First off, I will say that I tried to do a little research on realistic expected contract terms before posting this, but if I'm off a little on years/dollars, I apologize. As far as I can tell, we are set to be just over $48 million under the cap. After the HOPEFUL release of Percy Harvin, that should put us just under $60 million under the cap, which brings me to my plan for the offseason. Looking at our current players that are scheduled to be free agents, these are the players I would like to see brought back: Douzable- 3 yrs @ $2.5M/yr Harrison- 4 yrs @ $4.5M/yr Ellis- 3 yrs @ $1.5M/yr Harris- 3 yrs @ $5.5M/yr Jarrett- 2 yrs @ $1.5M/yr Purdum- 3 yrs @ $1.25M/yr Add in a contract extension for Wilkerson, which I project to come close to 6 years @ $12M/yr, which is $5M more than he's scheduled to make this year. That puts an additional $21.75M to the 2015 salary cap. Add in that we'll need approximately $6M to sign our draft picks, that takes us to $27.75M added. Now, I'd also like to cut Babin and Pace, which frees up another roughly $3M, which now leaves us with $40M, give or take a million, remaining for free agents. Now this is where this becomes a little bit of a dream, in that I will be looking at a couple guys that LIKELY won't be available, but until that is a SURE thing, they're available to me. CB- Brandon Flowers- 4 yrs @ $7M/yr (at first glance, seems low, but he's by no means an elite CB and coming off a 1 year deal, so getting a 4 year contract, especially if a large chunk is guaranteed, may entice him at this price) S- Danorris Searcy- 2 yrs @ $2.5M/yr (not a stud, but not practice squad material either, could help us while Allen/Pryor hopefully better develop) OLB- Justin Houston- 6 yrs @ $13.5M/yr (rumors he will be tagged, but KC can't afford that at all, so there may be a decent chance he's available) OG- Mike Iupati- 5 yrs @ $6.5M/yr (I'm not sure if $6.5 will do it, but it should be close considering OG's aren't exactly making OT/WR/QB/CB money) Those 4 contracts combined add up to just under $30M/yr, and that's before any bonuses and whatnot that could adjust the actual cap numbers. That leaves us with still $10+ million in cap room, which will likely change with a couple minimum salary additions. As for the draft, here's what I would like to see happen: Round 1- Dante Fowler, OLB- just think about that front 7 for a second...the Sons of Anarchy, Justin Houston and Dante Fowler/Quenton Coples, with Davis and Harris in the middle. If that doesn't get you hard, then you're not a real man. Round 2- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR- in my free agency additions, I failed to address the WR position, which means we'll still have to address it at least once in the draft. DGB may be a risky move, but we need to do something to get some play makers on this team. Round 3- Bryce Petty, QB- We need to draft a QB this year, and after Winston, I don't think there's one worth the number 6 pick overall. Petty probably won't be able to start immediately, but it's not like we expect to contend next season anyways, so letting him develop for a year or so shouldn't be a problem. Round 4- David Johnson, RB- After cutting CJ and possibly losing Powell, I think its safe to say we'll be drafting a RB at some point this year. Johnson is a sleeper prospect who's helped himself with a strong senior bowl showing and combine performance. Round 5- Ali Marpet, OT/OG- Another sleeper prospect with strong showings at both the senior bowl and the combine, all sorts of publicity after being the only OL to run the 40 in under 5 seconds. Showed a lot of talent at a small, no name school. Could develop into a replacement RT/RG, or HOPEFULLY even a LT if we're lucky. Round 7- Craig Mager, CB- Taking a flyer on a CB with some potential upside, but with a 7th round pick, its not like we'll be relying on him. This leaves us with a likely starting roster of: QB- Geno/Petty RB- Ivory/Johnson WR1- Decker WR2- DGB WR3- Kerley TE- Amaro/Cumberland LT- Brick LG- Iupati C- Mangold RG- Dozier/Winters/Campbell/Marpet... RT- Giaocomini DE- Wilkerson DT- Harrison DE- Richardson OLB- Houston ILB- Harris ILB- Davis OLB- Fowler/Coples CB1- Flowers CB2- Milliner S- Pryor S- Searcy Not too shabby if I do say so myself. And this scenario only has us relying on a couple rookies, possibly only 1 if the additions of Fowler and Houston push Coples like I expect they could. This also addresses enough holes to where we should be able to use our 1st rounder next year on a replacement for Brick to save us from his insane cap number. All these moves combined with being able to cut Brick next offseason should put us around $27M under the salary cap next year.
I no its your dream scenario but Houston is going to get tagged and Flowers isn't an ideal fit for the defense we are going to be running
Houston + Fowler is too much. If we managed to get Houston (which we won't), we wouldn't draft an OLB.
If he is the best player available (Fowler could be the third best player in the entire draft) why not? Also, I do not think Houston is realistic but he did call it a dream off-season. My only critique (given that we are talking dream off-season) is that Douzable should be the $1.5 mil and Ellis should be the $2.5 mil. Also, I hope we get Marpet in round five but after the combine round four would be more realistic. But if we can get Houston in free agency, why not Marpet?
Like the resignings and agree that I'd probably pay Harris 5.5m/yr if it's structured in such a way that he can be cut easily in 2016 or 2017 if need be. I'll nitpick and say that, as a previous poster said, Douzable and Ellis should be flipped. Douzable resigned for just 1yr/1m in 2o14 after a good 2013 (surprisingly low deal IMO). Also, Jarrett is an RFA and can be tendered at an original round for 1.5 and 1 yr unless you do feel he warrants a 2-year deal. Flowers had a big time bounce back year, but he's a scheme specific player and I don't think he'd fit with this team. He had an awful 2013 season when he was in such a scheme. Searcy is pretty much a SS, I believe. IMO a veteran FS or someone who covers well would be more ideal. Iupati will probably get more than 6.5m/yr. If we could get Houston for 13.5m (as you and many have said, he probably doesn't get out of KC, but I could still see a scenario in which he does I guess), I'd be very on board. That would make him the highest paid OLB by a hair, and he deserves it. I don't like cutting Babin as he was effective as a pass-rusher and in run-defense and earns very little. However, given your 1st round pick, I see where you're going. Fowler looks good to me, but now it looks like he's getting top 5 attention. Personally, I'd rather go with White or Cooper at 6 and then go for a pass-rusher later on. I just can't say I trust DGB.. I'm not particularly a Petty fan, but if this team sees a starter, then sure. I'd like to see a little more at RB than Ivory and a 4th round rookie, but Johnson is a good prospect. Sounds like Marpet is now a Day 2 prospect actually. And Mager has some good traits from what I read. Looking at the final roster, I'd like to see another RB added and I don't like putting DGB in immediate position to start. If you draft DGB there, I'd like to see another veteran signed on the cheap, perhaps like Nate Washington or Brian Hartline or someone. He still has to develop and get ready. Line looks good. I guess you have Aboushi at RG. You could probably trade Coples for decent value to a 4-3 team given the top two acquisitions were OLBs and this team looks very much set there now (maybe Babin is kept on in this situation). We need more at CB than just Brandon Flowers and a developmental draft pick. Milliner may not even be healthy. And it looks like you see Searcy as a FS, but I'm pretty sure his position is SS. Overall, I would take a different approach and I have a handful of questions about the final roster, but it looks okay
As others noted Houston probably isn't likely but if you remove that, use that cap space to bring in a WR and if you have enough cash left over a veteran QB that would be pretty good. If you get a veteran QB then instead of taking Petty in the 3rd you can take the best CB or OT/OG. That way you've brought in a good OLB, veteran QB, two WRs, two CBs, two OL and a few other pieces.
If we were to get Houston, I'd rather draft Scherff than Fowler than have to see Winters play another snap. I'd also like to have a veteran QB in case Geno still can't perform/progress a lot in a spread offense with improved protection. If not Flowers, than Kareem Jackson. I'd like to bring in 2 veteran corners and not rely on Milliner or McDougle's recovery, and it seems that our new GM agrees with me on it. But good post, I agree with almost all of it.
Check your math. You said: $60 million Cap space (after cutting Harvin) -$21.75 extending Wilk and re-signing our own FAs $38.25 remaining -$6 million to sign draft picks (may be closer to $7 million) $32.25 million remaining +$3 million cutting Pace & Babin $35.25 million remaining, NOT $40 million to spend on FAs. I'd love to add Justin Houston, but don't see any way he will sign for that little. I expect him to want well over $15 million per. I've seen figures for Worilds of $12 million, and if that's accurate, there's no way Houston would settle for $13.5. Further, imo we have too many needs to pay him that much. Why pay all that money for one player when we're not ready to compete? He's not going to put us over the top. Similarly, I don't think there's any way Iupati signs for less than $8 million per year, and since he's not that good of a pass blocker, I really don't want him. I'd rather have Orlando Franklin, James Carpenter or Clint Boling, or maybe even the OG that Atlanta released. Oh, almost forgot...with several other teams after Harris, I don't see any way he signs for less than $7-$8 million per year, and he's not worth that. There are several other younger depth players you didn't mention, so I assume you created a holes at a number of other positions by not re-signing them. Bellore, a backup ILB and perhaps our best STs player you evidently let walk. As others have points out, Searcy, is a SS and we already have a roster full of those and no real FS. I also like the Flowers signing, but isn't he more of a slot Corner? If so, that's fine as he could replace Wilson. I don't know if he would fit our scheme or not, but we need a true outside CB. Like others, I think we definitely need more than 2 RBs. I see no reason not to keep Powell. He's excellent in blitz pickup and is a solid all around back. I'd rather have Mariota, but since you don't like him, and you do address the QB position by taking Petty, and I like Fowler, so would be happy with that pick. I love DGB's talent, but will be shocked if Mac takes him. IMO it would take some pretty big stones for a rookie GM to take someone like DGB. Johnson did indeed look impressive in the Sr. Bowl. I like Marpet, but will be surprised if he falls to the 5th round. I think he's gonna surprise some people and be able to play much sooner than people think. Overall, not bad. I've seen a lot worse and could live with that if the numbers were adjusted.
