Long post. Just watched more tape on Mitchell Trubisky and I'm convinced he is better than Watson. Let me explain why by breaking down the categories. Stats: (Edge Trubisky) Trubisky stats for the last two years: 344 Comp, 493 Att, 69.8% Comp Watson stats for the last two years: 721 Comp, 1,070 Att, 67.4% Comp With Just those stats I would agree Watson has a bigger body of work, but when you look at other stats and how the stats were put up, Trubisky showed flashes of a higher ceiling. Looking at the team they had around them and the TDs/Ints, Trubisky takes a big jump into the lead. Trubisky 36 TDs, 6 Ints Watson 76 TDs, 30 Ints Watsom had twice the TDs over the two years with twice the starts, but his INT rate was FIVE times what Trubisky posted. Those Ints were thrown against college DBs and throwing to NFL caliber WRs/RB/TE. More with less: (Win Trubisky) I give the award for doing more with less to Trubisky and lets face it, the Jets have a lot less than the other teams in our division. Clemson has a top 3 and a top 15 WR in this year’s draft. Add in a top 10 RB (Wayne Gallman) and a top 5 TE (Jordan Leggett) and he had the best offensive supporting staff in college. No other QB had close to the supporting players Watson had. Hell, Watson even had a top 5 Center giving him the ball every play and calling his protection. Mitch Trubisky was the reason for his team’s success. There are three other offensive players from North Carolina which have a chance to be drafted, and they will be lucky to be called in rounds 6-7, if at all: WR Ryan Switzer, OT Jon Heck and OG Caleb Peterson. All three are rated between 25-30 at their position in the draft. Schedule: (Edge Trubisky) When looking at the schedules, you can say Watson had a harder schedule, but I totally disagree, he had the easier one. He got to play Syracuse (W 54-0), Wake Forest (W 35-13) South Carolina State (W 59-0), South Carolina (W 56-7) and Troy (W 30-24). Really, Troy who limited him to 50.9% and 2 Ints showing his lowest rating of the year. Show me four easy teams Trubisky faces which resemble that schedule. To further prove the point lets look at the five teams they both faced (Florida State, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, NC State). Just saying, if five of the teams Watson faced were the same, and four of the teams were the four easy ones mentioned about, either the schedules were the same or Trubisky had the harder one. During those five games against the same defenses Trubisky posted 14 TDs with 4 INTs. Watson posted only 12 TDs with 8 INTs against the same opponents. Mechanics: (Edge Trubisky; neither worked under center) They both are equal size, speed and strength so it's a push there, but then you have to look at velocity, spiral, distance and accuracy; all are real important in playing outside in the northeast which is at least 10 regular season games a year. Trubisky has a tighter spiral and faster ball; it you doubt it watch the tape, there is plenty available online. Add in that Trubisky played behind a weaker line , had much less of any down field threat or running game. Teams were much more afraid of Clemson's Wayne Gallman (6'0.5", 215lbs) than North Carolina's TJ Logan or Elijah Hood. We all know a good running attack opens up the passing game. Plus, nothing helps your passing game like having NFL quality guys on the other end of the ball. Clemson's Mike Williams could be the 1st WR off the board in the draft and their TE Jordan Leggett will probably have his name called on day two. Watson may have has a completion percentage close to Trubisky, but it wasn't earned. Trubisky is more accurate with his throws. Watson had bigger targets (Mike Williams 6'3.5", Jordan Leggett 6'5.5") and a much better receiving talent all around to make incredible catches/saves. Trubisky had mighty mights Ryan Switzer who's 5'8.5" and TJ Logan who is 5'9". Summary * When looking at the whole person concept, Trubisky wins in a big way. Sure Watson's team which he was the QB of won the championship, but this is not the Heisman Trophy. You don't pick the QB of the best team, you pick the best QB and in this case Trubisky has shown more in less, and most believe his ceiling is higher. Watson is like Geno Smith, but even Geno didn't throw that many Ints in college, he waited until he got to the NFL. I feel Watson will be an INT machine when the NFL DBs get a shot at him. The Jets have had enough of INT machines with Sanchez, Smith and Fitz.
I don't love any of the qbs in this draft and I'm usually a pro qb guy. I agree Mitchell is better prospect than Watson... playing in the meadowlands makes this even more so for me. Personally, i think the Jets shouldnt draft a qb, but if they do then maybe look to a guy like Peterman in mid rounds (if he's there). Reminds me of Bree's how he plays the game/sees the field... albeit with less arm talent. Still, I think he could step in now and play better/under more control than Petty or Hackenberg. I'd let Petty prove himself through training camp and either cut him or Mcnown.
If the Jets didn't have so many holes at other positions including OL and could afford to pick a project player to wean him, I'd say go for it - it's been harped on by many pro experts that Trubisky has the higher ceiling but, they desperately need a good deep draft in some critical positions - and this is the draft to do it. Trade down with Cleveland or whomever ( maybe twice?) and fill those holes. It's been read by many regarding this years draft that the first 50 players are potential day 1 starters....of course it's still a crap shoot.
I'm fine with taking Trubisky and letting him develop along with Hackenburg. If neither guy pans out, everyone is fired, and let the new administration take another QB with what would be a high draft pick. Otherwise I'd like to trade back...
Question for the board: While I'm very intrigued by Trubisky, my biggest concern is playing experience and thus available tape... So my question is this....what QB prospects with only 1 yr college starting experience have been successful in the NFL?
As far as I know, NONE. No to Trubisky. If the Jets are going to take a QB, it should be Mahomes following a trade down or in the 2nd round.
Carson Wentz only completed 392 passes in college (48 more than Trubisky) , yet he had 7 wins last year in his rookie season, 4 more than Peyton Manning in his rookie season. Kurt Warner only started his senior year of college and is in the HOF. You can't judge a college QB by how many years or starts, you can only use those to help decide if you want to give him a chance. His 1st HC /OC in the NFL will have more to do with his success, which doesn't look good for any Jet QBs.
Nope, Cam started for a year or two at a Jr. College prior to Auburn, where he won the national championship.
Trubisky wasn't good enough to play his first 2 seasons and then left after his Junior season. That's like an enormous reach at 6. Humongous reach. Amazingly terrifying reach. Mark Sanchez redux.
I'd rather wait and get Peterman or Dobbs than reach for Mitch...... Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
I like Mahomes better than Trubisky. While I'd prefer to trade down and take him, I'd entertain the pick at 6 if Trubisky goes 1-5 and the Jets feel they can't get Mahomes at whatever spot they trade down too. His grade is lower because of his college system. If the team feels he can be the player that overcomes that, like I do, then you have to take him. Sent from my KIW-L24 using Tapatalk
Easily would rather have Mahomes over Mitchell. Mahomes elite arm strength, got plenty of starts, and a lot of things you can't teach. Mitchell at best is Ryan Tannehill that's pretty crappy.
I'll support whoever we throw out there...so hopefully those in charge don't mess up The 1 year of college play bothers me- Trubisky isn't an elite specimin like Cam or Winston, doesn't have the time to wait like Rodgers, and I think Stanford is another who went in early and hasn't completely busted. I saw an interview with the kid and he didn't come across overly intelligent, like he'd been hit too many times. For Mahomes- just too reckless and too long to develop. Why redraft a different type of Hackenberg (maybe more "polished" in ability to improv but years away) The "It" factor with Watson intrigues me. Winston had the interceptions and intangibles in the same way- but Watson hasn't been under center as much. I just think the right OC could ease it along but the locker room would immediately buy in on the guy assuming he works for it. It would be a reach, but he seems like a more successful Dak without the DUI.
And "call me Mitchell" is the best prospect in this year's draft. Don't do it Maccagnan......the QB answer's on the 2018 horizon...
Here is what I was able to come up with from memory and like 10 minutes on google Warner 1 full year as starter in college Newton 1 full year as starter in college to a lesser exstent of NFL success Cassell 0 full years as starter in college Tannihill 1 full year as starter in college Jury is still out on but not looking good for Seimian 1 full year as starter in college Osweiler 1 full year as starter in college
