So Jarvis jones was diagnosed with Spinal Stenosis. To start with a few links on it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spinal_stenosis http://espn.go.com/college-football...s-jones-long-journey-back-field-espn-magazine ..... This final one tells about a few others who have had the condition to some extent or another. http://seahawksdraftblog.com/how-will-spinal-stenosis-impact-jarvis-jones-draft-stock So what does this mean for Jones and the Jets draft? Well despite his production, combine, and everything else he brings he may fall, perhaps out of the top ten, perhaps down to where the jets draft. The risk? A shortened career, perhaps only lasting a few to five years, perhaps upwards of ten. With the conflicting diagnosis, the first specialist clearing and the USC doctors telling him to retire, it comes down to each teams medical staff. Is the risk of a short productive few years worth the high investment? Is it possible that some teams remove him from their board all together? How do you feel as jet fans to the possibility of tHe best 34 OLB in the draft falling to us because of this? It would be typical Jets, a move that both excites and scares the hell out of me.
My father had surgery for this condition about 3 years ago. He said the worst part of SS was the numbness he would get in his feet. Said he felt like he was paralyzed at times. Now, that is from a 65 year old man not a 23 year old who may have a higher pain threshold. Make no mistake though, this is something that is a major red flag. I would stay away personally.
stay away. we are not in a position to take any risksin this draft. we need sure things. or as close as one can be,not high risk high reward guys
I'd take him in a heart-beat. So what if he only gives us 6 yrs at a high level... Wilson has given us none so far! The thing is, look at the players mentioned in the article... they all had pretty long careers.
All but cooper manning, who never stepped foot on to an NFL feild. Marcus McNeil had a very good first 3 years and quickly declined. Many On TGG.com were upset after the first year of him and D'Brick in the league because we didn't draft the probowl rookie in round one and failed again. Fast forward to now and the decision look genius. As much as our font office is maligned, sometimes they do truly do know more than us lol. The film on Jones is great. The history of this is worrysome to me.
at the end of the day, jarvis jones is an absolute stud. if he could be this years von miller, i wouldn't even think twice about drafting him
He's not really on Millers level though... As for my opinion, I look at it like this- Are we in rebuild mode or are we only a few pieces away from being a legit playoff team? If we are in rebuild mode and it would take this team a few years to be respectable again, then we would be wasting away those few years Jarvis Jones has. If we are only a few pieces away, Jones could be one of those pieces and we are back in contention. Imo, this team is no where near a playoff team (even though we actually have a shot at making the playoffs). Our offense is horrendous, and makes games hard to watch. Sanchez is not the answer and this is the key difference in rebuild vs retool. There's no Andrew Luck or RG3 this year so we can forget about a young QB stepping in like them two. Every QB has their flaws in this class and in order for this team to commit to developing a new QB, their needs to be some change in coaching and the FO. The way I see it, we still need a franchise QB, #1 WR, #1 RB, RG, #2 TE and probably a RT and LG on offense. On defense we need 2 OLB's at the very least and probably a FS. Thats way too many holes to fill in one, even two off seasons. To add to that, we need a new scouting department, QB Coach and GM who may bring in his own HC. Thats a lot of turnover... If he's looking at a 5 year career max, then I say pass. If the doctors say he can play into his 30's then I say pull the trigger.
If he falls to us, we HAVE to take a shot, pretty much no matter where we pick, IMO. We're not a team that is 2-3 safe picks away from being a true contender. We have a good amount of needs that is not going to be addressed in one draft unless we have an all time draft class. To counter that, we need the best talent we can get at one or two positions, that help masks the other positions enough that we can fill them in a later year. If Jones becomes the monster that many predict he will and helps with the pass rush, we can try and get away with a less talented safety, with our cover CBs. The pass rush would force Qbs to get rid of the ball faster, and thus reduce the responsibility of the safety position. I personally think, we're a team that has to take the risks, because we're not a complete team. We need to go for the 3 run home run, because we're down 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th. Safe picks won't help us, because it takes us up only a few notches. Saying all that, one of the teams ahead of us will forgo their concern about his neck and pick him, because he is going to dominate on tape and also at the combine.
You said half of it exactly right, we have so many holes that wont be filled in one or two years... So if Jones is only expected to have a 5 year career (obviously not sure, just hypothetical) why would we take a risk on someone that is only going to provide help short term, since you said we have a long term problem. It would be like signing a veteran OLB like for instance Cliff Avril. Say he has 5 good years left in him, similarly to Jones, why should we take the risk if we are in rebuild mode and have to worry about the future? We arent in win now mode and sadly I dont see us winning a SB within the next 3-4 years, so whats the point in picking a player who can only service this team for a short amount of time... Look at Marcus McNiell. Yeah, he helped the Chargers his short career with them, but now he's no longer playing and the Chargers are terrible... And he was picked while the Chargers were a contender. We are not right now... Obviously this is a different story if doctors say he can have an 8+ year career. If he's expected to only play for 5 or so years, I'd take a guy like Chance Warmack or one of the A&M Tackles who would be a staple on the OL for the next 10 years. D'Brick and Mangold werent risky picks (like McNiell was) and they are two of the best players on the roster.
I think for sustained greatness, we need a great QB, which just isn't available in this draft. There could be some projects like Manuel, Bray, Jones, but none that are going to come in and dominate like the duo this year. So without that stud Qb, I think we have to go with guys that make our team exceptional at certain positions even if it's short term. I think someone like Avril would work great, if the pay was the rookie wage scale. But if we can get someone like Jones on the rookie scale for those 5 years, I think it's still worth it. McNiel was great, and to be honest, if the Chargers had better coaching, they should have won atleast one SB during that run for 3 years. They were a team loaded with talent that fell short, IMO, purely on coaching. Without the lack of QB, and I don't see us getting a stud QB in the next 3 years of Jets season (anyone picked this year, needs 1, if not 2 years to develop) and anyone picked after this year, needs atleast 1, unless Bridgewater blows up next year) so we're going to have to win with an average to below average QB. That means we need to be exceptional in other areas. If we turn out to be just good, then we're sort of stuck in that mediocre range that we always seem to find ourselves in. The other problem is that, if say after 5 years, Jones can't play anymore, it still works out similar to that of say if we get someone else that turns out to be good, but not great with that pick. After those 5 years, we're going to have to pay them big money if they are good. I'd rather go Jones with the rookie scale, and then when that contracts runs through, instead of extending him, taking that money to get us a player elsewhere, instead of getting someone that could possibly be inferior, and then being able to resign him after the rookie contract runs through. I don't think we will go into full rebuild mode, unless the coaching staff is canned. I think we're going to try and "reload". I see us taking a Qb this year, with either our second or third pick, and see if we can develop him for the 2014-15 season after Sanchez moves on. If at that point, we can have a defense that presumably has Revis, Wilkerson, Coples, Demario, and Jones, then we can then focus on adding offense around the QB once we know what style of play suits the QB. Obviously this is all presuming that Jones can atleast play 5 years. If the USC doctors told him to retire, his playing time could be a lot shorter, which complicates things much more. I think the breakeven number is 4 years. If there is relative doubt by your doctors that he won't make 4 years, then pass. But at 4+, I think the risk is just worth it. If we had a great QB, I would go exactly the opposite and try to attain as much safe quality players as possible.
You dont think building around that developmental QB (even though he's on the bench) is the way to go...? There's no point in trying to raise a new QB if the offense he walks into is similar to this. In this scenario where the doctors say Jones is very likely to have a shortened career, you dont think its smart to build an elite OL, or an elite skill group so that developmental QB isnt thrown into a situation like Sanchez?
Ideally, yes, if we were starting from scratch. But to start from scratch, we'd have to factor in a coaching change, which I'm not sure is going to happen right now. Maybe a year from now, but that's a moot point for the Jones draft. I think our offensive line is in better shape now and for the future than our defensive line. I'm not saying ignore it, but that we can wait for it. I think Jones' talent and what he will add to our team is more of a need for us, than the OL, right now, for next year and the future. If we can get a good pass rush, we can atleast return one side of the equation to elite. And then focus in on offense in the next draft, and have the developmental QB now start playing with still a good line, and decent options on offense. Even in 2 years, Mangold and Fergusen should both be on the line. If we can add a high OL pick to that, it should be better off. In a perfect world, obviously, I'd love to get the stud QB, and just build around him. But right now, our need is a stud defensive guy that can get to the QB. That resets our defense, especially if Coples gets more run. By the time, the Qb develops, we should have Kerley, a more developed Hill, and maybe Powell or another RB still on the team that has talent. We erred in developing Sanchez, because we took someone that played in an open system where he had talent mismatches everywhere, and turned him into a QB that plays a closed system. I don't think he didn't develop because there was a lack of talent around on the team, he's just not that good. The only time he legitimately looked like a good QB was when we were down, late, and it was close, and we went to an open system out of the shotgun. When Sanchez first started out, we did have a good OL, so it wasn't lack of options. Sanchez doesn't read defenses. He checks down too slow. I personally think he's not really all that smart when it comes to football. Now take out Rex, and lets say Chip Kelly comes in. Then throw everything I said out, and we'll go OL, because his style of play demands more from the OL. And his QB won't be Mark Sanchez, so we'd be starting the development on the run, or have a veteran. If we are going with say EJ Manuel, I say pick the defensive guy, even with a shorter career arch. With how players get paid to resign after their rookie contract runs out, I don't think the difference between signing a guy off the FA wire and extending someone creates enough space to take the less talented guy to begin with. As long as there is a certain degree of guarantee that this guy can atleast last the said 5 years. Pick the OL guy, the year after, and let him develop while playing with the QB, instead of playing for say Sanchez next year, and then someone else with a slightly different style the year after. It also helps, that we'd know what type of players fit this developmental QB's style. Is he a guy that can scramble like Manuel? More of an NFL pocket guy like Barkley (not saying that's happening, just hypothetical)? If we can cater to the QB and his strengths, instead of the QB catering to our strengths, we have a better shot at developing the QB, IMO. The wildcard in this ofcourse is Jones' medical. Neck is a very sensitive area, so if the doctors aren't sure he's going play those 5 years, then I pass. But if I can get reasonable assurance that he can last 5 years, the risk is worth it.
