This is my first attempt at a mock offseason and I thought I’d go a slightly different route with it. I always enjoy reading others’ takes on the offseason and thought I’d provide my own. These things are addictive! I took the cap into account and explain each step along the way and also provide the draft choices leading up to the Jets’ first. CURRENT CAP SPACE: -23M JETS FREE AGENTS - RB Shonn Greene - WALK (~5th round 2014 compensation) He’s been a solid player, but will likely seek at least 3-4M per year, which the Jets cannot afford and he is likely not worth - FB Lex Hilliard – WALK If the team still needs an option, he can be resigned, but an upgrade could be found. They can also utilize 2-TE sets instead. PFF graded Hilliard out quite poorly in 2012 - WR Braylon Edwards – RESIGN 1yr/850K He won’t draw much interest on the market and seems to have his greatest production in NY. I’d welcome him back as a reserve for this price. - WR Chaz Schilens – WALK He wasn’t a big factor and would be an adequate reserve, but they choose Braylon over Schilens. - TE Dustin Keller – WALK (~4th round 2014 compensation) He’s been good for the Jets; not great. Another case of the player not being worth what he’ll be seeking and the Jets not having the money. Jets got decent production from Cumberland and will seek another option in the draft. - TE Jeff Cumberland (RFA) – RESIGN/TENDER 2yr/1.9M (900K in 2013) He played pretty well in 2012 and is worth this price. We resign him instead of tendering him to save some money - OT Austin Howard (RFA) – RESIGN/TENDER 1yr/1.26M Howard had some bad moments, but more often than not, he held his own. Especially in a year where the Jets have a lot of holes and little money, Howard is a guy who should be counted on to start next year. PFF graded him out very well (Better than Jermon Bushrod and Jake Long) - OG Brandon Moore – WALK (~6th round 2014 compensation) Tough call – this depends on his asking price. I’d sign him for a one or two year deal at about 2M per season, but he might get a far better offer especially given his strong season and stronger finish. He’s getting old though, so it may be better to invest in the younger guy. - OG Matt Slauson – RESIGN 4yr/10M (2M in 2013) Slauson unreasonably platooned with Valdimir Ducasse in 2012. He is a better pass-blocker than run-blocker, but graded out as a good lineman all in all. Still young, it’d be good to retain him and keep the continuity on the left side. - DL Mike DeVito – WALK I would want strongly to resign him, but with Coples playing well and Jets short on cash, DeVito will be tough to resign. I’d give him between $1.5-2M per season, but he’ll likely seek more and find a full-time job somewhere else. - LB Bryan Thomas – WALK I thought about resigning him for the minimum, but he’s old, coming off an injury and has some legal troubles. They’ll find they’re veteran in free agency. - LB Josh Mauga (RFA) – RESIGN 1yr/500K Was a decent spot player in the past, but was on IR in 2012. He signs for a minimal contract as depth - CB Isaiah Trufant – RESIGN 1yr/500K Also a good reserve and special teamer, he provides good depth and won’t cost much. - CB Darrin Walls – RESIGN 1yr/500K Played a bit down the stretch and didn’t look awful. Worth giving another shot to make the team, but you never know with the way Rex shuffles his reserve DBs - S LaRon Landry – WALK (~3rd round 2014 compensation) He exceeded expectations last year by playing well and staying healthy. I’d say his Pro Bowl berth assured his departure as he’ll seek 6M+. He really isn’t worth that though. Although an enforcer, Landry graded out surprisingly low by PFF’s rankings. There’s not enough to resign him anyway - S Yeremiah Bell – RESIGN 1yr/900K He played surprisingly well last season. At 35, he won’t command much interest and can be resigned for a great price. - LS Tanner Purdum – RESIGN 3yr/1.6M (500K in 2013) No mistakes or issues; no need for change. - K Nick Folk – RESIGN 1yr/700K He seems to have a bad wrap, but he’s been solid. The job is his until he starts missing kicks CAP SPACE AFTER RESIGNINGS: -27M RELEASES - QB Tim Tebow – saves 1.1M It just didn’t work out here. I feel he deserved a shot, but the team left no room for him. I hope a more competent team gives him a chance to play. - OT Jason Smith – saves 12M No brainer - NT Sione Pouha – saves 3.8M This is a tough call too. But he’s old and was oft-injured last season and is due big money in 2013. The Jets count on Kenrick Ellis, a veteran to-be-signed and Damon Harrison - LB Bart Scott – saves 7.2M His level of play has declined significantly and he’s owed a lot of money. I’d resign him for 1M or less, but that’s unrealistic. - LB Calvin Pace – saves 8.6M Little production and big money... Another guy I’d sign for 1M or less, but again, that doesn’t seem likely. - S Eric Smith – saves 3M It’s amazing that Eric Smith has played on this team for seven season. He’s been good as a role player, but isn’t nearly worth 3M. Antonio Allen will play his role at a 1/6 of the price. CAP SPACE AFTER RELEASES: 7.7M RESTRUCTURES - LB David Harris, QB Mark Sanchez, WR Santonio Holmes, OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson These guys are all due big money in 2013. Releasing any of these guys is either not cap feasible, a bad decision or both. It’s hard for me to say exactly how much will be saved, but Idzik is also a “cap genius”, so perhaps saving a 3-4M per player on 2013 is realistic and perhaps there are other guys he can do similarly with. CAP SPACE AFTER RESTRUCTURES: ~20M FREE AGENTS - QB Matt Moore, Miami – 1yr/2.5M It’s either him or Jason Campbell now. Moore is one of the top backups in the league and will have a tremendous opportunity to start here in 2013. - OT Barry Richardson, St. Louis – 1yr/900K It’s a veteran depth signing. The Jets have little at OT behind Howard and Ferguson and Richardson wouldn’t be expensive. He’s also a fallback in case Howard regresses - NT Aubrayo Franklin, San Diego – 1yr/900K A cheaper option than Pouha, Franklin will rotate at NT with Ellis and Harrison - DL Kenyon Coleman, Dallas – 1yr/900K Coleman makes his return at a better price than 5yr/20M. He’ll rotate with Wilkerson and Coples. Has a ton of experience in the 3-4. - OLB/DE Quentin Groves, Arizona – 2yr/4M (2M in 2013) Somewhat productive in Arizona, he’s another signing that is for depth and to piece the roster together. The Jets have virtually no OLBs. McIntyre may very well start on one side and Groves can play the other, but another guy will be added within the first three rounds. CAP SPACE AFTER FREE AGENT SIGNIGNS: ~11.5M POSITIONAL CHANGE - CB Kyle Wilson moves to FS Why: Wilson fared pretty well as an outside CB in 2012. After playing in the nickel previously, he will change spots again. I think this role will be suited to his skills. It also allows the Jets an in-house solution at FS, which saves money and ties up less money in CBs. This also ensures a greater compensatory pick for Landry as the Jets spend no money on new players to replace him (but that’s just a bonus). Darrelle Revis stays!
DRAFT This is how the draft plays out up to the Jets’ selection 1. Kansas City: Star Lotuleti, NT, Utah The Chiefs trade a mid rounder for Alex Smith and use a 3rd or 4th rounder on an additional QB. The FO is not in love with Geno Smith and instead opts to use this selection to improve the defensive line as Glenn Dorsey walks. Dwayne Bowe and Branden Albert are also resigned. 2. Jacksonville: Damonte Moore, DE, Texas A&M The Jaguars could use more production from their ends. Moore might be the best in the draft. 3. Oakland: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St Oakland needs another guy who can get to the QB and Werner is just that. TRADE: San Diego trades 1(11), 2 & 5 to Philadelphia for 1(4) 4. San Diego (via/Phi): Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M San Diego sees their opportunity. Philly might very well select him and Arizona might gobble up Fisher at 7. San Diego is in need of a franchise LT and Joeckel’s slip is their opportunity to move up. Philly is more than happy to pick up an extra early 2nd round pick. 5. Detroit: Ezekial Ansah, DE, BYU We all know he’s raw and has “unlimited potential”, as they say. But really, he’s a riser and Detroit needs pass-rushers with Kyle Vanden Bosch near the end and Cliff Avril a free agent. 6. Cleveland: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia The Browns take a shot on Jones here. The big concern is the spinal stenosis, but the Browns feel it’s worth the risk. Geno Smith is still on the board, but the Browns don’t want to invest back-to-back 1sts on QBs. As a dark horse, look out for a WR or CB. 7. Arizona: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan It doesn’t sound like Arians has given up on Kolb. If not, then the rest of the offense needs to be upgraded first. Fisher is that guy. He’s a guy the Cards expect to be the franchise LT that Levi Brown isn’t 8. Buffalo: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia Smith’s “fall” stops here. Buffalo could have went for a WR or LB here, but they can’t pass up Geno. TRADE: Tampa Bay trades 1(13), 3 & 6 to New York for 1(9) 9. Tampa Bay (via/NYJ): DeMarcus Milner, CB, Alabama The Bucs’ need help at CB badly. Milner could be taken by Tennessee at 10, Philly at 11 or Miami at 12. He can also go as high as #4. Tampa likes him and decides to give up a couple picks to get him. An already talented team, they can afford this move. In a division with Steve Smith, Roddy White, Julio Jones and Marques Colston, it’s a good idea. 10. Tennessee: Chance Warmack, OL, Alabama The Titans need interior OL help. Warmack is considered by some to be the top rated guy in this draft and the Titans envision him opening holes for Chris Johnson. Look out for Kenny Vaccarro here too. 11. Philadelphia (f/SD): Kenny Vaccarro, S, Texas The Eagles need some help in the defensive backfield and this is probably the best DB available right now. 12. Miami: Barkevious Mingo, OLB/DE, LSU The Dolphins could use a pass-rusher and Mingo is just that. The Dolphins have addressed their WR concerns in free agency by signing Greg Jennings (or Mike Wallace) and resigning Brian Hartline. 13. New York Jets (f/TB): Kennan Allen, WR, California This is somewhat of a surprise. The Jets suffered injuries at the receiver position and went forward with what was likely the least talented bunch in football. Backs included, the Jets had some of least talented skill players all in all. Sanchez deserves significant blame, but so do the skill positions. PFF graded the Jets offensive line as 3rd in the NFL, so let’s not blame them for the offense’s issues. The Jets drafted Stephen Hill last season, who set off fireworks in week one, but went missing afterwards. Let’s not give up on him: we all knew he needed a lot of work so his struggles shouldn’t surprise any. It’s reported that he’s a hard worker, so let’s hope that’s true and he continues to strive to reach his immense potential. Jeremy Kerley became a very solid player and is a keeper. Santonio Holmes is overpaid and, in many ways, unreliable. They need to get rid of him ASAP – and ASAP looks like after the 2013 season. The 6-2, 215 Keenan Allen is a more “NFL-ready” prospect and looks like a day-one starter, but with Holmes, Hill, Kerley and Edwards, there’s no rush for him as there was with Hill. Allen completes the Jets young, up and coming receivers of the future. The Jets need playmakers and this position has become strength now. In addition, Rob Rang of CBS Sports notes that Allen may be best suited for a west-coast scheme Other options: There are no QB’s worthy of this spot IMO. It’s too early for RBs Giovani Bernard or Eddie Lacy. It’s also too early for any TE’s. OG Chance Warmack is off the board and so are the top OTs – but we don’t have a big need there anyway… They could opt for a pass- rusher such as Dion Jordan, but I’m not the biggest fan right now. I suppose an ILB could be considered as well. Also, WR Cordarelle Patterson could be an option but I prefer Keenan Allen. 2: Stepfan Taylor, RB, Stanford Giovani Bernard and/or Eddie Lacy are off the board by now and Stepfan Taylor is a riser and a more complete back than either. He’s a guy with few flaws in his game and who the Jets are allegedly big fans of. He’s the answer at RB and is an upgrade over Shonn Greene. 3: Cornellius Carradine, OLB/DE, Florida State He had a big season after Brandon Jenkins went down, but suffered an ACL injury, which causes his fall. The Jets are lucky to get him in the third 3 (f/TB): Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati Another playmaker for the Jets, Kelce blocks and catches well and seems to be a more well- rounded type of player than Dustin Keller. This offense has become extremely talented. Whoever the QB is doesn’t have many excuses. 4: Trevardo Williams, OLB, UConn A productive 3-4 OLB for the Huskies, but he’s very undersized. The Jets hope they can develop and bulk him and ease him in. The Jets need depth and talent at this position and double- dip with Williams 5: Matt Scott, QB, Arizona An athletic, pretty accurate QB who has some intangibles. He’ll compete for a roster spot with Greg McElroy unless they keep four QBs. It’s worth taking a shot on a QB in the late rounds almost every year. 6: Garrett Gilkey, OG/OT, Chadron State Small school player who opened some eyes and held his own at the Senior Bowl. Will have a shot to play RG immediately, but could also be more of a developmental guy. 6 (f/TB): Hugh Thornton, OG/OT, Illinois Played OT in college, but might need to move to OG in the pros. He provides and depth immediately and Jets hope he can start at RG. He had a poor showing at the Senior Bowl and he falls largely due to that. 7: Braden Wilson, FB, Kansas St Somewhat one-dimensional, but is a punishing blocker CAP SPACE AFTER SIGNING DRAFT PICKS: ~5M ROSTER (* indicates a spot of competition where the depth chart is dependent on preseason and camp) QB*: Mark Sanchez / Matt Moore / Greg McElroy / Matt Scott RB*: Stepfan Taylor / Bilal Powell – Joe McKnight FB* Braden Wilson WR*: Keenan Allen / Stephen Hill / Braylon Edwards WR: Santonio Holmes – Jeremy Kerley – Clyde Gates TE*: Travis Kelce / Jeff Cumberland – Konrad Reuland LT: D’Brickashaw Ferguson - Barry Richardson LG: Matt Slauson – Caleb Schlauderaff – Hugh Thornton C: Nick Mangold – Caleb Schlauderaff RG*: Vladimir Ducasse / Garrett Gilkey / Hugh Thornton / Barry Richardson RT: Austin Howard – Barry Richardson – Garrett Gilkey DE: Muhammad Wilkerson NT*: Kenrick Ellis / Aubrayo Franklin / Damon Harrison DE: Quinton Coples – Kenyon Coleman OLB*: Garrett McIntyre – Cornellius Carradine ILB: David Harris – Nick Bellore ILB: Demario Davis – Josh Mauga OLB*: Quentin Groves / Trevardo Williams – Ricky Sapp CB: Darrelle Revis – Isaiah Trufant – Donnie Fletcher CB: Anotnio Cromarties – Ellis Lanskster – Darrin Walls FS: Kyle Wilson – Josh Bush SS*: Yeremiah Bell – Antonio Allen K: Nick Folk P: Robert Malone LS: Tanner Purdum POSSIBLE ADDITIONS: - A veteran RB a la Kevin Smith could be added if rookie Taylor seems to struggle - Perhaps the team wants to go without a lead-blocker, but if so, Wilson fits that role - A veteran RG could be added if Ducasse looks putrid. Perhaps Brandon Moore would return if he’s still available. - A veteran ILB could be added for depth or to start if Davis struggles - Hopefully, none of these scenarios need to occur, but the Jets have a little wiggle room to sign some extra help if needed. FUTURE NOTES - Santonio Holmes will likely be a goner in 2014. Sanchez will need to have the best season of his career (oh, and win the job first) to stay. David Harris may be a cap casualty in 2014 if he doesn’t step up big-time. So the Jets keep Darrelle Revis and maintain one of the NFL’s best (the best?) secondary. - A franchise QB could be in the cards for 2014, but the talent around him will be there. The Jets build around the QB in the 2013 offseason. - Let’s hope someone steps up at RG and Austin Howard continues to play well/improve in 2013. If not, this will be an area of need. - The same goes for the NT spot. Kenrick Ellis is another guy the team has to count on to be what they drafted him to be if they want to move forward. - And yet again, Demario Davis is a young guy to be counted on. He needs to grow into the starting role. He was eased in during the 2012 season and needs to make a leap. - I think Garrett McIntyre is a guy who could become a serviceable starter or at least an effective spot player. The Jets spend two picks in the top 4 rounds on pass-rushers. At least one of them needs to work out. - In this scenario, I don’t think the outlook for 2013/2014 is THAT bleak…
OK.. I like it but one thing how will we sign revis and cromartie when revis wants 100 mill 5 diamond cars and 7 solid gold toliets
wr with the first pick is absolutely horrible. there are way more important positions to fill than wr. i'd rather have mingo there and i am not a fan of mingo
We pick up a pass rusher with 1st pick and why would we trade the pick .. then address hb in second picking gio
I think with the players that were released and the players that will likely be released in 2014 including Mark Sanchez, Santonio Holmes and perhaps David Harris, there will be enough space for him... Plus, as we see in the recent nyjetscap article in the Jets forum, they might even have more cap space than I estimate, so you never know. I would have thought similarly not long ago. The idea only hit me recently. Santonio Holmes will likely be on his way out in 2014 and has been unpredictable since he's been here. It will also save a lot of cap money. Stephen Hill still has a ways to go still. Jeremy Kerley looked like a great slot WR and Braylon Edwards was decent, but he's another guy who's a question mark. The Jets need more playmakers wherever they can get them. In this scenario, Mingo is gone anyway and there aren't too many other viable options for them. They get a couple pass rushers in the 3rd and 4th rounds (and free agency) and get their starting RB in the next, so the other spots of need aren't neglected.
Sanchez has absolutely no reason to restructure so you'll have to edit your mock to account for that. Hea guaranteed the 8.25m so why in the hell would he even bother?
The restructures are more estimates than exact figures here. Some may be able to restructure more, less or not at all. The point is that they'll save cap room by restructuring some contracts. The post on the topic by nyjetscap.com gives us some ideas of how that might look
hill still needs time,true. drafting another wr high does not help that. hill wil become a solid #2. he had some drops but anyone who wasn't expecting that was little delussional, i.m.o. 2014 will be better cap wise and if they feel another wr will be needed then one will be available via f.a. and the $ will be there to sign one. 3rd and 4th round pass rushers are way to much of a gambe for a team that absolutely needs to fill that void
I like it, good job. I like how you kept Clyde Gates, he showed flashes to be a decent back-up at least. I like the draft a lot. Even though its a tough choice between Keenan and Cordarrelle, I think both would be good. If we did trade back I would take a receiver simply because no one else interests me so much. In FA I would look at Stevie Brown from the Giants. He showed this year that he could be a ball hawk, I think he's a FA. I agree with you, whoever the QB is, they wont have many excuses unless we have completely no run game. If we do draft a QB next year, and everything goes fine, he will have a very talentes offense. And we would still have a good defense. Edit: I think that I would rather us take Cordarrelle if we were to draft a WR first round. - Not at 9 obviously.
Carradine probably would be in a 1st or 2nd round pick if not for the injury. That might be true about them being a risk, but so are pass-rushers in any round. And in this scenario, Dion Jordan is the only OLB/DE on the board. If Jarvis Jones was available at #13, I'd take a chance, but he isn't here. Also, a Quentin Groves is signed and is a guy who can contribute. I think Gates will have a good shot to make the team next year. The addition of another wideout and the resigning of Braylon/Schilens could hurt his chances though... I chose Keenan Allen because I felt he is less of a project. Of course, who knows which guy is really "NFL-ready" and who isn't, but it seems like he's more of a developed WR. Stevie Brown might be an expensive signing after his Pro Bowl season (I think he's an RFA too). If anything, maybe Kenny Phillips would be available. He's similar to Landry in that he was a good player who's entering free agency after coming off of an injury. He's a guy I'd look into if I were the FO. WR in the first here stems from the general need for offensive play-makers. If the board fell this way, I'd have no reservations about grabbing a WR or the just any BPA at a position of relative need. It's certainly a pick that will many won't like at first glance, but after looking into it more and seeing how the rest of the draft goes, I'd be excited to add another top wide receiver.
I would much rather Markus Wheaton or Quinto Patton in the 2nd (or even 3rd as seen in the TGG 3 round mock draft) than Allen in the 1st. I don't see a top 15 pick in Allen. He's solid, but I dont see an elite player that you would want with such a high pick. I think our 2nd round pick is very high for Taylor. Once again, I dont see great upside. He's good, but I think players like Lacy and Bernard would present much better value there. I dont really see a scenario where both of them are off the board by our pick. Besides Cinci, I dont really think a team drafts a RB before our second round pick unless there's a big trade up. I think Taylor will be good, but Im not sure if he's that great RB that fixes all problems. The 3rd round picks are solid though. All in all good effort man. I think the value is a little off (a few reaches IMO, unlike other drafts here where players are being taken rounds after they should be drafted). I know its not the real deal or probably even close to what is going to happen in reality, but just look at our 3 round mock here- Taylor wasnt drafted in the first 3 rounds. Its a very deep draft at RB, and aside from Gio and Lacy, I think theres a big cluster of similar talent.
There's several guys on there that give us picks in 2014. Let them all walk (Greene, Keller, Moore, Landry) and stock up on those picks. If the couple of QBs people are talking about in 2014 are really the real deal, then we've got a ton of picks to trade up for what would ostensibly be our "franchise" QB.
the problem with that is, if they are everything people they think they will be, we might have to do the "ditka" to get up to the top to get 1 of the q.b.'s you feel ok with that?
Well.....no. Not an entire draft, but then again if the QB is a "sure thing" then I wouldn't be adverse to trading a couple of years worth of 1st rounders like the Skins did for RGIII. I realize no one knows a sure thing, but it's a lot more acceptable to do it for a QB who's going to carry the team for 15 years than it is for a RB like Williams was. If we have 4 extra picks, we can trade our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd and another 1st or two to get up there. As an example. So, it becomes would I feel ok giving up 3 first rounders and more, and the answer is.......for a franchise QB that's going to give us what we haven't had in my lifetime - absolutely, yes.
honestly, i'd rather give up a whole draft than that many 1st's. i'd rather walk away with 1 player next year and be able to put top talent around him going forward
Ok then in a year where we'd have an extra 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th, it'd be like having a whole draft and giving up a 1st and 2nd rounder. Do it! Either way, the Jets probably won't ever be 1-15 at the right time, so it's going to require a trade up to get a big guy coming out of college. Take your pick - a few years worth of 1st rounders or one year of picks in a year where we've got extra to play with.
