Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. Satan

    Satan Well-Known Member

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    got to 110f today and summer starts on saturday
     
  2. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    If I had my way...that would be my weather every day of the year (with a great AC system everywhere of course)

    The weather weenies are about to commit suicide because there are no longer any SNOW storms showing up from now until the 15th of December.

    In fact we enter a warm up by next week and that may last a bit longer than modeled.

    Still, the middle of December gets a bit juicy...will keep an eye on the models everyday.
     
  3. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    I know we have discussed this before in this room..about how different models are better than others..and how the European Model USUALLY destroys the American Model..which is pretty sad.

    Here is a great article talking about the models and how they did with Sandy...and also how the Euro had Sandy pegged more than a week before:

    U.S. forecast's late arrival stirs weather tempest
    Dan Vergano, USA TODAY Share


    Weather models converged well to predict Hurricane Sandy's arrival, but meteorologists complained of problems with U.S. forecasting ability shown up by a European model.




    European models are made on more powerful computers and run on higher-resolution models
    Also, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is under fire for satellite cost overruns

    4:42PM EDT October 30. 2012 - A European forecast that closely predicted Hurricane Sandy's onslaught days ahead of U.S. and other models is raising complaints in the meteorological community.

    The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on Oct. 23 warned that Hurricane Sandy would hit the East Coast on Monday, days ahead of other major hurricane models, which mostly saw the storm heading out into the Atlantic.

    Weather models take data from satellites, weather balloons and other observations and plug them into atmospheric physics equations that computers use to march ahead in time to make storm track forecasts.

    Although weather models converged remarkably well by the weekend to predict Hurricane Sandy's arrival with great accuracy, meteorologists complained of weaknesses in U.S. forecasting capability that were exposed by the better performance of the European model.

    "It's embarrassing, we should have the best forecasts on the planet. And it has an economic cost," says meteorologist Cliff Mass of the University of Washington in Seattle. Hurricane Sandy's losses are now estimated at $10 billion by catastrophe-estimating firm EQECAT, in Oakland, with more than 7 million people without power in mid-Atlantic states in the storm's aftermath.

    The European center's prediction was made on more powerful computers, and ran on higher-resolution models of the weather that simulated the future over longer time periods, beyond eight days, than the one employed by the federal National Weather Service. The European model is widely seen as the best at predicting hurricanes, Mass and others say, as demonstrated with Hurricane Isaac in late August.

    "The U.S. does not lead the world; we are not No. 1 in weather forecasting, I'm very sorry to say that," says AccuWeather's Mike Smith, author of Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather. "But the bottom line is that forecasters nailed this storm days ahead of its arrival. The people behind Europe's model should receive a Nobel Prize in physics, this was that powerful a moment in weather science."

    "In general, there are reasons to believe the European model does perform better," says meteorologist Chris Davis of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. Forecasters typically rely on collections, or ensembles, of model forecasts to make storm warnings, weighing the strengths and weaknesses of each one, Davis added. That makes decisions tricky and reliant on human expertise. "This was an unusual storm, with very sensitive conditions, so perhaps in this case a model with (higher-resolution) saw things developing sooner than others."

    The U.S. Global Forecast System model run by the U.S. National Weather Service switches to its highest-resolution in forecasts only when looking seven days ahead, unlike the European one, which looks ahead further.

    "All the models have their strength and weaknesses," said Louis Uccellini, head of the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. He acknowledged that the European model made its East Coast prediction ahead of the U.S. and United Kingdom's meteorological service. He noted the European model was off in some of its predictions, as well, regarding where it would make landfall and low-pressure measures.

    Uccellini pointed to improvements coming to the National Weather Service, which is installing more powerful computers to run fine-grained weather models around August 2013. He does say, however, that extending forecasts beyond the eight-day ones produced by Europe's model is still "up for debate" at the National Weather Service.

    Mass criticized the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which runs the weather service, for its handling of weather satellites. The Government Accountability Office this summer noted cost overruns and failures in NOAA satellite programs designed to replace a polar weather orbiter that was killed because of cost overruns by the Obama administration in 2010. The real problem, though, is that other models use satellite data more effectively, Mass said.

    While he criticizes the National Weather Service as slow-moving, Smith notes that the $991 million agency has suffered budget cuts in the past two years, with more cuts proposed this year by the White House and Congress. "Does it make any sense to cut the weather forecasting service's budget given how much weather affects the economy?" he asks.

    Uccellini says that National Weather Service models have begun a move to use more satellite data in the past year. "We don't shy away from criticism or what people recommend," he says. "We shouldn't lose sight of the predictions that we nailed, for a record storm surge, record low-pressure and record snowfall that our forecasters called correctly based on how they read the models."
    Advertisement
    Dan Vergano
     
    #2483 jaywayne12, Nov 29, 2012
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2012
  4. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Good stuff,,,,,,I noticed that a couple of our local weather guys were saying the exact thing,,,I think it was Lonnie Quinn that said it Also about what the European model was saying about Sandy,,,,he was saying how many models were all over the place but the euro model had us taking a bad hit,,,,,that was days before the storm,,,kep this stuff coming Jay,,,,ps it looks real warm next week
     
  5. jilozzo

    jilozzo Well-Known Member

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    good news jay - the last thing we need here on the south shore of long island is a winter storm.

    though come january - bring em on.
     
  6. jilozzo

    jilozzo Well-Known Member

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    interesting stuff - as always - modern science tied to economics and politics.

    i am sure supporters of the current president and administration are not aware of that little budget morsel.

    geez go tell that to the good folks on the jersey shore, staten island, brooklyn, and long island......
     
  7. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    And yeah Jil..love the storms but wouldnt be too pissed if they hold off until everyone is a bit more settled at the coastal locations.
     
    #2487 jaywayne12, Nov 30, 2012
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2012
  8. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Lets look at this way..no Euro model and just the Americana models and many more lives would have been lost.

    The GFS American model sees this with less than 36 to 48 hours before landfall while the Euro sees this more than 7 days away. Yeah..thats a real good cut to make.

    Yeah CBG..major warmup on Monday and maybe some records will be broken on Tuesday...60's for sure...but still sticking with some interest in storm around the 10-13th time frame.

    And yeah Jil..love the storms but wouldnt be too pissed if they hold off until everyone is a bit more settled at the coastal locations.
     
  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Sorry for double post...meant to edit.
     
  10. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Keep an eye out for a week from today. Around now, there is a possible storm that will hit the area from Sunday night until Tuesday morning. December 10th and beyond was always a time frame we were watching for and that seems to be the kick off to our winter.

    Snow..rain......will work out as we get to the middle of this week.

    Other than that..very warm Monday and Tuesday and then gets colder..perhaps a mix of light rain,snow Friday night but leaning towards rain.
     
  11. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Thanx again Jay,,,keep us posted,,,,,,I am sure u will
     
  12. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    and here starts this winter...gonna have to check the trends...next Mondays storm looks to be a norther new england special and is off..and because of that...will wait a few days before posting the week that follows to confirm..lol.
     
  13. Barry the Baptist

    Barry the Baptist Hello son, would you like a lolly?
    Moderator

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    You get that 4 months a year in Phoenix... after living both the Mojave and Sonran Desert I would say Sonoran all the way. Mojave weather is overrated and it's really an ugly desert. The Sonoran you get some nice vegetation at least.
     
  14. Cman68

    Cman68 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

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    I used to live in Sierra Vista, AZ. The "high" desert definetly has its benefits as it never got super hot or super cold and it even snowed perhaps once a year there. In Tucson, on Mt. Lemon, they get 4 seasons. Kinda like Flagstaff and the "4 corners".
     
  15. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Stay on top of it Jay and keep us posted,,,,,,local weather guys say zilch about it in their long range forecast,,,,they say chance of a shower and warm Monday,,,,,I am glad we have the tgg weather channel :beer:
     
  16. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Man BP..never knew you were out that way. Very nice.

    Love tracking snow storms..love it. Love the lead up..love the outbreak..love when the worst is closing in.

    Once the storm pulls away? My whole family..my boys..my wife..love to ski. Im the guy at the bottom of the mountain sitting by the fire with a cold beer or a glass of red wine.

    Anyway...yes...sticking the middle of December...the GFS (AMERICAN MODEL) has had a storm for around the 16th now for 5 straight runs..and has trended colder. Now we know the GFS and its track record...but its good at picking up future storms..its placement sucks.

    We shall see but Im still betting on, at minimum, nice size storm around that time frame and then another one right around Christmas.
     
  17. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Jay what happened to the possible storm on the 10th ,,,,,no shot? Otherwise the 16th it is,,,,,will anxiously await updates :breakdance:
     
  18. Jetzz

    Jetzz Active Member

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    Probably still a little too far out to tell much, but I'm flying on the 20th of Dec out of NH. Any idea how weather is shaping up that week?
     
  19. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah CBG..I had it posted a few days ago...the 10th turned out to be just a cold front coming through. It will get really warm around the 8th..with some records broken..highs in the 60's. That storm died out.

    The 15th on or around still is high on the radar. It continues to show up as a big nor'easter that is still way off...and will need a little help with temps..showing in the 40's....but I believe the models will catch on to the cold air that should be in place.

    JETZZ...Models show the 15th..and then the 19th..but once again...fantasy land..way off. 7 days is when you start to see if models are on to something. Just like the storm on the 10th...disappeared around the 3rd.

    If the models still show the 15th storm this Friday night..we might be on to something.
     
  20. xmscott

    xmscott Well-Known Member

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    Its cold outside.

    That is all.
     

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