Jets over 5.5 is the Vegas favorite (43% more than the next team)

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by Brook!, May 13, 2022.

  1. Brook!

    Brook! 2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner
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    From Brian Costello's tweet. Looks like Jets are attracting a lot of people for the over 5.5 bet

     
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  2. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    What's amazing about this is that the schedule suggests the Jets will not be favored in a game until week 11 or so.

    Obviously Any Given Sunday applies but the huge over bet at this point is because the Jets draft was marketed so well by everybody.
     
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  3. dmw

    dmw Well-Known Member

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    The Jet's schedule is brutal.
     
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  4. Snatch Catch

    Snatch Catch Well-Known Member

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    Yeah. I'm very excited about this year, but yesterday when I looked it over I thought the Over/Under would be either 4.5 or 5.5.

    Hopefully some teams on the schedule aren't what we anticipate, and the Jets simultaneously take the big leap forward we're all hoping.
     
    #4 Snatch Catch, May 13, 2022
    Last edited: May 13, 2022
  5. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

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    Looking at the schedule getting 6 wins seems really hard. The under seems pretty attractive. A lot has to go right for the Jets to get 6 wins.
     
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  6. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    If everyone on every team is healthy and they all play their best based upon past-performance with equally good coaching game-plans, NYJ should be under 6 wins.

    Of course injuries, game planning, better/worse athletic performance all kinds of luck and intangibles make this bet a total coin flip.
     
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  7. sozopol

    sozopol Well-Known Member

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    I'm thinking same. If I were a betting man I'd probably be going under here. 4-5 wins seems right.
     
  8. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    It looks like Caesar's was expecting a Jets over bet, based on all the draft hype, so they raised the bar to 5.5 from 4.5 where it probably should be.

    However they failed to take into account the irrational exuberance of a fanbase long denied even the smallest of hopes. So the 5.5 didn't prevent the over bet.
     
  9. dmw

    dmw Well-Known Member

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    I think they'll be competitive and will win a few upsets, but I've never seen such a harsh schedule for a NFL team.
     
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  10. STARoSCREAM

    STARoSCREAM Well-Known Member

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    I see a lot of people on here saying under. I haven't went over the schedule closely yet, but please God not another 4 win season. We deserve some upside and hope.


    I'm going over......17-0
     
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  11. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

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    Looking at the schedule I don't think win/loss will be a good measure of our progress. Are we competitive and in games in the 4th quarter? How is the team playing at the end of the season? Are we better team at the end of the season? How will the team respond to adversity? These questions seem like a much better way to measure progress?

    It is entirely possible we could end up winning 4 games and be a much much better team thsn the 2021 team.
     
  12. K'OB

    K'OB 2021 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

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    I'll take your 1k bet right now, Sir :D
     
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  13. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    Win/loss is the only thing that counts.

    What is the next W/L in this progression: 7-9, 2-14, 4-13, 5-12?

    What is the next W/L in this progression: 7-9, 2-14, 4-13, 9-8?
     
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  14. STARoSCREAM

    STARoSCREAM Well-Known Member

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    Oh, i dont bet anymore......ive broken my thumbs too many times;)
     
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  15. LAJet

    LAJet Well-Known Member

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    I'll say the next progression is 7-10 or 8-9
     
  16. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    Those are both plausible however in the 5-12 scenario nobody would be expecting a decent record in 2023 - more like your projection if the Jets got lucky.

    In the 9-8 scenario nobody would be surprised by 11-6 and a playoff spot in 2023.
     
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  17. NYJFOREVER

    NYJFOREVER Well-Known Member

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    If every thing clicks and the Jets fire on all cylinders, they're probably a 10 win team. Obviously that won't happen.

    Realistically, 2 or 3 division wins (Please for the love of all that is holy find a way to beat New England already). The Jets can beat Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati (Again, they can beat them). I think they'll struggle greatly against Baltimore.

    After the bye, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Detroit, Seattle, Miami, and Chicago are all very winnable games for this team.

    I'll be taking the over on this team.
     
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  18. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    Since bookies aren't in the habit of giving money away, a consensus number like 5.5 wins has to be taken seriously as a realistic assessment of the Jets chances of winning. If I were a betting man, I'd probably bet the under as historically the Jets always find ways to undercut their potential. But since I'm not a betting man, I'll stick with my fan's eternal hope view and look for them to finally beat the ghosts and win 8-9 games even with this schedule.
     
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  19. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

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    Vegas was duped by the incredible Jets marketing team!
     
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  20. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    Vegas did what it always does and posted the line it thought would draw equal money on both sides of the bet. They didn't count on irrational exuberance as part of the equation.
     
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