I've followed them since 1975. I was there when Lam Jones was picked and Freeman McNeil was selected, so I've spanned the globe of Good and Bad. Here are my thoughts: (1) Reggie Bush - I'm actually glad the Jets don't have the #1 overall pick and if by some chance he falls to the Jets at wherever they slot, I do not think they should pick him. As for being picked #1, I don't think any running back is worth the cost to sign such a player (esp. over a 4-year pro-rated bonus if no NFL deal) and also running backs are NOT difference makers. There's lots of good running backs always getting released and ever few years a great one is available (e.g., Curtis in 1998). Their shelf life is short, going back to Earl Campbell. If Houston takes Bush, it might make sense since he can probably get them to 8-8 and that's a success for that team. But any other team can spend the pick and the $$$ better elsewhere. (2) Matt Leinert - I'm not as high on him as others. Color me wrong, but I think he's a slightly bigger, more mobile Rick Mirer. I think he'd be a good pick in the 8-15 range of the 1st Round. I hate the idea of picking him 1-4 with the Heath Shulers, Tim Couch's, Akili Smiths, etc, all train-wrecked in recent years. (3) Vince Young - Forget the Wonderlic test, Texas players scare me ever since I was there when Rozelle said "NY Jets" and "Lam Jones." I don't like the Michael Vick-style of QB'ing, this isn't college and the SouthWest conference. You need to move the ball 80 yards through the air in the last 2 minutes in the NFL. Again, I think Young is 1st round material, but lower. I hate to use a 1-4 pick on this guy. And with his talents, I see him being more able to take a lousy team to mediocrity or a good level rather than take that same team -- or a mediocre one -- to the top-echelon or great status. Just like Vick. (4) D'Brickshaw Ferguson - I liked him months ago, now I'm not sure. He's not Anthony Munoz, someone who will dominate from Day 1. And I'm not sure he's Orlando Pace, who now dominates or is at least 95%-solid after a rough start his first 2 years. He's not huge, which means he will have to rely not on size or quickness but skill and technique. That means learning and experience and could mean he won't make an impact until 2008. I am also a bit wary about the weight gain the last few years and wonder how he put it on -- he went from 259 to 312 in under 4 years. (5) Jay Cutler. - Not imposing physically, but might be ready to play in the NFL after 1/2 year of seasoning. Could be a good quality backup to Chad. I think the Jets could do worse than stay at #4 and grab him there. If the Jets are convinced he's going higher, do they trade up to prevent that? Yes, but only if they are sure and the guy blew them away at the combine. I checked with friends who work in the NFL and they say Cutler is moving up fast (bad for the Jets). But if the 1-3 picks are a given, the Jets could luck out UNLESS someone trades up by giving a great package to someone ahead of the Jets slot. To Sum Up: I actually think the Jets are in a good position. If they had a higher draft choice, they'd be in a LESS desirable position insofar as there isn't any clear impact player and they could screw up a more valuable pick. I'd stay at #4 -- I would NOT move up unless they definitely want Cutler and are convinced someone is going to leap-frog them -- and at #4 they should be able to sign the guy and he's a quality backup if Chad is permanently disabled (I'm assuming Chad stays with the team). Needless to say, if the Jets have to pick Cutler higher than #4 or pick someone else higher, it'll screw up the salary cap ($95 MM with no deal; $105 MM with the NFL's proposed offer) even worse as the bonus increases a ton once you move up from #4 to the top 3 picks. Remember: if no NFL deal, bonuses pro-rated over 4 years, not 6. Makes signing rookies and vets that much tougher.
No comments? Do you guys agree that Bush (too expensive to pick #1) and Leinart/Young are all potential misses/mispricings at their respective slots? I think the Jets could be in the catsbird seat with either Ferguson or Cutler, not that their isn't risk with both of them (Ferguson will be OK but might not be a great tackle; Cutler could piss off Chad).
We have so many holes, I would rather go with Penny and a solid backup, draft a second round QB and fill as many holes as possible.
I have similar fears that you do, I would like to trade down a bit and get a pick late in the first some wway or another, some of my targeted players are Williams and Maroney at RB, Gilles, Mangold on the interior, McNeill, O'Callaghan, Justice on the outside, Hawk on the defensive side of the ball later round picks I like are Croyle and Whitehurst at QB, I absolutely want Maurice Drew in the 3rd round. I am not quite as high on Cutler as most, I think we could do better but definatly worse. Young and Cutler both have risk attached and Lienart could be solid but just above good, not great
I don't know Cutler scares me a bit..I remember when Boller in front of NFL scouts got on his knees at the 50 yard line and tossed a football though the uprights..Thats arm strength. Does it equate to a NFL Quarterback ..Nope..I think we need to pass on QB this year. Trade our pick. In my opinon ..This draft falls off hard after the top 10 and after that the second round looks great as well as the third. There is tons of depth. I would to get as many 2nd and 3rds as possible. Or draft Furgeson..or goat rope Oakland into taking our pick (Cutler)and either getting Hawk or Mario if we are lucky
Who do you like? Youve just critisized the top 4 players in the draft. If they have as many problems as you say they have then why are they going to the NFL in the 1st place?
Of those 4 players, I like Ferguson the best. I disagree with you in that I believe he is big enough, and his talent is simply awesome. He'll be a rock for years. I totally agree about Bush. If I had to choose between him and LenDale White, I'd take White. I believe he'll be the better pro. As for Cutler and Young, I'm kind of split on them. I like both players, but I am weary of guys who shoot up the board as fast as Cutler. In fact, if I had to choose between them, I think I'd probably take Young. I know he has an unorthodox throw, and he's known as a running QB (which I am not a fan of), but I think that with the proper QB coaching, he'll become an excellent pocket passer. His leadership skills are off the chart, and he is Montana-esque under pressure. Maybe even cooler! I really think he's worth taking a chance on if he is there at #4.
Hey, I'm a fan who thinks about these things for fun, not like my friends who do this for a living !! lol What would I do? What I hope my contacts at The Jets will do: stay put at #4 and take either Ferguson or Cutler. I can live with either one. I wouldn't move up to take Cutler unless he blows away the Jets at the combine and they know he'll be gone when they pick 4th.
All depends on what picks we get for John Abraham, if we have to trade down for more picks or stay at #4 then take Ferguson.
