I Gave my best effort fellas ... but I warn my Jets brethren in advance, it's long Round 1 - Brick Ferguson Rounds 1 & 2 - Nick Mangold & Kellen Clemens Round 3 - Anthony Schlegel Round 3 - Eric Smith Round 4 - Brad Smith & Leon Washington Rounds 5-7 - Pociask, Coleman & Adams
D'Brick looks really lean for an LT on your avatar eh Jabba... Anyways, great lengthy analysis! *2 thumbs up.
Thank You Vilmatic, that is way to generous and kind For the record, your opinion means a whole lot too me as well ... ditto all of the dihards like yourself who converse like gentlemen ... means every bit as much to me as my own, and I love hearing what you guys are thinking
The one point I would take exception is where you said the Jets took advantage of the Redskins in the trade down. The value was equal assuming the Redskins draft around number 20 next year. In any trade a pick the following year is valued one round lower. But otehrwise I thought it was an excellent review, very informative and obviously took youa great deal of time. Thank you very much for the hard work. Number 35 = 550 Number 53 = 370 Number 189 = 16 2nd round pick for value is equal to one round later = 85th pick =165 You could argue both wins this trade. Because there was so much talent that had dropped and there was an excess of 2nd round talent one could argue the Redskins should have offered more than the draft pick chart. On the other hand you could argue we were lucky to get equal draft chart value as it was our desire to move down. But in reality both teams benefited. It was equal trade according to the draft chart value. We got what we wanted and moved down and the Redskins were able to move up.
I've seen you mention this several times. Is there someplace where this value chart is actually explained? You're the first person I've seen make that statement. Not that I'm saying it's wrong, but I'm just curious if there's a handbook with that chart And Jabba, all this time and I had no idea you were Green Jets & Ham on Jets Nation. I haven't been there long (just joined when TGG went down a couple of months ago) but it was funny how I thought your writing styles were the same and then I just find out that it's the same guy. I just found it humorous :grin:
http://www.thehuddlereport.com/NickelPackage/tradevaluechart.htm The pick the Jets traded to Washington {#35 Overall} is worth 550 VP's {Value Points} The 2nd RD Pick they received from Washington in this draft {#53 Overall} is worth 370 VP's ... the 6th RD Pick {#189 Overall} was worth 16 VP's ... that's a total of 386 VP's As for that 2nd RD Pick from Washington in 2007, at worst {if the Redskins win the Superbowl} it would be the #64 Overall Pick which is worth 270 VP's ... that would be a Grand Total {386 + 270} of 656 VP's, and that's the worst case scenario, Skins win the SB, we will have traded 550 VP's for 656 VP's Even that, worst case scenario, is a value chart steal ... but who here sees the Skins winning the SB? So let's say the Skins own the #58 Overall Pick in RD 2, which is a conservative assessment in my view, might be better than that but lets be conservative ... that pick would be worth 320 VP's ... 320 + 386 = 706 VP's I'm no mathematician, but trading 550 VP's for 706 VP's sure seems like a value chart heist too me And if the Skins have a so-so year and draft in the middle of RD 2, you can add another 100 VP's to that number {800+}
Thanks for that info...but what's with Buttle's statement about "2nd round pick for value is equal to one round later". That's the part I'm not following.
I'm not sure, but I think he's suggesting the value chart is deceiving because the talent near the top of RD 2 is far superior ... that's my best guess, but I don't wanna put words in Buttle's mouth ... but the chart offers the value for these picks and if you use the chart this trade was a value chart heist ... there's no other way to read it if you use chart value
Sorry if I wasn't clear. I just re-read my previous statement and I can see why it was confusing. What I am explaining is when you trade for a pick in a future draft its valued as though it is one round later for draft pick value. Just like money a draft pick is considerded more valuable now than in the future. In other words a second round pick this year is equal to a first round pick next year. A 3rd round pick this year has the same value as a second round pick next year. The Redskins pick would be valued as a third rounder for draft pick value because it cannot be used this year. For example later year the Redskins traded up to take campbell. They gave up a first round pick and in the 2006 draft plus more. The 2006 1st round pick for that trade in 2005 would not be valued as a first round pick but rather as equal to a second round pick in the 2005 draft. Thats why the 2007 2nd round pick Of Washington is only valued as if it was roughly equal to the 85th pick in the 2006 draft. Generally when teams trade future picks they also estimate what part of the round the other team will be picking. Given Washington's record in 2005 and their acquisitions its likely they will be picking around 20th as if they will be a borderline play off team. Which makes the trade almost exactly even in draft pick value. Doing the math you then have: Number 35 = 550 Number 53 = 370 Number 189 = 16 2nd round pick in 2007 is valued one round later equal to the 85th pick =165 Total =551 Almost exactly equal. If you consider how much talent there was in the secon roudn this year maybe the Jets should have got greater than draft chart value. Certainly the argument could be made the Jets got ripped off here for only getting equal value. On the otehr hand it can be argued that the Jets wanted to trade down and it was a gigt getting equal value. But realistically it was a fair deal and good for both teams.
I know you do your homework Buttle, but I don't know where you ever got that idea ... the value of oh say the 50th Overall Pick in this draft was 400 VP's, and chart value will be exactly the same for the 50th Overall Pick next year, the chart doesn't change and the value of these picks do not depreciate even 1 VP, that same pick one year from now will be worth the exact same 400 VP's ... it's simply a matter of waiting one year for the return on our investment IMO the only way someone cannot view this as a value chart heist is if they don't feel like waiting a full year to cash in, but at this time next year the Jets will own three picks in the TOP 64 and everyone will be thrilled ... that's when folks will realize this was a great move, when it comes time to cash in ... and we never left RD 2 this year either, just traded down in RD 2 and added a 6 Like I said in the column, the trade speaks for itself ... Jets traded one 2nd RD Pick for two 2nd RD Picks and a 6th ... that's a value chart massacre for the Jets We won't cash in on that second 2 until next years draft, but that's when this heist will be felt
Jabba. I can't give you a link or source. But I have heard it many times. But you don;t have to take my word for it or someone elses word for it. The easiest way would be to just look at historical data and see the difference in value between between draft picks in subsequent years. There is no reason to believe someone when they say next years draft pick is valued one round lower when we can find the answer for ourselves. Its easy enough to see what teams really do and what value they place on draft picks in subsequent years just by looking at those trades and comparing them to the draft pick value charts. I will have some time tommorow afternoon and will attempt to look through some prior draft trades and compare the values. The only real difficulty will be estimating where a team should slot in the following year. While their prior year record should be a good indication there are many other factors tha go into expectations such as injuries, retirements and signings that may beyond my memory that might have influenced that slotting. You are welcome to do the same if you like and given your hard work and knowledge I am quite sure you could and would do it a lot better than me. I have a somewhat sadistic feeling you might enjoy such an exercise. But regardless of my difference of opinion with you in regards to the Washington trade I do respect and enjoy your posts and I think you did a fantastic job on your draft review.
