Making the case to NOT draft a WR in the 1st

Discussion in 'Draft' started by GasedAndConfused, Mar 7, 2022.

  1. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    I know lots of people have us taking or want a WR in the 1st. and there has been lots of discussion on who and everyone has their favorites be it london or burks which seem to be the 2 most popular here.

    With that said i'm going to make a case on why we shouldn't take a WR in the 1st


    1) Honestly, none are really worth a top 10 pick and our picks are 4 and 10. This one is big for me. i think lots of the WRs this year are overrated. i think it's a great group depth wise but lacks the elite top end. Sure we could trade down, but we could also trade down and take another position. Now I will say, I do feel wilson is worth a top 15 pick. I think he's the clear top WR and similar of a prospect to jerry judy and I don't think he falls past 13 from the brows but I don't think there is a huge drop off from him and like the 5th best WR

    2) it's very likely a 1st round talent WR falls to 35. We are picking at the 3rd pick in the 2nd round. we also have a pick at 38. Just like last year when moore fell to us in the 2nd someone is likely to fall. If a guy like olave falls to 35 it's way better value then taking a WR high. not to mention we would likely get an extra 2nd at least for trading back. it always happens too. metcalf fell from top 10 to 64. Wouldn't suprise me if we see a team reach for a WR who wow'd at the combine (I'd honestly not be surprised if watson went in the 1st) which means a 1st round guy will slip further

    3) There seems to be pretty good amount of talent and styles for each round after the 1st

    1st wilson, london, burks, olave, williams
    2nd dotson, tolbert, pickens, moore
    3rd ross, pierce, shakir, bell, metchie, wandale, doubs, watson
    4th austin, phillips, velus jones, drummond
    5th and later fryfogle, rambo, melton

    seems like were better off taking one in the 2nd and another in the 3rd or 4th.

    4) statistics have shown that out of the 1st 3 rounds of taking WRs the 2nd round has the best chance to land a pro bowler https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/stati...more-likely-in-the-2nd-round-than-the-1st-252

    5) 1st round WRs are risky. In the past 25 years
    WRs have the 3rd lowest all pro rate in the 1st (ahead of only TE and QB)
    WRs have the lowest pro bowl rate of any position in the 1st
    WRs have the 4th highest bust rate (behind RB, QB, and DL)
    Overall the only thing worse then a WR in the 1st is RB and DL when you factor in success vs bust rate

    https://bleacherreport.com/articles...e-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft


    I think for these 5 reasons we really shouldn't entertain a WR in the 1st this year
     
  2. Red Menace

    Red Menace Well-Known Member

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    Well done, I was thinking about this as the draft got closer and I have posted before how this draft was deep in WR and we could get one with second round pick.

    Great write up and historically the second round has had some gems of WR.
     
  3. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

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    The Jets have a poor receiving corp and they probably need to draft 3 receivers types in this draft. 2 WR and a TE. Its so long overdue to address the offense.
     
  4. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    which can all be done with picks in rounds 2-4

    3 is probably too much but i'd agree with a TE and 2 WRs for sure. we could take mcbride in the 2nd and a WR with the other 2nd and a dulcich in the 3rd and a WR in the 4th and still have another 4th for a LBer like damone clark. that means without using our 2 1sts we could add

    WR watson and austin
    TE mcbride and dulcich
    LB clark
    and use our top 2 picks on edge and whatever else and use our 2 5ths for o-line depth
     
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  5. Red Menace

    Red Menace Well-Known Member

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    The Jets could end up with KT at 4 and Ikem Okwanu at 10.

    I believe that a WR will fall to the second round that will be unexpected, late first round will be a run on offensive linemen and DE, teams are not going to reach for WR.

    You are right, Olave might even fall to us in second round.
     
  6. b.reyes16

    b.reyes16 Well-Known Member

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    At this point, i think the only receiver who is virtually guaranteed to go round 1 is Garrett Wilson. He's a safe, non-polarizing pick. Though tbh I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't go until the latter half of the first. There are so many good receivers w/ second or third round grades that I don't think anyone will reach. I have Burks at WR1 but there are teams who are going to drop him quite a bit after the combine and London's speed/separation concerns aren't going anywhere.

    I kinda hate the idea of not getting Zach any help in round 1 but it's starting to look like the value is going to be on the defensive side of the ball at the top of the first.
     
  7. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    I think for most Okwanu passed up neal. I don't think he lasts that long. could go 1st overall and if not i doubt the giants pass on him twice at 5 and 7. i'm hoping KT falls to 4. If He did and somehow hamilton fell to 10 i'd be ecstatic but I think realistically if we can land KT at 4 we trade back at 10 for a team looking to jump the commanders for a QB and just keep sliding back as much as possible to load up on mid rounders and picks next year. i think there is a lot of value in rounds 2-4 this year

    The browns are almost guaranteed to take a WR in the 1st and probably at least 1 if not 2 more during the draft. OBJ is gone, landry is likely gone. DPJ and schwartz haven't panned out. they need some serious help there and dont' have a lot of other needs
     
  8. Red Menace

    Red Menace Well-Known Member

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    I believe Jets are taking KT at 4, if he falls to them and either Linderbaum or Ojabo at 10.

    JD probably wants to split those top 4 picks evenly, 2 on offense and 2 on defense.
     
  9. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    I don't think we take 2 DEs in the 1st. i don't think o-line is in play either but we could take lunderbaum and move mcgovern to RG. Jets already said they had their free agency planned out so depending what happens there will probably dictate the draft.

    Also saleh said they look for unicorns in the 1st. the blue chip top players regardless of position. then said they look to fill out the roster with picks after that but believe the lines wins games. makes me think 4 and 10 will be BPA with no trade backs and then we'll look at lineman in the 2nd probably DT and O-line. then look to grab WRS/TEs etc in the 3rd and later rounds
     
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  10. Red Menace

    Red Menace Well-Known Member

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    Who are top 10 blue chip players in your opinion?
     
  11. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    honestly I don't think there are 10 in this draft. If I had to build the ones that i'd probably call blue chip

    Hutchinson
    Hamilton
    Thibodeaux
    stingly
    neal
    ekwonu
    maybe cross as well

    and then I look at our needs and the rest of the class and really don't want o-line so early. not after taking 2 in the 1st in back to back years. espicially if we extend fant and resign LDT or sign a RG that removes neal, ekwonu, and cross
    I don't want a CB either, I like our group, I think we can add a later guy like a josh jobe or kylar gordon and be fine. CB isn't a huge need for us and not very important in our system for a skill set like stingly. not to mention his injury.

    that means for me in play at 4 is really only KT, hutch, and hamilton.
    I don't really have anyone I love at 10 unless KT and hutch are gone at 4 and we take hamilton then I think edge at 10 is important but IDK who I want there yet. this edge class is deep and interesting. other then that i'd just trade down if possible
     
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  12. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

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    I think you missed the most important reason: MiLF wants to run a 12 personnel package
     
  13. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    We really don't know that. Matter of fact all signs point to the opposite based on their conferences.
    Saleh has mentioned games are won in the trenches and he doesn't think TE is a huge need. I'd be surprised if we drafted one in the 1st 2 rounds. I could see a guy like delcich in the 3rd though
    Saleh has also said "an offense is only as good as it's 3rd WR" which to me tells me he believes 3 WRs is the main personnel which means 11 not 12 is what we want to primarily run. it also would make sense since we signed cole and drafted moore last year and kept crowder. we took QB and O-line then WR with the top 3 picks. obviously we won't be taking a QB this year, but both o and d lines are in play as well as WR in our 1st 4 picks. I think DBs for them and LBers and TEs will be later sleeper guys.

    The only reason I think hamilton is in play is because saleh said in the 1st he likes "unicorns" over need and hamilton is the only unicorn prospect this year
     
  14. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

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    Correct, we don’t really “know” anything about what MiLF wants to do as he’s had limited talent to work with.

    We do know that JD made a big push for TE Jonnu Smith last year.

    We do know that MiLF ran 12 packages early on but ditched it (assumably bc lack of talent)

    We do know that the TE is a huge weapon in SF

    We do know that a good TE does work in the trenches

    "an offense is only as good as it's 3rd WR" to me it says depth is needed everywhere.

    “Saleh has mentioned … he doesn't think TE is a huge need” this is news to me, I’d love a link
     
  15. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

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    I found this link in which you took your quote and I think you 100% misinterpreted his statement.

    https://sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/robert-saleh-talks-jets-future-163200064.html

    “There’s an old saying your only as good as your third receiver that doesn’t necessarily mean a wide receiver it could be a tight end”
     
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  16. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not a big fan of trading down a bunch. Joe Douglas is not Jimmy Johnson and the Jets need real talent not roster fillers. We can tackle next year, next year.
     
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  17. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

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    JD is a GM - JJ was a HC so they definitely aren’t the same.
     
  18. chandler

    chandler Well-Known Member

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    ^^Jimmy Johnson had an awesome eye for talent.

    I'm not opposed to a WR in the first. But I'm not insisting we use a 1 on WR either. A lot will depend on how they trust their own judgment on drafting WRs (as opposed to trade or FA where at least the guy has NFL tape)

    I do think we should capitalize on 4 and 10 not trade down this year. There has been a lot of awesome impactful players in that range. JJ Watt and DOnald were picked lower (yeah i know hindsight). But the point is i don't want to use 4 and 10 for JAGs or JAG+. I want impact. If they see that in WR fine by me. If they think the center is a generational talent then so be it.

    Be objective and disciplined though.
     
    #18 chandler, Mar 7, 2022
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2022
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  19. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    well of course we don't know anything. we just take our bets guesses based on what he know historically of the 2 (JD and saleh) philosophy wise.
    we haven't seen MLF really call plays before. 2021 was the 1st time he did. But we do know saleh handpicked him because they have the same beliefs in how the offense should work

    We know about the Jonnu smith thing but it's pretty lucky we didn't. 50 mil for less then 300 yards and he's not even much of a blocker and wound up essentially being the TE2 behind hunter henry who is who I really wanted last year over smith. either way yes 1 TE is a need, we literally don't have a starting capable TE currently and didn't last year or the year before. so obviously JD will look at TEs again and may try to sign one in free agency. But needing 1 doesn't mean we'll run more 2 TE sets

    that's actually not true. I'm not sure where that rumor came from at all. the 1st month we ran 59% 11 and 35% 12. it was still almost 2 to 1 in favor of 3 WR sets over 2 TE sets.
    over the whole season it was 61% 11 to 20% 12 or 3 to one.
    part of the reason we used it more earlier was due to cole missed week 1, crowder missed weeks 1-3 and moore was a rookie and missed a lot of camp and pre season and also missed week 4. the injuries at WR forced more 12 sets then he wanted since we had 4 healthy TEs JD also traded herndon for a 4th rounder before the season despite the lack of TE talent on the roster.
    either way the jets have always favored 11 personnel at least 2 to 1 but as high as 3 to 1 when we had healthy WRs

    again another myth. they have arguably the best TE in the NFL who would be a weapon in any scheme. even with that they run 12 personnel less then us. they ran 11 48% compared to 12 10%. almost 5 to one. they run a lot more 21 then us which is 2 RBs. it's possible we could run more there if we had a better FB. but the niners who have a top 3 TE and top 3 FB at worst, still rarely use 12 or 21 in favor of 11. only 1 team in the NFL ran 12 more then 11 and that was miami.
    it's also why saleh said an offense is only as good as it's 3rd WR. he knows it's a starting position. the jets base offense is 11. 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 RB. WR3 is more important then TE2.


    not at all. sure they pass block sometimes but trenches in coach speak is specifically the lines only. you wouldn't count a LBer who blitzes at times as a trench guy. he means o-line and d-line only. not TE

    wasn't his context and I explained it above.

    https://forums.theganggreen.com/threads/salehs-press-conference-plus-latest-jet-rumors.96996/

    I believe this was the conference he said it. i've watched a lot fo his and JDs conferences (well all of them) and if you combine it with what JD did last 2 years as a GM and what eagles, philly, and niners have done (salehs and JDs upbringings recently) it all lines up to get an idea how they think
     
  20. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    You are right but you also cut it short there. it was talking about guys who can win their matchups to help the CB. after he said that he also said it could be a RB. Of course we want to improve the TE spot but it doesn't mean he wants to use more 12 personnel. every stat and fact from anyone who ran this offense and every team in the NFL say otherwise. Even NE who paid out about 100 mil in free agency for 2 TEs only ran 2 TE sets 14% of the time. 11 personnel is the new norm in the NFL for eevry team including us

    depends what the draft dictates. the "real talent" spots in this draft aren't that high and the few that stand out aren't in a position of need for us. trading back for more picks in the richer value rounds here and even for next years picks would be more helpful overall.
     
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