It's almost that time... 2021 NFL and College Football Betting Thread

Discussion in 'Virtual Vegas' started by Jonathan_Vilma, Aug 16, 2021.

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  1. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    I had some success last year with runningback catch over/unders. They're usually very low. Kareem Hunt hit a bunch of them and the guys that aren't receiving backs still get catches even though they don't gain a lot of yards which makes it easier.
     
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  2. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    QB rushing yards is always a good one to hit. I'm not talking about the running QBs either, its better for the guys who dont rush much sometimes.

    Kirk Cousins for example could have a line as low as 9 yards. One scramble out of the pocket and you could win your bet
     
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  3. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Yep I've hit those too. All you need is one scramble against man coverage and you're golden. The only thing that sucks is that kneels are subtracted from the rushing yards which gets tricky.

    Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Cousins as you mentioned are good guys to look at with those single digit rushing yards
     
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  4. DefenseWinsChampionships

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    1.) That's not true because in 2009 we were big underdogs @ +5000 odds (top 20+ underdog) and we came close AFCCG and in 2006 we were +10,000 odds and made the playoffs etc. When the Jets win it all it'll be as big time underdogs.

    2.) That's not true either. It's just called hedging my bets because I believe the Jets can win our division, make the playoffs, Coach Saleh COY, Zach Wilson ROY and C.J. Mosley CPOY; the only bet I'm not confident in is Jets winning the SB (but I'll try until the day I die) but I love my 5 other prop bets (and once manning the Playoffs anything is possible in the NFL).
     
  5. DefenseWinsChampionships

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    I dont personally take QB rushing yards prop bets but I remember last year on TGG I was doing crazy research and was on FIRE went 3-0 on predicting QB rushing yards.

    I think it's kind of easy.

    A.) Look at how many rushing yards a QB averages.

    B.) How many QB rushing yards a Defense allows on average.

    C.) Go with what the statistics are showing you.

    Come week 8/9 once I have enough data I think I'll try a couple.
     
  6. GreenWhiteandGold

    GreenWhiteandGold Well-Known Member

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    Thats how the bookies set their lines (this side of the pond anyway), they are lazy as sin and dont have enough knowledge of the sport to set correct lines so just take the averages. Some times in the right circumstances those averages are very much the wrong line
     
  7. NYJFOREVER

    NYJFOREVER Well-Known Member

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    QB rushing yards is one of my favorite props. I remember making some easy money on Allen and Russell Wilson last season.
     
  8. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    Its not easy. Its never easy
     
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  9. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    I liked the over Deion Sanders State vs UAB at 47.5, but my book didn't offer it. Now it's up to 50 so far.

    UAB has a QB who can sling the ball and usually these low O/U are good takes early in the year.
     
  10. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    Sam Darnold is decent too.
     
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  11. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    the books never have FBS football. It's stupid
     
  12. Ralebird

    Ralebird Well-Known Member

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    That may be your opinion but the biggest factor in determining the odds on things like early Super Bowl wins is the most recent W-L record. If the Jets go 8-9 you're not getting +10,000 the following season and if they go 11-6 you won't even get +3,000. You even show that with your +5,000 number from 2009.

    And, yeah, hedging your bets is going away from the Jets to find your payday. That's why you mentioned five teams who were not the Jets where you're putting your serious money.

    No sense in even debating this any longer now - I'm sure that in the spirit of full disclosure that in January you'll be back to show us the results, whatever they prove to be.
     
  13. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    Seems Jacksonville State has a Clemson Transfer QB who is looking good. As Kiss says, he's worth a deuce.

    Jacksonville State
    +16.5
    (-115)
    Point Spread
    UAB @ Jacksonville State
    9/1/21, 7:30 PM
     
  14. DefenseWinsChampionships

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    I just got back from our local game room and put two bets down on Jacksonville State.

    1.) Jacksonville State +16.5 $20 for $36 in return (-120).

    2.) Jacksonville State Money Line (ML) $20 for $135 in return (+575).

    As long as they cover the +16.5 I'll be chasing $135 for only $4.00.

    ▪︎ I love their chances to cover and I like their chances to win out right because last year they went 10-3 and one of their loses came to FSU. I remember watching the game and asking myself, who is this team? They played us really good and up agaisnt an ACC team they refused to quit.

    They jumped out on us early too 14-0 and 21-14 @ the half and 2nd half FSU dominated but nonetheless I'm riding with JAX St. tonight.
     
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  15. GreenWhiteandGold

    GreenWhiteandGold Well-Known Member

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    Kid is absolutely useless
     
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  16. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    lol--really man--hype train on full throttle with nothing in the tank.
     
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  17. DefenseWinsChampionships

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    I got tricked out of my 40 real quick :eek:.

    31-0 note to myself (and others) let's never bet on two small schools like this again.

    I was 1-0 here in 2021 with UCLA. Feeling good feeling great.

    And now 0-1 because of Jacksonville State? Idiot move on my behalf.

    Because you know that I know that it's a bad gambling sign when 'DWC' isn't name dropping 20 exciting players with a list of 1-20 ala 1.) Zach Wilson, #2 Mekhi Becton, #3 Quinnen Williams, #5 C.J. Mosley #9 Alijah Vera-Tucker, #17 Bryce Hall and cant forget #4 Elijah Moore and all the way to 20.) Hamsah Nasirildeen (ok he's #8 to be specific).

    Note to self. Lost the bet before it started. Didn't even know any names.

    In closing i live in Florida and never heard of this school before other than two times last year vs FSU and then recently noticed them on our week 2 schedule again so figured hey they'd be at least good enough +16.5 vs. UAB hah those FL kids stunk had told myself while watching no wonder why it's looking like 99% aren't playing for FSU/MIA/FL/UCF/USF because they are HS players and I bet my 40 on Jax St.? Really?

    #JustShakingOffTheOffseasonRust.
     
  18. Ralebird

    Ralebird Well-Known Member

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    What's the worst loss? The forty bucks or the three hours watching that crap?
     
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  19. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    UCF -4 (-130 bought down) tonight. Books are giving cheap odds on buying down from 6.5 which unfortunately means they don't believe that much in UCF. That's a tough road game from Idaho though and Boise State has Bachmeier back and healthy but that stadium should be wild.

    Generous that UCF didn't start this game at -7. Lots of respect given to the blue when UCF has a dark horse Heisman candidate.
     
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  20. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    Wish I saw ur post 39 minutes ago when you posted it when I was locking in bets.

    My pick tonight is Tennessee -37.5. Its a lot for Tennessee but my wife is a Bowling Green alum and we have season tix and last year they were the worst D1 team I've ever seen. Hard to think they got better enough in one offseason to even keep it close at Tennessee
     
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