pass interference call. We are going to see alot more INTs this season, IMHO because Magini isn't going to want to settle for FGs.
02 we ranked 10th in passing TD's and 23rd in total TD's. 03 15th in pasing TD's and 21 in total TD's. In 04 we were 22nd in passing TD's and 12th overall. You would think with a top 10 QB and Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan we would be in the top 10 once in total TD's we weren't. The only year we got close was in 04 when we were primarily a running team. Contrast that to 98 when Vinny was the QB we ranked 4th in total TD's. The O'Brein and Todd lead Jets had better rankings in total TD's than the Pennington lead Jets to date. That said it may well be do to the O we ran and Herm. I fully expect that Penningtons QB rating may well drop and the amount of TD's this team scores could go up. Without a solid running game Pennington is going to have to run a Montana like O for this team to win. With the schedule we have Pennington should have an opportunity for a 30 + TD year if he stays healthy. Even in the next 4 games we should be able to put up some big points against the Bill, IND and Miami.
They are payed to over analyze things. If there is a stat, they will throughly process that. A lot of teams gameplan for teams off of such stats. Mathmatics are sweet.
I see a lot of spinning of data here. Basically, he does a good (not great) job in the red zone. He doesn't turn the ball over inside the 20 and will get points but too often does not score TDs, which is the point. Overall, he's a very good (not great) red zone performer. Thoughts?
I agree with that, but I am happy with the consistency in CP in the RZ. I would rather have a full 3-4 attempts in the RZ even if it ends in just 3 points, then it being 0 with an INT. I would want somebody like CP in the Redzone in the 4th Quarter last minute drive, no question.
I hate when this stat comes up during games! It always seems to me that when the announcer mentions a stat ( like, Curtis NEVER fumbles ) it is bound to happen.
