Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. Brook!

    Brook! 2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner
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    Jay you are awesome. Thanks brother!
     
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  2. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    Another "moron" here.... but I kinda quit watching as it "fizzled" earlier as I did some work. Then a buddy called me and said the same thing. We'll see what happens. Sky here in St. Aug is eerily calm with some wild cloud bans just offshore
     
  3. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    and just like that... here comes a squall band....
     
  4. jilozzo

    jilozzo Well-Known Member

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    This is going to spell trouble for locations up and down the coast. Repeat of 2011 Irene. Full moon in effect. Hopefully this isn’t the appetizer for the main course in a few weeks.
     
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  5. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    The 11pm gives the track a 20 mile shift to the East.

    [​IMG]
     
  6. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    This year wouldn’t be complete without it
     
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  7. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    And just like that... hurricane warning issued for us 45 minutes ago.
    If it were not for the speed...which is predicted to grab this thing in the next 10 hours...I would be really concerned...this...again...models are as good as the info they are given.
    I'm really surprised the weather channel and locals were not discussing at nauseum the fact that this storm never hit...grazed ...came very close to the coast of Florida.
    Anyway...I'm sticking with this getting up to 85...and that sucks.
    Ok...will watch a ton during the day...gotta grab a good nap today because here...the true main event will be from 8 or 9 pm...until 3 am

    Rainfall amounts have been upped also by another 2 inches.
     
  8. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Hey Brook!
    Ty bud.
    You are too my friend
     
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  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    6th hurricane to affect NC in the last 10 years...insane.
    For those that live in northeast SC and southeast NC few things to consider besides wind
    1. Tornadoes....very favorable environment for development...more than usual with tropical development. This is a real fast hit...the thunderstorm activity will be thru the roof. The line between cooler air to the west feeding into warm above average ocean temps... within the system will be common to the NE side of the eye.
    2. When you hear 4 to 6 inches of rain and locally higher...it sounds impressive but not unheard of
    Besides on and off showers and squalls during the day...the main event will be between 4 and 6 hours...and 2" an hour RAIN will be commonplace...flash flooding big time.
    3. Really don't care what the experts say...but a continuing or bump in strengthening just before landfall would not surprise me in the least...wind shear will be at it's lowest point...and the ocean temps are very warm.
     
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  10. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    While I know it's re-strengthening, This storm is so lopsided that barring something radical, if you're on the west side, it's a minor event. I had more rain in a 30min T-storm a few days ago than I've had in the past 24hrs.... hopefully that wasnt a jinx. good luck.
     
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  11. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    btw... tell these TV people to shut-up about "Dangerous rip currents"!!

    NO SHIT, there 12' seas and 35mph winds.... I had enough and turned off the TV
     
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  12. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Moving a little faster than they thought. Yesterday it was supposed to be over us at 2 am, now at 2 am it shows it 50-60 miles north.
     
  13. Fred Mertz

    Fred Mertz Active Member

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    Hopefully that helps with the flooding.
     
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  14. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, looks like it’s going between 20-22 mph. Pretty fast for a tropical system. Hopefully that does help, probably increases the tornado risk though
     
  15. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    SB and type1 make a good read with speed. If you end up in the dry slot of this...because of that speed .,..very little time to wrap things around.
    Amazingly if you go by the nws...that will be east of the eye...yet east of the eye will have strongest winds
    Perfect example is me...they have downed potential rains to 3 to 5...yet hurricane winds ....we are in the sweet spot.
    My main watch from here on is the final 100 to 150 miles before landfall ....does it remain this chopped up yet formidable mess....or does it get it's shit together for the first time in many days.
    This could be the ugliest system that has lasted this long ...I can ever remember.
     
  16. Fred Mertz

    Fred Mertz Active Member

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    i know we have people all over the US, but as Jets fans most of us either live or came form the NY/NJ area, so that's what we're waiting on. I don't think we're gonna have any real feel for what's gonna happen up here until after Isaias makes landfall.
    Looks like tomorrow AM is when it's gonna start and luckily for me that's dead low tide. I'm not sure how long it's gonna hang around, but I'm hoping not a full 6 hours to get the storm surge going.
     
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  17. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Hey FM...great to see you....honest to god i was just going to come on and try to explain that.
    There is a similarity to Sandy in one regard. In fact its very common to tropical systems once they make landfall and travel north.
    Many ask...wait a minute...it should be much weaker up north!!
    Well while the wind will diminish...not as much as usual because of the speed...what saved florida ends up being a curse to the north.
    That front pushing through the midwest and heading to the coast helped steer the storm up the coast...good news...as is the reason for the huge increase in speed. Bad news is it also fuels the system..in a really big way. Tremendous amounts of rain will fall where the initial interaction occcurs. From VA to parts of Jersey. Amazing rainfall will occur in DC. In two bursts...the second butst will be pretty insane. Same up north. Once the eye gets within 50 miles of you...the rain north and west of the eye will be intense.
    All due to the interaction with a cold front.
    Sandy was similiar...which allowed places well inland to get clobbered.
    Hope that makes sense.
     
  18. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    And low tide will help you as will the speed. Blink of an eye...its gone. But a hell of a blink.
     
  19. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Started raining pretty good here about 30 mins ago. Track shifted just a bit to the east again. Picking up speed too. This hurricane is definetly drunk.
     
  20. Joe Willie White Shoes

    Joe Willie White Shoes Well-Known Member

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    Hey jaywayne12 - great to hear from you! So what do you think this path and speed mean for Morris County - the worst of both worlds? Rain and wind? No significant weakening as it travels over land from the Carolinas on up? I guess I should bring in the patio furniture and garage the cars even though I'm 40 miles inland. I expected rain with a little wind while it hugged the coast. Now the predicted rainfall amounts are dropping from 4-6 to 2-4 but wind is picking up from 20-25 to 45-50.
     

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