I know, duh. But its been REALLY hard in the last decade. 28 QB's have been selected in the first round since 2006. All of these guys selected were picked with the hopes they would carry their team to a Super Bowl victory. So how did they do? 26 of the 28 QB's selected have failed. Only Flacco and Newton have been to the Super Bowl and only Flacco has won one. Most of these QB's have only been to the playoffs a few times, and half of these QB's were actual busts. Either no longer starters or not even in the league. QB's in Italics are still starting QB for the team that drafted them. 12 guys. Look at this list and cry: 2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinert, Jay Cutler (Bust, Bust, and a frustrating bust if your a Bears fan.) 2007: Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn (Bust, Bust) 2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco: (Banner year! Flacco has his ring but has been mediocre ever since. Ryan is good but hasn't gotten there yet.) 2009: Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freemen (Stafford is good but how much joy has he brought Lions fans? Bust, Bust) 2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow: (Sam is still playing, but would anyone call him a success? Big Jesus Bust) 2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blane Gabbert, Christian Ponder: (Cam has had the most playoff success of any QB drafted this decade. Going to the Super Bowl and multiple playoffs. But he had a mediocre season and with all the hits he's taken the Panthers fanbase is questioning if he will be able to remain successful. Bust, Bust, Bust) 2012: Luck, RG3, Tannehill, Weedon: (Luck is a franchise QB, but the Colts have been to (1? 2?) playoff games in 5 years. Luck is now 27 and in the prime of his career, but the Colts are going nowhere fast. Bust, Bust and Bust.) 2013: EJ Manuel: (Bust. Then Geno in the second round which was a big stupid jawbreaking Bust.) 2014: Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater: (Bust, Big Bust, Bust with a possible career ending injury.) 2015: Winston, Mariota. (Two of the highest rated prospects to come out in years. Cant miss QB's. This year, Winston was mediocre and the Bucs are improving but still a ways off. Mariota had better stats but is injured and the Titans missed the playoffs as well. Too soon to say where these guys will be but they are now in year three with no playoffs and no one is saying these teams are among the best.) 2016: Goff, Wentz, Lynch: Too early to say, but it looks like Bust,OK,TBD In fact, with Russell Wilson winning one and being in two Super Bowls, the third round is more likely to hit on a Superbowl QB than the first round. But still not very likely. Basically if you didn't have Brady, the Mannings, Rogers, or Big Ben you more often than not were shit out of luck. 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls were won by those 5 QB's. And even if you did get to the promised land (Flacco & the Ravens/Brees & the Saints) you were only there for a brief time and are back to being miserable fans like the rest of us. Anyway, this post was written in the hopes that my fellow Jet fans would be relieved to know that most teams that have tried to find their QB savior have failed. Its not just the Jets.
QB is getting over-picked at this point. If the 2004 draft was a do-over the first 3 picks would have been Eli, Rivers, Big Ben. Nobody else would have gotten a look until the top QB's were off the board. People would have traded up pre-draft to make that happen. That sounds like real valuation there but if the 2006 draft was a re-do it would have been Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler 1,2,3. Jared Goff was one of the worst #1 pick QB's in NFL history. Wentz is up there as a bad #2 pick and I actually kind of like the guy and think he will pan out.
Yup. This thread really warms my heart. We are never getting a franchise QB and will never win another Super Bowl. Thanks OP!
The OP is deceptive considering that only 8 QBs have won SBs in the past decade, and 6 of them (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Peyton, and Eli), 4 of which were first rounders, were drafted before 2006. So if you're looking for QBs drafted in the past decade who have won SBs, your only options are Flacco and Wilson. The best takeaway is that 5/8 QBs to win SBs in the past decade were 1st rounders. Also, since football is a team game, it would be better to look at the success/bust ratio of the QBs in the OP. 11 of the 29 QBs are italicized, which doesn't look good, but the success rate is much worse for QBs drafted outside the 1st round.
The problem is that the NFL has become so much of a passing league, and college is still mostly run-first, and seems to have become even more run oriented as of late. This has created a widening gap between the two levels of football, which has made adjustment to the NFL much more difficult. It's tough to take a guy whose job in college was pretty much to be a running back who also passes occasionally, and tell him that he needs to be able to stand in the pocket and throw 25-30 times a game. So it's very rare to have a guy who is ready to be an NFL QB. You kinda have to rely on being lucky and randomly landing that guy who can learn the NFL system.
Not looking to deceive! Just that we Jet fans spend a lot of time talking about being in pergatory until we land that franchise guy and it's been damn near impossible to do for most any team employing that template. Franchises in the last 10 years that have been drafting QB's in the first round in the hopes of getting their Brady or Manning have overwhelmingly failed. Even the Ravens with Flacco can't really say they have a franchise guy as he's been mediocre for years. But they did get one trophy which is something.
Ha! No the point I was getting at is the NFL is on the back end of a golden era of QB play. 5 guys dominate the league and bring their teams to the playoffs year after year. But these guys are all on or approaching the downside of their careers and after that it seems like no one has an advantage. Other than Wilson there are a lot of question marks at the position. No QB is consistently good. Even the good ones like Luck have had minimal success.
Lol by OP I meant original post, not original poster. Not implying you were being deceptive. Yeah, the odds are stacked against us, especially since we're the Jets, but we can always hope for a miracle.
A larger percentage of the top QBs in the league were drafted in the first round. Whether or not they're generational talent is another thing, but you have a higher chance of getting a QB who will be in the top half of the league in passing in the first round.
If the goal is to win a Super Bowl, the model of selecting a first round QB broke down over a decade ago. The correct model is to have drafted or trade for a 1st round QB entering the NFL before the 2006 class.
I also think these draft stats of first round busts highlights the fact that college quarterbacks are not being developed for pro style play which seems to be an increasingly bad trend.
Correct. Also it seems that if a QB is going to hit it will be by year 3 of their career. Eli and Rodgers won their first SB in year 3 of starting both at age 27. Ben won his first at age 23 and his last one at age 26. Brady won 3 of his 4 rings before he was 27. Peyton is the outlier getting his first ring at age 30 but the Colts were banging at the door for years. Point being, the window is closing fast on guys like Luck who is 27. And there is no one on the horizon that is aged 23-27 that is challenging the top 5 guys.
So by your definition - Marino, Tarkenton, Fouts were failures? The statement "26 out of 28 failed" is ridiculous -- so many of them have just scratched the surface and are in the infancy of their careers while many others have been productive quality starters. If Matt Ryan doesn't win a Superbowl he is not a failure and is still a franchise QB. Stafford, Luck, Ryan are all franchise QBs Tannehill could probably be considered one and Mariotta and Winston from the looks of it will as well. Your best chance of landing one is still grabbing the top 1 or 2 Qbs in the draft in the first round (in the right year).
Whatever you say guy... Marino, Tarkenton and Fouts had great careers. But because they didn't win a Super Bowl they will always be behind the guys that did. Do you think Bears fans, Lions fans, Chargers or Falcons fans are comforted by having a franchise QB but no titles? Do you celebrate Sanchez getting the Jets to two consecutive AFCC or do you remain unsatisfied they didn't go all the way? It may be unfair but it's the standard we rate teams and player careers. The 80's Bills team was one of the best ever but are treated almost as a bad joke because they never won a Super Bowl. Maybe you think you will get there eventually with a Matt Ryan. I'll be happy if he does because I like him and want to see a new winner. But as I said in a later post 4 of the top 5 guys had their rings before they were 27 years old so the odds don't favor Ryan or Luck or Stafford. I'd almost rather be a fan of a team with no franchise QB than one that has one but never got the other pieces in place to win the title.
Ha! Yes it is! But then what the hell are all these teams doing? That's a lot of brain power and money chasing after the QB. Why do they think it's the secret sauce? Maybe it's not. Maybe the way to beat these guys is ground and pound and a great defense. It's been tried and failed before but the Jets got close and the Ravens beat the Giants by that model.
IMO the best way to win a SB is to get an elite QB. It's just so hard to win a SB (unless you're NE) because there are 31 other teams going for the same thing. So no matter what you do, you're probably going to fail.
Agreed, you need an elite QB. That's why 8 of the last 10 were won by elite guys and Brees and Wilson are no slouches either. But it's an interesting conversation about whether having all the rule changes protecting the QB and making the league pass friendly really serves the best interests of the league at large. It's become a bit of a mugs game for the other 27 teams. This year all 4 of the active QB's from the elite 5 are in the playoffs. If Brady or Rodgers even get looked at the wrong way the refs throw flags. The Ravens were flagged 15 yards on a hit on Roethlisberger that even Steeler fans say was a BS call. If I was the commissioner or one of the other owners I'd be looking to make the league more competitive. You don't want these guys hurt but maybe make it more difficult on passing offenses, maybe by throwing less PI flags or flagging WR's for scraping or boxing out defenders. I don't know the answer.
