Jets over 5.5 is the Vegas favorite (43% more than the next team)

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by Brook!, May 13, 2022.

  1. PJ4Ever

    PJ4Ever Well-Known Member

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    Its obviously not just Jets fans making these bets, but national people have been on them as well.
     
  2. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    It's largely Jets fans. Yes there will be boosts from other bettors but these propositions are largely tilted by the home fan bettor.
     
  3. Aero

    Aero Well-Known Member

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    Anyone recall what the over/under was for 2017 when the Jets cleaned house to tank for the great QB draft of 2018? Thinking it was maybe 3.5. I remember analysts giving the Jets anywhere from 0-2 wins, but most Jets fans assumed we'd go over and screw ourselves out of a top pick.

    Obviously, we were only half right, but take that Vegas.
     
  4. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

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    I look at the schedule by dividing it into three tiers of opponents.



    Heavy Underdog

    Baltimore Ravens (1)

    Cincinnati Bengals (3)

    at Green Bay Packers (6)

    at Denver Broncos (7)

    Buffalo Bills (9)

    at New England Patriots (11)

    at Buffalo Bills (14)



    Clear Underdog

    Miami Dolphins (5)

    at Cleveland Browns(2)

    New England Patriots (8)

    at Minnesota Vikings (13)

    at Dolphins (18)



    Toss-up

    at Pittsburgh Steelers (4)

    Chicago Bears (12)

    Detroit Lions (15)

    Jacksonville Jaguars (16)

    at Seattle Seahawks (17)

    Of the 7 Heavy underdog games our best case scenario is likely 1-2 wins. It is likely we lose everyone. Of the 5 games where we are clear underdogs our best case scenario is 1-2 wins. My guess is we win 1 game. Of our 5 tossup games our best case scenario is we win all 5. I think it is likely we win 3. Our ceiling if everything goes perfect is 8-9 wins. My expectation is we will be a much better team than 2021, play more competitively, get better as the season goes on but only win 4-5 games. Put this team in the NFC and they should make the playoffs but with this schedule I don't see how we get more than 5 wins.


    Week 1: Baltimore Ravens L 0-1

    Week 2: at Cleveland Browns L 0-2

    Week 3: vs. Cincinnati Bengals L 0-3

    Week 4: at Pittsburgh Steelers W 1-3

    Week 5: vs. Miami Dolphins L 1-4

    Week 6: at Green Bay Packers L 1-5

    Week 7: at Denver Broncos L1-6

    Week 8: vs. New England Patriots W 2-6

    Week 9: vs. Buffalo Bills L 2-7

    Week 10: BYE

    Week 11: at New England Patriots L 2-8

    Week 12: vs. Chicago Bears W 3-8

    Week 13: at Minnesota Vikings L3-9

    Week 14: at Buffalo Bills L 3-10

    Week 15: vs. Detroit Lions L 3-11 I expect the Lions to surprise people this year.

    Week 16: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars W 4-11

    Week 17: at Seattle Seahawks L 4-12 Geno gets his revenge.

    Week 18: at Dolphins L 4-13
     
    #24 Noam, May 13, 2022
    Last edited: May 13, 2022
  5. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    If the Jets have this season Joe Douglas is going to get fired during the season. The reasoning will be that the Jets won't want his scouts under his direction doing all the scouting for the 2023 draft. They're going to need the next GM in house in December at the latest so they can stop the bleeding at the 2022 talent base and not have the problem continue into the 2023 draft - which is what will happen if the Jets fire Douglas on Bloody Monday after the season. They're going to want the new GM to have some experience working with Saleh so he can figure out if keeping Saleh is the right answer.

    People look at Douglas 6 year contract as guaranteeing him a lot more than it actually does. All it guarantees him is money and if he is headed for 17-49 the Jets are going to punt hard on the last two years of that deal. There will be no reason coming out of that 4 season span to think Joe Douglas can win with the Jets and as soon as that belief evaporates he is gone.
     
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  6. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    I haven't really seen non jets fans be optimistic about the jets in my lifetime
     
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  7. Brook!

    Brook! 2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner
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    True story, I have.

    At East Hanover there was an Applebee's close to Costco on Route 10. That was my NFL Sunday headquarters before it closed. When I did bet or when I had an important Fantasy match up I would go there to watch the games. There were occasional betters who were Vikings fans or Ravens fans etc and they would trust Jets more than I did most of the time and they would put money on Jets to cover. True story GAC. :)
     
  8. JETFUEL1580

    JETFUEL1580 Member

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    Outside of seeing yesterdays schedule I would have definitely put some money on the over, but realistically that's not the case. If this team wins 5 games it'll be a nice surprise never mind 6.
     
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  9. CotcheryFan

    CotcheryFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

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    I've read that Adam Peters is the real talent evaluator in the 49ers FO and Lynch is a figurehead GM.
     
  10. Jets79

    Jets79 Well-Known Member

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    I love that bucketing approach! I see it pretty much the same way except that I would put Pittsburgh in the clear underdog category instead of the toss up. That is a better coached team with some studs on D that will likely give Zach all he can handle. We NEVER beat them especially at Pitt…I think we’ve won like one game there in the last twenty years. We’re losing that game. I think we have a better shot to beat Cleveland if only because they are in disarray as much as anyone.

    at Seattle is tough as well..the travel, that field…hard for us to win there. The only hope is if Geno is playing because there is a good chance he throws a few picks and we maybe sneak out with a victory.

    we’re not winning at Denver or Green Bay…chalk those losses up now.

    That is just a brutal schedule…I totally agree that we could be a much better team than last year and our record wouldn’t reflect that.

    but we’re the Jets…we ALWAYS lose games we should win, and we also often win games we should have no business winning.

    I think realistically we probably win 5-7 games this year…and end the season looking better than we do at the start.
     
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  11. Cman65

    Cman65 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

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    Pretty much my thinking this year. Better roster but no quantum leap in the record. JD's record will be a dismal 11-38 at the end of '2022.
     
  12. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    I can see at least 6 wins on this schedule. Its kind of strange how people are suddenly hedging because they saw the schedule release. We won 4 games last season with a rookie QB, rookie coaches, and a similar schedule. This season we have more experience and the 17th hardest schedule. If we go 4-13 this year we didn't improve.

    JD has used 6 first round picks in 3 seasons, including 5 picks in the top 14, along with some pretty high seconds. Yet some are claiming the Jets should only win 4 games this year. If we only win 4 games, IMO, JD and the coaches should be fired.
     
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  13. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

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    Bet the under 5.5 cause they may just manage 5 wins
    OTH a 8 win season is a Hugh psychological boost for all of us
     
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  14. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

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    The Bears Lions and Jags are possible /probable wins

    Everything else hinges on Team development..a better defense and a scoring offense changes the equation

    As the Season progresses I believe the turning point has to be the Nov 20 th NE game ..if we can manage to beat the Pats who are vulnerable I believe we start. Winning a lot more games

    The opposite means a downward spiral
     
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  15. Cman65

    Cman65 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

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    If we get blown out at home against the Patriots, that would be a catastrophe for the entire franchise as all the good we gained from the draft will get flushed. At some point this season, the Jets will play a "statement game" which they'll either show potential or revert back to the SOJs.
     
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  16. PJ4Ever

    PJ4Ever Well-Known Member

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    Evidence for this? Don’t believe it at all lol
     
  17. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

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    It's his "gut feeling."
     
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