Mock Draft - Part 1

I've critiqued/shared my opinions of your mock drafts, and thought I'd be fair and give you the opportunity to critique mine.

Using the Walter Football Rumor of a Jets/Cleveland trade, I'm basing my draft on that trade down, with the Jets getting what they want from Cleveland (#12, #33, and #108). I've tried to balance BPA and need in this draft, and tried as best I could to take the players in the appropriate round, but definitely gave the edge to need. With the Jets many needs, it is impossible to address them all this season, but I tried. It's far from perfect, but think I would be pretty happy with this draft.

#12 - Charles Harris, OLB, Missouri
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/charles-harris?id=2558001
http://draftbreakdown.com/players/charles-harris/



The Jets have lacked a true edge rusher with speed forever. With the trade down, they finally have an opportunity to get a real edge rusher. At this point of the draft, it was between Derek Barnett and Harris. Harris has said that the Jets have contacted him more than any other team, so they obviously have a lot of interest in him. Harris is athletic and fast and can play in a 3-4 or 4-3 alignment.

#33 - Adam Shaheen, TE, Ashland
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/adam-shaheen?i
http://draftbreakdown.com/players/adam-shaheen/
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/f...-worst-kept-secret-the-odyssey-of-baby-gronk/




The offense needs some love, and the Jets definitely need a TE, preferably a 2-way TE. Shaheen has prototypical size, yet excellent speed and hands. He isn't a finished product, but his athleticism and being a former basketball player are in his favor. He needs work on run blocking, but is already a pretty good pass protector. Initially, I thought he would go in the 4th or 5th rounds, but according to the article by Jason LaCanfora for which I posted a link above, several NFL execs have said that he will go anywhere from early 2nd round to early 3rd round. He loves the game, and has a high ceiling.

#39 - Marcus Williams, FS, Utah
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/marcus-williams?id=2558068
http://draftbreakdown.com/players/marcus-williams-2/



IMO FS is a HUGE need for the Jets. I also considered Budda Baker and Obi Melifonwu here. I love everything about Baker's play, but fear with his small size he will have a hard time staying healthy, and he would not be able to cover TEs. Since the Jets have to play the Pats and Gronk 2x a year, I don't think Baker would be the best fit. Melifonwu has the size where he could cover TEs, but can be slow to diagnose plays and his instincts are lacking. Williams has good leaping ability, is athletic and has been productive both in terms of interceptions and tackling.

#70 - Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/samaje-perine?id=2558138
http://draftbreakdown.com/players/samaje-perine/



IMO Bilal Powell and Matt Forté are not enough to get the Jets through this season. With most likely a young QB starting, they need a RB to take the pressure off of that QB. Powell and Forté are very similar in that neither are a feature/workhorse-type RB and are excellent receivers. Both are also older, and wear down with too much usage. I think the Jets not only need another RB, but one who is different in makeup and style. Perine fits that mode. He is a workhorse type back and runs with power, something the Jets lack. He has the ability to break tackles and get extra yardage. He has great character, is a hard worker and team-first player. I think he will fit in well with a RB by committee approach. He also has soft hands and so wouldn't make the offense predictable. Whereas he doesn't have the speed to be a deep threat, he would be a solid screen and checkdown option for his QB.

 

#107 - Sidney Jones, CB, Washington
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/sidney-jones?id=2557958
http://draftbreakdown.com/players/sidney-jones/



While his injury is serious and he may never be the same player, he's so good, that I think he's worth the Jets taking a chance on. Greatness can't be achieved without risk. With medical technology today and a player who will work hard to rehab, I think it's an acceptable risk. He wouldn't be able to help much, if any, this season, but the Jets have Claiborne for a year which would give Jones time to adjust to life in the NFL, learn the D and get healthy. If he gets healthy and returns to form, the Jets will have their #1 CB. He excels in press coverage. Got his hands on 21.3% of passes thrown his way the last two years. Had 9 career interceptions. The only problem is that he might not be there at this pick.


#108 - Kendell Beckwith, ILB, LSU
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/kendell-beckwith?id=2557847
http://draftbreakdown.com/players/kendell-beckwith/



Beckwith isn't the ideal ILB as he is similar to David Harris in that he isn't very fast, athletic or very good in coverage, but like Harris, he's tough, disciplined, and is good at reading the plays. He has an above average football IQ, and has been very productive at LSU against top competition. He needs work on his pad level and on tackling. He would probably be a rotational player this season while he learns from Harris.


#150 Jalen Myrick, CB, Minnesota
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/jalen-myrick?id=2558140
http://draftbreakdown.com/players/jalen-myrick/



At this point, he is more of a STs gunner and KOR with his 4.28 speed, but has potential as a slot CB. He needs to work on pattern recognition and tackling.


#191 - Tyler Orlosky - C, WVA
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/tyler-orlosky?id=2557865
http://draftbreakdown.com/players/tyler-orlosky/



Was a team captain and 3-year starter. Strong, plays with a mean streak. Is limited, hence his low draft position, but has starter potential. Competition/depth at C.

#224 - Zane Gonzalez, K, AZ State
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/zane-gonzalez?id=2558178
http://draftbreakdown.com/players/zane-gonzalez/




The Jets need a new kicker. At this point, I don't think that either Chandler Catanzaro or Martin Ross are the answer.
From his NFL.com draft profile:

Priority FA - Sam Rogers, FB, VA Tech
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/sam-rogers?id=2558196
http://draftbreakdown.com/players/sam-rogers/



He is experienced as a blocker, pass receiver and runner. Is the best FB in the draft.

Priority FA DeVon Edwards, CB, Duke
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/devon-edwards-1.html



Edwards is still healing and may not be healthy until next year. He wasn't able to participate in the Combine or Duke's Pro Day. He tore his ACL against Notre Dame on Sept. 24. If he's healthy, he would be a good add as a return specialist and depth/nickle CB. In his career at Duke, he defensed 21 passes, had 5 interceptions (2 of which he returned for TDs in one game), 6 forced fumbles, and 8.5 sacks. He returned 6 KOs for TDs, which is one shy of the NCAA record of 7.

 

Yeah, Jones will probably go sooner.

Who do you think would be better at #12? Depending upon how the draft goes, I can see that Ramczyk, Njoku, Howard (if he's there), Mike Williams, and Corey Davis might be better.

One of the Jets' biggest needs is an Edge Rusher, and Derek Barnett and Harris are the best available at that point, and I think Harris has a higher ceiling and will be better in the NFL. The Jets evidently like Harris a lot, so I think there's a very good chance that if they do trade down that he will be their pick. If they like Mahomes, then they could take him there, and I wouldn't hate that. I also thought about Ramczyk there, but decided against it for a couple of reasons. One, Ramczyk is coming off two surgeries and only has one year of starting experience at the major college level. He's the best OT in this draft class, but will there be someone better next year who has 3 years of starting experience and no major injuries? I wouldn't be unhappy with him at #12, but since the Jets have Beachum it's not quite as desperate a need. Conversely, OLBs usually take a couple of years to develop and who knows when the Jets will have the opportunity to draft a difference-making edge rusher again? If they ever hope to compete for the SB, having a dominant pass rusher is just as important as having a FQB. I think Harris would be a better pick by virtue of the importance of the OLB position over WR. I like Shaheen's potential as much or more than Njoku's, and again think OLB is more important than TE, so I think Harris is a better choice than Njoku or Howard if he falls there.

I'm not wild about every one of my picks, but I was really trying to address as many holes as possible with the best players I could. I also tried to pick players with good character who loved football and were leaders. I consciously made an effort not to reach and to try to take players in the rounds where the media has suggested they will go. Who knows how accurate that is? The NFL always seems to value players differently than the media does.

We'll just have to disagree regarding drafting a kicker. I think rules like never drafting a kicker are dumb. The kicker is a very important part of a team's success. How many SBs would the Pats have won without Viniateri and now Gostkowski? It's important for limiting opponents' field position, for scoring the extra points and making critical FGs. Most 7th round picks don't stick or contribute much to teams anyway. A K has a much greater impact. The same goes for P.

 

Thanks for your response. I knew that many people wouldn't like not taking BPA in every round. I'm usually an advocate for going BPA, but I think part of the reason the Jets wound up in this personnel mess with all these holes is that they have always put BPA over need.

They are not reaches, at least according to NFL.com and CBS Draft Scout.com. Go to their web sites and see what round they have those players being taken.

As I said previously, this draft was an effort to address holes, so I went more with need than BPA, so there probably are better players at many, if not most of those spots. I also looked for leadership and character more than a higher draft grade thinking more along the lines of what the Patriots do. A number of those "better players" (like Jonathan Allen, Taco Charlton and others) wouldn't be good fits for the Jets. Ratings are subjective and vary widely from web site to web site and from the writer's perspective.

I may have criticized you for the Butts pick. I don't remember, but if so, I still would. He is limited and imo the next to worst of the 2-way TE prospects. IMO Howard, Njoku, Shaheen, Leggett and even Sprinkle are better prospects and less limited. I don't remember, but also think you took Butts higher. If so, there's a difference. I used the 3rd round compensatory pick (a 4th round pick really) to take Jones, and Jones is a MUCH better prospect than Butts is. In reality, he will probably go in the 2nd round, or earlier in the 3rd.

I was initially against taking a player with an injury, particularly high, as I think the first 2-3 players should be able to contribute immediately. I initially didn't consider Jones for that reason, but after watching more video on him and reading more about him, I changed my mind with regards to him. IMO he's worth the risk there (at the bottom of the 3rd), but not in the 2nd round.

 

If the Jets like Mahomes, I would be perfectly happy if they could trade down and get him at 12 instead of Harris. Otherwise, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

As for kicker, yes teams can get a kicker without drafting one, but if you want to get the kicker that you think is the best, and would be the best fit for your team, then imo you draft him to insure that you get him. Otherwise, you have to settle for your 2nd, 3rd or 4th choice and hope that he pans out.

Some positions are more important than others, and if the ratings of players are close, then those at the more important position should get the edge. IMO neither TE nor WR is more important than pass rusher, and both are more plentiful than pass rushers. In fact, the only two positions more important than pass rusher are QB and possibly LT. There isn't an LT there unless one counts Ramczyk, and he would be a good pick, but I think Harris could be a better choice. Unless there is a QB they really like and are thinking of taking him, then OLB should move to the top of the list imo.

Lance Zierlein of NFL.com has Williams rated as 6.29, Davis as 6.26, Derek Barnett rated as 6.19, and Harris as 6.0. CBS draft scout has Williams as the 21st best prospect. They have Davis rated as the 15th best prospect. They have Barnett as the 8th best prospect, and Harris as the 38th best prospect. I disagree with that ranking. Gil Brandt has Barnett as the 16th best prospect and Harris as the 17th best prospect. He has Mike Williams at #23 and Corey Davis as the 31st best prospect. With Joel Buchsbaum dead, I trust Gil Brandt's opinion a lot more than CBS Draft Scout or Lance Zierlein.

If you said that Barnett is a better prospect than Harris, you might have a point, but read their draft profiles and watch the video and tell me who has the chance to be a better edge rusher in the NFL. Here's Barnett's profile: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/derek-barnett?id=2557984 and Harris' profile: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/charles-harris?id=2558001 Barnett had more production in college, but he doesn't have the burst, lateral movement, agility, or twitch in his feet/legs to make him an elite pass rusher. He sounds like he will be more of an edge setter in the NFL imo. Harris has the speed, agility, athleticism, motor to excel in the NFL.

Trading up is out of the question and would defeat the whole purpose of trading down in the first place. Trading up is largely responsible for the holes the Jets have now. That's the last thing they should even consider. I'm sorry, but that makes no sense to me. The Jets have needed a speedy pass rusher since John Abraham. Usually, they're not in a position to get one. They are this year. Who knows when they'll be in a position to get one again? If they're drafting early again next year, they will be looking for a QB and/or an LT. If Mac has a good draft this year and then gets his QB next year, the Jets won't be drafting early enough to get an elite pass rusher again any time soon.

 

First, it's fine that you disagree with my first two picks. I didn't expect a lot of people to like them. I think my rationale is solid, however.

Did you read the article with the last link I posted under Shaheen above? I was surprised that Shaheen is being rated that high by NFL teams, but he is. They see him as a big-time prospect. You're certainly welcome to your opinion, but in terms of what kind of prospect Shaheen is, I trust NFL execs' opinions a lot more than I do yours or any other fan's, including my own.

You're wrong that he's not a record breaker. In the 2015 season he set the Division II record for TEs with 70 receptions.

 

Thanks.

I disagree that there's any chance that Harris will be there at #33.

I'm sincerely curious...Who would you take with the first two picks? Would you take a pass rusher? If so, who would you take and in what round? How about TE? I ask the same questions with regard to that position? If you were trying to address as many needs as possible, whom would you take in your draft?

Aside from QB and LT, imo the Jets two biggest needs are an elite edge rusher and quality TE. IMO it's really important that the Jets get a speedy edge rusher this year. It's been a critical need long enough, and it's a more important position than WR or any other position aside from QB. It's even more important than the LT position imo. Unless there's a QB they covet or they really want Ramczyk, imo there's no bigger need than edge rusher. It's been a long time since they've been in a position to get an elite edge rusher prospect. They are now. Who knows when they will be again?

In terms of the TE position, I think the 3 best for the Jets are Howard, Njoku and Shaheen. I think that Harris and Shaheen are probably a better combination than Howard or Njoku plus any edge rusher they could get in the 2nd round.

If you say trying to address all the holes isn't necessary, then I would agree with that. A better plan might be just taking BPA with not as much regard to position. I'm just tired of certain positions and needs being ignored as a result of that approach. That approach is how we wound up with so many 1st round picks being used on the DL, and the offense ignored in general, and the OL, OLB position and others being ignored specifically.

 

I don't think there's any way that we could get both Barnett and Njoku. I think that Harris is a much better prospect than Barnett and will be a far better player in the NFL.

It may be only a few NFL execs that have Shaheen rated that highly, but if most of them do, then he is not a reach in spite of what you or any other fan think. The NFL has a lot more information and facts upon which they base their ratings. They determine what is a reach and what isn't, not the media, and certainly not fans.

As for the year before his 70 catch season, that was his first year playing football since high school, and he was a walk on at Ashland and didn't get a lot of chances.

I certainly could be wrong, but I think it more important to get the best pass rusher first, then the best TE. I think Shaheen has a chance to be a very good pro, and maybe even better than either Njoku or Howard, and I think that Harris and Shaheen are a better combo than either Howard or Njoku and Tyus Bowser, or T.J. Watt, Jordan Willis, or Tim Williams, but I would be equally happy with either Howard or Njoku and Willis or Bowser.

Gil Brandt has Shaheen way down at #120, so maybe I was too influenced by that article, his size/measurables, character, production over the last two seasons, and the fact that he was a basketball player. There's limited video available on Shaheen to help either way.

Thanks for your thoughts and feedback!

 

I think Barnett is better at setting the edge, but the Jets already have an OLB who is good at that in Jenkins. Barnett is not nearly as fast or athletic as Harris, and is in fact, stiffer and less agile. He has succeeded with his hand play and power, but I think a lot of that will be neutralized in the NFL. Harris is fluid, flexible, fast, athletic and with his lateral movement ability and first step quickness, I think will be the better pro. His motor is every bit as good as Barnett's. I think being a former basketball player will help as well. He just needs to get stronger and develop his hand usage.

I agree that Jones probably won't make it that far down. It was more a case of wishful thinking that with it being such a good class of CBs, that maybe other teams would take CBs that they know were healthy and could play immediately rather than taking a risk on a player that may never be the same.