Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. Drew

    Drew Active Member

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    Please tell me Christmas vacation is starting early..
     
  2. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Oh yeah...Vermont will get fresh snow in the next week....they have 3 shots..and all should provide great stuff.
     
  3. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Checking models again now..and yeah Drew..its possible vacations might start early.

    The fly in the ointment would be the rain snow line and where that sets up..remember..3 different storms before the 20th.

    First on Sunday..meh.

    Let me check things out. BRB.
     
  4. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    On Sunday morning, possible light snow early in the morning. Then there is a possibility of a slightly larger storm Monday night that could bring 1 to 3 inches.

    From a very knowledgeable guy on the web...I cut it a bit short but the bottom line..his thinking.....

    Then, things get very interesting with the a possible nor'easter that would start Wednesday during the day and end Thursday evening. This storm could still be either rain or snow in our area. I will say this, the areas that get snow with this Nor'easter may very well experience blizzard conditions with snowfall amounts of 1-2 feet, and winds of 40+mph.

    Now...he is strictly going off the Euro model but if you truly went off the Euro model, it would be rain for most. What he is seeing with this storm...and I agree..is that intense storms like this create their own dynamics...and with that...create their own cold air. So while the models say rain and low 40's...that dynamic is not picked up until the storm gets into the higher resolution models time frame..which its not.

    So you turn on your local weather guy and he says its going to rain. A weaker storm would produce rain....and much stronger storm..which I believe will happen...will produce snow for everyone WEST of I 95. A monster storm might just bring snow all the way to the coast. ?????

    This is also tough to play out because two weaker storms will hit our area a few days before..and each changes the conditions..and the pattern. So the models might not fully get this storm until Saturday or Sunday.

    REGARDLESS..ITS THERE...so lets follow what might be the first huge storm of the WINTER season.
     
  5. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    keep us updated jay. my wedding is the 22nd here in sc. some family are driving,some flying from LI on the 20th. wish the storm could wait til the 24th so they could be stranded here for christmas
     
  6. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Will do type..flying out from the Island? JFK? LaGuardia?

    HEY TYPE!! Good luck buddy!! Best of wishes my friend. I promise to keep you updated..hopefully L.I. gets the rain its forecasted to get right now..but I will follow it for you.
     
  7. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Now this is what I was talking about last week. This is from the NWS...not dumb Jay.

    Forget about their predicted highs and lows..forget about the chances or percentages...you will never see anything above 50% this far off..just see the train.

    Now part of this train will be light...but will grow stronger towards the middle of next week. Here it is:

    Saturday Night A chance of rain between 10pm and 4am, then a chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Sunday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

    Sunday Night A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Monday A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Monday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

    Tuesday A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

    Tuesday Night A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Wednesday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


    Doesnt sound like much...but that is the start of the storms that will hit the area.
     
  8. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Thanks man! I move from LI 7 years ago thinking i would end up with a southern belle,and end up meeting a girl from dix hills LI. lol.

    not sure which airport,i'll have to ask them.
     
  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    The only reason I ask about the airport is the further east you go..the better. I doubt they are flying out of Newark but they might be. That has a better chance of being a problem but hey..its so far off we might just end up with a rain storm.

    Very funny...you move down there and end up with another L.I. girl..good for you man..really good for you. Super congrats and Im sure one way or another...it will all work out. Just give me the dates of the people that are driving and I will tell you if its a better idea for those to leave a day early etc.
     
  10. Murrell2878

    Murrell2878 Lets go JETS!
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    What is west of I 95? Inner NJ and PA? Will this affect me in Eastern CT?
     
  11. Jetzz

    Jetzz Active Member

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    Nor'easter?? Snow??? Next Wed or Thur?? Hopefully it avoids Manchester, NH... I'm flying out on the 20th in the morning. Not sure how far north those weather models extend.
     
  12. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    The latest models are running even warmer...there will 100 percent be a storm but its where the rain snow line set up..and if the latest models..which seem to agree, are right? Rain snow line will be well west of E. Conn. And well west of I95..perhaps the nj/pa border.
     
  13. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    That might be all snow up there but it will probably be over by the 20th..will have a better grip by this Saturday of Sunday.

    Overall the models have come in warmer...sooooo....not looking like a white Christmas BY ME. FOR SOME...YES.
     
  14. Jetzz

    Jetzz Active Member

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    I'm knocking on some wood... hopefully things will be business as usual by then. No white Christmas for me either, unless that nor'easter wants to follow me to Houston! :metal:
     
  15. Murrell2878

    Murrell2878 Lets go JETS!
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    Thanks Jay!
     
  16. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    No probs M..Anytime.

    And now even worse news...the models are even WARMER...hmmm...this sounds like last year. Funny thing is the NWS for my area just issued a HAZ weather outlook for the storm next Wednesday and after checking all the models...I have no idea what they see or are talking about.

    Will continue to keep an eye out by TYPE..your wedding travel plans for family are looking just FINE.
     
  17. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Jay what is a HAZ warning ?
     
  18. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Sorry CBG....Should have explained that. The National Weather Service put out a Hazardous Weather Outlook for North Jersey that states the following:

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
    CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

    .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

    THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL STORM EARLY TO MID NEXT
    WEEK. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
    SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT THE THREAT EXISTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN OR
    WINTRY PRECIPITATION...STRONG WIND...AND COASTAL FLOODING EVENT.

    Now...from the models I have been viewing for the past couple days...and just to show Im not a homer for storms but just tell the truth about what i see and not wishcast for storms...I dont see it anymore. I have just seen a warmer trend and a storm that has actually become much more tamer.

    That is until about 5 minutes ago when I just checked the lastest models whiched started to retreat back to a possible storm.

    Heres the problem...you have two weaker storms before the main event. We have a storm that comes through Sat night that might bring some light mix turning to rain...then another one thats coming through Monday/Monday night that should be rain.

    Because of everything that is happening before the main event...any change in course of the storms before the biggy change the track of the biggy.

    Very hard to pinpoint. Thats why I got a bit negative about the main event. Lets just keep tracking it because if all of the pieces of the puzzle come together, it could be a very very big storm.

    Models also showing another storm and very cold temps around Christmas Eve which would be really cool. Will keep you updated...as usual!!
     
  19. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Jay,,,,,,carry on young man carry on :wink:
     
  20. jonnyd

    jonnyd 2007 TGG.com Funniest Poster Award Winner

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    Im hoping the Jay that was around last winter returns. Sorry to you and Cman and others who actually like snow :)
     

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