I know we don’t have scouting resumes but we all enjoy discussing NFL prospects. Joe has a pretty simple grading system, I copied and pasted the grading system below. It was taken from an article in the NY Post. My thoughts on this are simple, instead of using our own parameters, we actually have Joe’s system, so we can grade the player like we are scouts for Joe. Let me know what you guys think. A more streamlined approach, Joe Douglas grading system is as follows: The Jets’ new grading scale technically maxes out at 8.0, but it’s highly unusual for a prospect to ultimately earn that score. In fact, none of the evaluators who spoke to the News recalled anyone receiving that mark. For all intents and purposes, a 7.0 is the gold star in this scale. Here are the five tiers of the grading scale that differentiate whether the prospect is a starter, backup or just a warm body: Day 1 starter Starting-caliber player with limitations (that might or might not be correctable) Role player (aka — spot starter or significant contributor in sub packages) Low-level roster player and/or practice squad Training camp/preseason roster filler (aka — Camp body) A 7.0 is reserved for elite Day 1 starters. The rest of the prospects are graded on what scouts believe the player will ultimately become in 2-3 years. It’s essentially a weighted score. Most Day 1 prospects earn 6.7s. Although they’re penciled in as Day 1 starters, they still need to make improvements (like strength or technique) to realize their full potential. Players that score a 6.1, 6.3, or 6.5 are typically taken in the Top 100 (aka — premium players). Any prospect with a 5.8 or above grade is considered draftable. A 5.6 or 5.7 player would fall under the practice squad/training camp body category. The numerical grades come with “alerts” or “types” to highlight potential hurdles. A “Z” alert, for example, signifies an undersized prospect. So, a “6.7 Z” identifies an undersized starting-caliber talent. A “T” alert means that a player offers special teams value in addition to his offensive/defensive position. A “M” type signifies a mental alert if a team has concerns about whether a prospect will be able to grasp nuances of the scheme. Can he learn what is being taught? Character, or a "C" alert, plays an important — and sometimes nebulous –— role in the grading scale. A “C” alert could have multiple layers that play a part in the overall grade. Character matters, but there are always exceptions and amendments if the value becomes too great. It’s not as if Douglas only drafts choir boys. The new model is much more targeted to your team’s makeup. Douglas has a clear sense of what he’s looking for, so expect the Jets draft board to be around 150. Every prospect is graded on basic qualities like strength, speed, quickness and balance. Douglas requires his scouts to give straight letter grades — A through F — for what he calls “core traits” for every prospect. Douglas (and virtually every general manager) also ask scouts to give evaluations on position-specific traits. But how they determine the specific qualities differs. These “Critical Factors” in Douglas’ model are guidelines that vary by position created in collaboration with the coaches. It’s an inclusive process that helps scouts better understand exactly what coaches prioritize at each position. For example, pass protection is a critical factor for a tackle, but not necessarily a center. How a cornerback plays in zone and man coverage is a critical factor. There are no hard and fast rules on what the critical factors are each year. Instead, the system allows for flexibility to better meet the desired goal: Finding the best players to fit your scheme. Douglas wants a 10-12 sentence synopsis highlighting a player’s pros and cons. Scouts are required to add a bottom line section laying out A) the prospect’s specific role for the Jets, B) comparisons to any players on the Jets or around the league and/or C) players that the scout has evaluated in the past
This is cool, thanks for posting. Going to try to think in these terms as we proceed towards the draft. My initially feeling is Sewell is going to grade higher than all (like a 7.9) so maybe hard to pass up based on this sort of grading system. I guess the one thing we can’t tell is how much need factors in (what weight does it add?) to these scores.
Thanks for posting this. It still seems pretty complicated and like all ranking systems is subjective, but if we can manage to use this in our discussions maybe it will simplify things overall. Worth a shot!
I liked it because he doesn’t attach rounds to players, it’s only scores. I know we are not going to get to see complete workouts, my goal was to change OUR perception of players from where they fit in rounds and who would be a starter as the rounds went on based on Joe’s system.
That’s why I posted it, I wanted our posters to adjust how we think about these players we like. Fields, Wilson, Sewell, Etienne...etc I feel the same way as you about Sewell now based on Joe’s system. He may be a can’t pass up player. However in the system you may have high scoring players in multiple positions, at that point the letter grading system comes in as well. Are such a players that are 6.8 with a letter next to their name rated a little less? As far as need is concerned, the system makes accommodations for that as well because the player grades are meant to fit the coaches system. As an example I think of Leonard Williams, under this system he may have scored high but under core traits would he have scored high for a 3-4 DT as opposed to someone else that fit the scheme better? I’m going to think in these terms as well when thinking of players I like for Jets.
I wonder if he uses that grading system for trades within the draft and how he determines compensation for that.
That’s a great question, I have no answer for it though. The only thing I can assume from it is that the grouping of players that have a similar grade have to be on the board for him to make the trade. If you have 10 guys left with a grade number of 6.2 and you are offered a trade that could possibly see all those guys go before Jets pick, I don’t believe he makes that trade. Last year when they ended up with Mims I was surprised he traded down and still got him, however based on this system there were other players with same score as Mims that he would have been happy with, it just ended up working out that Mims was still on board.
My friend's best friend used to work in Jets scouting....wish I was in touch with him, would be great to pick his brain.
Trading down is vastly under-used by NFL teams. It always produces more picks and often does not reduce the quality of the pick, as in Mims last year. Given that the draft is extremely random in terms of who works out, who gets hurt and who fails trading down and getting more picks should be a no-brainer for most NFL teams. The Jets have typically traded up when they moved in the draft and sometimes exchanged depth for certainty in the process. Sometimes they just exchanged depth for uncertainty - spectacularly so in the Darnold trade up, The methods that Douglas displayed last year will help the Jets moving forward if he continues to use them. Getting extra picks when the other choice is to make an uncertain selection is almost always the better option. The Jets needed a quality WR prospect last year and the options were dwindling when Douglas traded down. They still got the quality WR pick that most people wanted after the trade down so the move just gave us extra opportunities to succeed.
GM also has to know when to stop trading back, Macagnan let a lot of quality players slip by his fingers in later rounds because he traded too much.
I agree. I was shocked that Mims was still there. He either correctly judged the interest in Mims from other teams or got very lucky. I'm not sure which. I didn't like the risk he took, it was too big, imo, and if he had missed getting Mims, I would have been royally pissed, and certainly wouldn't trust him or like him as much as I do. Just as one can't make BPA an idol that one worships, one can't make value an idol either. Positional need should never be ignored. One of the biggest priorities last offseason should have been helping Sam develop and thrive, and bringing our offense up to an NFL level. That should continue this offseason regardless of whom our starting QB will be in 2021. Concerns of BPA or balancing offense and defense in the draft must be thrown out the window for 2021. The scale can always be balanced by going heavy in the 2022 draft. Besides, for most of the last 10 years the draft has been defense heavy (in terms of high picks), so focusing on offense this year and in 2021 will just help balance the scales and the team. If he really likes a QB in this year's draft (2021), I hope that he won't get greedy or cute, and will just take the QB, even if would be considered reaching a little. Better to reach a little, not get ideal value for the pick, and get the QB you believe is the answer, than trade down trying to get proper value and then missing getting the QB because some team ahead of you took him.
I think this was posted in the main Jets thread at some point but it is definitely worth revisiting. The system as I understood it asks scouts to grade based on what specific traits, attributes and needs the Jets had rather than a general grading for that position. I took this mean that if, for example, you were looking at a guard who was a good road grader in the run game but not particularly mobile he might not get as high a grade as it didn't match the traits that the Jets were specifically looking for, as an example. Like everything there are pros and cons attached to it. It makes it quite difficult for us as fans to determine value based on something we don't really know though. Does Sewell meet the traits criteria? Does Fields, does Wilson? The only thing we can say at this point is the JD seems to have a preference for prototypical, strong arm QBs as opposed to smaller mobile ones - that's based on his background, the drafting of Morgan and signing of Flacco.
Exactly! That's why I don't believe in trading down after the 4th round, and would rarely do it in the 4th. By that point the talent pool is really thinned out. Greater quantity doesn't equal quality in those rounds.
I agree that trading down is under used, and would also state that trading up is over used. That said, more picks doesn't always produce as good a value. A prime example is Tuna's trading down in '97. He missed two HOF LTs and wound up taking a mediocre LB/DE and a bunch of crap. Drafts have tiers of players. Usually, there are somewhere between 3-8 blue chip prospects. Some years there may not be any. Then the 2nd tier may run from around pick #7 of the 1st round down into the 2nd round somewhere. Then there's another tier, and so forth. If you trade within a tier, then the quality of the pick shouldn't be reduced, but if one trades down from one tier to another, then the quality of the pick itself is reduced, unless all the picks received in turn payoff or one gets very lucky. I don't know whether he was very astute or very lucky in still getting Mims in the 2020 draft. Mims was the last WR in that top tier of WRs. I thought at the time that Douglas had lost his mind trading down. IMO unless he had concrete knowledge that none of the teams that were going to be above him were going to take a WR or Mims, he was stupid to do it. It was just too risky and we needed that WR too much. After Mims, I don't think there was another WR that had the traits that Douglas wanted in his players. If he makes a habit of that, we will inevitably get burned. There is a time to trade down and a time to stay put and take the player you need. I can understand why he did it, but he got greedy.
You put Darnold in the hands of a Andy Reid or a Brian Daboll from day one....who knows. You put him Darnold in a revolving door of failed HC/OC regimes that end up with the Martin&Lewis pairing of Adam Gase and Dogwell Towellins...who knows... Zack Wilson?
Great point, having a young QB go through multiple scrub HC and OC will definitely torpedo their development. The question is how many of these prospects other than TL and Sewell are elite and ready to start day one? Parsons, Chase, Fields, Rousseaut, Wilson, are these guys ready to replace any one of the guys Jets have in place and make the type of impact that a Becton had?
I believe that Parsons and Chase would definitely be day one starters and play at a higher level than those they replaced. Rousseau I don't know about. I believe that Wilson would outplay Sam. His mechanics are more solid, he just throws from 3/4 position which will put more strain on his shoulder, and should switch to an overhead delivery most of the time. I believe he may read Ds better than Sam already, and his decision making and accuracy are definitely better, as his leadership probably is as well.
Najee Harris and Etienne are day one starters for sure. Not in consideration with our first pick but at the top of the 2nd it should be discussed. If we stand Pat I can only see us taking Sewell, Rousseau or Fields. Really can’t see Chase or Wilson cracking the top 2.
