Rambo's Weekly Gambling Thread I'm going to try to do this every week to see what people think about the gambling lines. Just your basic spread and over/under. Pick which scenario you think we will fall under. We'll see who knows the most about the Jets where it really counts! **Note: I messed up the last option it should be Titans -2.5** Rules: If a team has -2.5 next to their name they are favored to win by 2.5 points, otherwise they are underdogs by 2.5 points.
Picking against the line does not show who knows the most about the Jets. The line is made so the betting is a dead 50/50. That's the goal of every bookkeeper. They want the bests 50/50 so they collect the vig and everyone is happy. The line does not always reflect a prediction of the game. They aren't trying to get the score to be a dead tie. They want the $ bet to be a dead tie. That's a huge distinction.
I understand the purpose of setting a line, thanks for the explanation, I just thought is might be a little more fun to do a poll based on that then have one asking if the Jets will win. Wow I wonder what the outcome to that poll will be every week. At least this way if we are favored by some stroke of luck people may vote against us or something.
Yeah you've made your opinion quite clear. Thank you for sharing and if there is nothign else, good day.
Your description is correct, but in that sense the line is a prediction of who is going to win, if you consider the entire betting public as the ones making the prediction. This is the same thing as saying that the horse that is the odds-on favorite in a race is predicted by the betting public to be the winner of the race. It is certainly incorrect to talk about "beating the bookies" (since all they want to do is balance their bets, they are not making a prediction at all), but someone who wins consistently against the line is quite justified in saying that they are "smarter" than the general betting public, in the sense of the way that the public puts their money where their mouths are. This is the idea behind "subjective probability," as described by Leonard "Jimmie" Savage in his 1954 book Foundations of Statistics. Savage claimed that all probabilities should be thought of as bets (and conversely, all bets translate into probabilities). This is one of the underlying facets of what is called Bayesian statistics.
Listen, you don't have to like me and you don't have to like my posts, but if you don't have anything positive to add and are simply here to sabotage the topic and attempt to get me to lash out at you, please just stay away and let people who are obviously intrigued by this topic enjoy it without you getting in the way. Thanks.
Yeah, that's a good idea. I was thinking about keeping a record of how the "site" does at choosing the correct outcome by taking the majority vote as the "site" vote. Thoughts?
You had no problem doing it in another thread though.... No problem badmouthing someone with no fact behind it whatsoever... Doesn't feel good to have it done to you, does it? Stop crying.. if you can dish it, be prepared to take it.
I can't see how a team with Kerry Collins as their starting QB is favored over anyone, even the Jets.. I like the Jets and the under in this one. On a side note, I also took the Jets to win the SB, AFC Championship, AFC east and the over in season wins.. Anyone else??
