Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. Barry the Baptist

    Barry the Baptist Hello son, would you like a lolly?
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    Oh yeah... I've been in the desert 15 years. Spent 2 years in Phoenix and the last 13 in Vegas (officially) although I've worked jobs in Colorado and Idaho.
     
  2. Jetzz

    Jetzz Active Member

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    Thanks Jay! Little soon to be worrying I guess... the way weather goes up here it can be anything at anytime. Yesterday I went in to work it was almost 60 degrees, but by the time I left it felt like it was 40. Hard to know what we are going to have day to day.
     
  3. JetsVilma28

    JetsVilma28 Well-Known Member

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  4. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Im going to go on record right now and say this is going to be a real screwed up weather season to call.

    Its happened before. No answers why. Every so often a season comes along where models see storms...lose them...and then they return about 5 days before the storm hits.

    Now models seeing storms and then losing them? That happens as often as a Sanchez turnover.

    Reason I say this is that the storm for the 10th? is back in the picture..not a bomber of a storm...yet.

    Love that old guy..sounds like my dad..blizzards and walking 10 miles to school.
     
  5. JetsVilma28

    JetsVilma28 Well-Known Member

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    Yup. 10 miles to school, and up hill both ways.
     
  6. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Jay,,,,cold enough for snow on the 10th ? Luv the updates an ps you are allowed to be wrong once in a while,,,hell the guys on tv are consistently mistaken :)
     
  7. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Not cold enough for the 10th cbg...no go. Its going to do something outside..but not snow.

    With that said...Im still really liking whats going to happen after the 15th..and REALLY liking the 18 to the 23rd with not one..but possibly two shots.

    The 18th is looking very very good right now. GFS has shown it 3 runs in a row and that is rare.

    BUT..REMEMBER WHAT I SAID EARLIER. The models are having a rough start to this season so far..even the Euro (excluding Sandy). Once again..if the 18th storm is going to happen...it has to still be on the models come Sunday.

    EDIT: FRIGGIN MODELS. Sticking with rain for the 10th/11th..but latest model showed some cold air with mixing....so....will up date. I highly doubt it. But the models have run colder and colder...bottom line is that its not a huge storm..but...
     
    #2507 jaywayne12, Dec 7, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2012
  8. Hobbes3259

    Hobbes3259 Well-Known Member

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    Living so close to you, I fucking cringe when his thread bumps.
     
  9. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    THANKS Jay----enjoy the thread and updates lots :beer:
     
  10. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    I have a good amount of family flying out of LI on the 19th and 20th to come visit. Hopefully nothing screws that up
     
  11. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Hope so too Type.

    With all the models saying something is brewing in that time period, I have mentioned it before.

    This is NOT going to be a good year for nailing future stuff down. Since Sandy, the long term (7 to 14 days out) models have been horrible.

    So yeah, Im bringing stuff up that is showing up in the long term...but with very little confidence.

    This winter will have at least 3 major storms of over 10 inches..no doubt...but I believe for the most part, knowing which ones will do that will not be such a sure thing until about 4 days in advanced.

    Will keep you updated for the time frame. That time frame will be pretty solid by next Wednesday...about 5 days before.
     
  12. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Its all about pattern changes and finally...finally..after almost 2 years...a change in the pattern is about to happen in the next 7 to 10 days...just in time for Christmas I believe...and beyond.

    Now thats not great news for the posters that talked about relatives and traveling but right now, it looks like next Wednesday could be the start of a very significant storm.

    The big question is snow or rain..and its a big question depending on the track. Bottom line is that its showing up on the models and that storm whether its rain or snow will be the beginning of a pattern change that the NYC metro area hasnt seen in a while.

    This Sunday, we could see a mixed event or snow changing to rain but around the 19th winter kicks in...regardless of snow or rain. That storm will change the pattern and allow cold air in while storms ride up the east coast for the next month. Well inland areas should see snow and the big question is does the I95 corridor see a major snow storm.

    That should clear up towards the weekend.

    EDIT: HERE is the American model and what its showing for that time frame...a major storm just off the coast...fantasy? Perhaps..we shalls see...here is the link:

    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=178833
     
    #2512 jaywayne12, Dec 10, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2012
  13. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    And latest models I just looked at show that this storm this Sunday might be a bit more than I mentioned above..again..rain or snow or a mix with sleet? Not sure. But its much larger than shown in the past.

    In a nutshell..we are watching for a storm on or around the 16th...and then another around the 19th.

    Going beyond that we are also watching the time frame of the 23rd/24th.
     
    #2513 jaywayne12, Dec 10, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2012
  14. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Keep em coming Jay,,,,,,!
     
  15. deathstar

    deathstar Well-Known Member

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    It was so fucking hot today...84 degrees on December 10!

    Wtf is that!
     
  16. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    i would still take that over snow any day of the week...but thats not the friggin case.

    Tonite I will be really checking out all the possible storms but after a quick glance...the 18th went from lets say 40 percent to 50 percent today. Just a run of POSSIBLE storms from the 15th until a few days after Christmas.

    15th
    18th *
    22nd
    26th

    * indicates most probable at this time.

    15th looks the lightest but could be a major icing issue with those WELL inland.
     
  17. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Pretty much staying the same for the 15th...rain in metro with possible mixing far west nj and NE PA....again..not a monster.

    The 18th just went up to 60% chance for a major storm...but again...rain or snow? both? starts out as rain ends as snow? But its showing a very big storm.
     
  18. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Storm next Wednesday is looking pretty significant...huge.
     
  19. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    Jay

    Can you elaborate? How huge?

    If snow, what can we expect for Morris County? :)
     
  20. bhav2k1

    bhav2k1 Member

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    please tell me there will be fresh snow for a trip to vermont
     

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