I only do one of these per year. Since it looks like we are done with any major moves (with the exception of maybe Revis), I figured today would be a good day to post my mock. *Note: This is who I would pick, not who I think the Jets will select.* Round 1 -- Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia– 6’2” 245 lbs I would take Jordan here, but I think he is gone before the #9. Jones may not have tested well, but he is the most polished OLB available. He has a knack for finding the QB and can be an every-down LB. Steps in immediately opposite Barnes. Round 2 – Robert Woods WR Southern Cal – 6’0” 202 lbs Very productive player, great hands, superb route running and a perfect fit for the new WCO. Round 3 – Barrett Jones C/OG Alabama – 6’4” 305 lbs If he’s not coming off an injury, he probably goes in the 2nd. The most versatile OL in the draft. Can play any position if needed.
Round 4 – Baccari Rambo S Georgia – 6’0” 212 lbs I was thinking the Honey Badger here, but I’m guessing he get overdrafted in the 3rd. Baccari can be a starter on this team by 2014 and will contribute right away on ST. Plus, I want a jersey with RAMBO on the back. Round 5 – Matt Scott QB Arizona – 6’2” 215 lbs The only QB I really like in this draft is Manuel. He’s long gone by now. The Jets need a developmental guy on the roster. Scott is a guy who has potential and at worst be a WildCat guy/backup in 2014. Round 6 – Miguel Maysonet RB Stony Brook – 5’9” 210 lbs Local guy. Tough, decisive runner. With the signing of Goodson, I don’t see RB as a major need this season. More likely next year. Round 7 – Levine Toiolo TE Stanford – 6’7” 261 lbs The other Stanford TE. Great size in the red zone. With 2 NFL TEs in front of him on the depth chart the past two years, I feel Toiolo could be a hidden gem of the draft.
Scott's been mocked to go in the 3rd round before we pick in most mocks I have seen the last few months. It is possible he slides to round 3 or even 4 with all the QBs sliding but I don't think there is much of a chance he is still around in round 5. We will be lucky if he is there for our 3rd round pick. But I do agree with you about Scott. He shows toughness, poise, a quick release, ability to get the ball out on time and ability to run with the ball. The little I have seen on him on tape I question is arm strength and mechanics. He looks awful raw and will be a developmental guy with upside. He could be be a wildcat change of pace QB much better than Tebow while he develops. But for taking a flier on a QB that probably will not work out he offers the ability to contribute with his feet. Which for me puts him ahead of most of the other risky QBs. Woods is looking like a 3rd rounder right now and #9 seems 10-15 spots to high for Jones. I have seen Barret Jones going in the 4th. Round 3 may be a bit early.
Thanks for the input Noam. I would be shocked to see Scott go before the 4th. Woods, IMO, is the 4th ranked WR in this draft (Austin, Patterson, Williams) and I think he ends up going early to mid 2nd. I see no difference picking a guy at #9 or at #20. If you like a guy, you like a guy. Weather it's at #9, #15 or #22, it's still the same player. People get too caught up in what number a guy should be picked.
That would be a great draft, but outside of jones and maysonet I think you have every one a bit low value wise. Would be wonderful if the picks all play out like that.
It's so hard to figure out where a lot of players will get drafted. What helps is that the Jets will be drafting early in each round. I could definitely see some of those guys being drafted before the spots I predicted. And Falco, I hate Dysert as a prospect. The film I watched on him leaves the impression of fringe NFLer.
Not sure what film you're watching. He's 6'4 230lbs, runs a 4.8 40, and can throw on the run with great accuracy. Makes awesome decisions and has a hell of an arm. Jets are bringing him in for workout. He apparently impressed the shit out of Rex, Idzik, and MM.
Apparantly you've never seen or heard of DeAndre Hopkins, who many feel is better than the three (four w/ Woods) you've mentioned. Obviously I wouldn't be shocked to see NUK the first WR drafted this year. However, very enjoyable reading.
I watched 3 full games: Ohio St, Boise St, Cincinnati. Three road games against what I considered his toughest tests. He was too inconsistent and skiddish in the pocket. Nothing about his game made me think that he was an NFL calibre QB. He looks like Big Ben, but I don't think he has that type of talent.
Of course I know who Hopkins is. IMO, Woods is a better route runner and has better hands. I have Hopking 5th on my list,followed by Hunter and Patton. The entire WR group is extremely close IMO.
There are 2 parts to a draft getting talent and manipulating the draft to get as much value as possible. A prime example of this is the Jeff Laggeman pick in 1989. He was projected to go in the 4th round and the Jets took him with the 14th pick of the 1st round. He almost certainly would have been available in the 2nd and 3rd round. Laggeman turned out to be a good player but the Jets wasted their pick on him as they could have used a later pick or simply traded that 1st backwards to get more value. Even getting poor value trading back 2 rounds would have resulted in a good haul of draft picks and still allowed the Jets to draft Laggeman. Plus they could have paid Laggeman a much lower salary as he would have been a much later draft pick. A similar thing happened in 2006 when we drafted Eric Smith and the boar hunter guy in the 3 rd round. Both were projected as 7th round to undrafted players. We could almost certainly got Schelgal and Smith in the 5th round. Although Smith was rising. The point here is we wasted valuable picks on guys who we could have gotten later. The same goes for taking a guy at 9 if you can take him at 20. It is not good value While its debatable he will be there in the 20's but his stock is certainly falling after his bad pro day and combine. The point is the draft is not just about how the good the player you draft is but maximizing the use of your picks by getting good value for those picks. Which means having good intelligence as to what other teams are going to do. If the Jets want a player at 9 they believe will be there at 20 it makes sense to try to trade down and then if that cannot be done then take him by all means. But I disagree with your point quoted above quite a bit. A team should look for value with their picks. If they believe someone is "the guy" they want, I have no problem with them taking him early but they still need to keep in mind getting reasonable value for that pick. As much as many people hate NE they do an excellent job in trading back to get the guy they want without drafting him to early and then getting additional picks in return. It is sad as they seem so often to get their guy and an extra pick or to.
I would be very happy with this draft, you fill many holes with one fell swoop. I like the low risk high reward with Maysonet, he raised a lot of eyebrows this year, and RB's can make an impact in the NFL from smaller schools because you see their true talent come out and not necessarily yards produced by a fantastic OL.
I would be happy with this draft. I'd much rather have Dysert over Scott though. I'm also a fan of drafting Renfree in rounds 6 or 7.
He has accuracy issues and tends to stare down his first read far too long. He is a good developmental guy, but far from a polished player. His off feild intangibles are high quality, but his play is very up and down to me.
Noam, I think we are talking about different things here. I'm talking about guys with first round grades. For example, last year I wanted the Jets to draft Nick Perry out of USC. Many people said that #16 was too early for Perry. He wound up going 28th to the Packers. IMO, if you like a guy at 16, then it makes little difference if he goes 28. It's all the same to me.
That is exactly what I was talking about. There are 2 parts to a draft pick talent evaluation and getting value. To draft a guy at 16 who your confident can get at 28 is terrible value as you could have accumulated more picks by trading back 5-10 spots if you could find that opportunity. It is what i talked about in my other posts where a team like NE works the draft so well where they do not overdraft people and take them to early. They trade back get the player they want and extra picks. This really puts premium on having good intelligence and knowing what other teams are going to do. Soemtimes this backfires like in 2006 when the Jets wanted a LB in the third round and they traded back 5 spots with the Eagles for a 6th rd pick. The Eagles then took the Jets guy and the Jets panicked and took Eric Smith as they were so sure the LB they wanted would still be there. You may have great at talent evaluation but your selling yourself short if you take a guy to early. The poster child for this type of behavior is the Laggeman pick I discussed earlier.
Mike Haight, Bob Crable, Balir Thomas, Roger Vick, Russel Cater, Dave Cadigan....these names are sure familiar to you. All first round busts. Jeff had a solid career, maybe not All Pro but still had some impact, and that is all you need to know in a nut shell.The only reach I thought out of the bunch mentioned was Bob Crable. All well and good in your logic and system for getting the BPA. But in reality, that doesn't hold very well when you look at the players the Jets, or for that matter any other NFL, have picked in the 1st round, for example. You can never be sure about anything for what ever position you are in the draft sequence. Jeff may have been a reach, but just suppose they picked another player. What are the chances that it would turn out just as good?
This is what I call a GREAT GREAT MOCK DRAFT LON CHANEY!!!!! I would be overjoyed as a JETS fan if this came true.
