I know, one game at a time here. But just assessing the schedule, and especially that one game everyone says is at the very least our one absolute L, upon closer review, it does not to me look like a nightmare match up. Granted, the Jets have to show up and play consistent 3 phase football. And Granted, Peyton Manning. However. Look closer at Indy's wins, outside of week 3 - 7 including a bye, where Indy had thoroughly dominating wins with an overall points differential of +88: Indy 31 Ariz 10 Sea 17 Indy 34 Indy 31 Tenn 9 Bye Indy 42 STL 6. In all 7 other contests, the point differential is only +21. More interesting is when we break those games down and see that each one was a one score game, and only one was Indy the victor by a TD or more (in this case 8 pts). Indy beat: Jax by 2 pts -- 14-12 Mia by 4 pts -- 27-23 SF by 4 pts -- 18-14 Hou by 3 pts -- 20-17 NE by 1 pt -- 35-34 Bal by 2 pts -- 17-15 Hou by 8 pts -- 35-27 So, we see that Indy has been able to pull out wins by the wire. It's been Peyton Manning and the Stingy Colts Defense. The Colts will be facing a team in the Jets that matches up well against them. Two key areas that I think could bode well in the analysis if it is to favor the Jets are in the Jets ability to play "Good Defense and Run the Ball". Indy has the #1 Passing offense in the NFL. The Jets have the #1 Passing defense in the NFL. The Jets have the #1 Rushing Offense in the NFL. The Colts have only a slightly above average run defense, giving up 4.2 yds a carry and 108 yards/game at 14th in the NFL. We are #1 in defense against the pass using several measures. The League's Elite Passing Offenses go in this order: 1. Indy 2. New England 3. Houston 4. New Orleans We've faced 3 of the top 4, validating our passing rankings. When you look at the Passing defenses Indy has played against it looks like this: Jax #26 Mia #23 Arz #29 Sea #25 Ten #31 StL #22 SF #28 Hou #14 NE #10 Bal #12 Against Houston, NE and Baltimore, the Colts were beatable, and Manning at times was human. Indianapolis is 31st in the league in running the ball with 87.6 yds/g and only 3.9 yds/c. Perhaps they don't have to run the ball with Peyton shredding defenses, but they cannot run the rock like the Saints (4.7 ypc), and they do not run it with consistency like the Pats - Indy is 29th in the league at 22.6 c/g. Joe Addai hasn't gone over 75 yds this year in a game. This is a game that if we get there winning in TB and against ATL, and the Jets bring their A-game, playing ball-control offense (the Colts defense is good), we can win. Granted, Darelle Revis and Thomas Jones/Shonn Greene/Jets OL. I can't wait for these matchups. Just a heads up with some interesting research.
I agree with you. I think the Jets can beat anybody in the NFL, including the Colts. On the other hand, we can also lose to anyone in the NFL, as we've proven.
It's more like Payton will be resting for the playoffs since if the Colts reach 14-0 they'll have homefield throughout the playoffs.
I agree on the Colts being beatable in week 16. First of all they may well have clinched the #1 seed by then. If they do this they'll be carefully resting their banged up players in the game, although probably not Manning at that point. Secondly the game will be in the dome and so weather won't be an issue. Obviously Manning is a huge advantage over Sanchez, but the advantage would be magnified even more if the game was played in bad weather because Manning would be able to limit the mistakes a lot more than Sanchez would. Thirdly the Revis/Wayne matchup is probably going to go in our favor given the performance of Revis so far this season. That leaves the strong safety on Dallas Clark as Manning's potential breakout. So far this season this is how the opposing TE's have performed against the Jets: Hou - Owen Daniels, 4 catches for 44 yards NE - Ben Watson, 3 catches for 23 yards Ten - Alge Crumpler, 4 catches for 41 yards NO - Jeremy Shockey, 4 catches for 34 yards Mia - Anthony Fasono, 4 catches for 38 yards, 1 TD Buf - Shawn Nelson, 2 catches for 34 yards Oak - Zach Miller, 2 catches for 15 yards Mia - Fasano/Hayos, 4 catches for 36 yards, 1 TD Jax - Marcedes Lewis, 2 catches for 58 yards NE - shutout for TE's Car - Dante Rosario, 4 catches for 62 yards Buf - Jonathan Stupar, 1 catch for 1 yard For the season the Jets have allowed opposing TE's to catch 34 balls for 363 yards and 2 TD's. That would seem to suggest that while the opposing TE is not a pressing concern on defense the Jets will need to pay some extra attention to Clark to keep Manning from having a field day there. I'm cautiously optimistic on this game assuming Sanchez can play.
Outstanding post Darth Vader. If only we had taken care of business earlier in the season this game would have much more significance. If we can make it to Indy undefeated this thread should be bumped.
The only problem with your assessment is that none of the above TE are Dallas Clark.. He is basically a slot receiver.. I'm VERY worried about what he can potentially do especially as Wes Welker single handedly raped our pass defense.. Taking out reggie wayne is huge.. but you can't just assume since we shut down Stupar and Miller... that Clark is no big concern
A great look inside the numbers Darth - thanks for putting in the work. Let's hope the game is relevant because it looks like we have a good shot against the Colts! With any luck they'll be thinking about their first-round bye and the Jets will be insanely pumped up at the chance to make it into the playoffs. Insanity always beats complacency.
I'm worried about Sanchez vs. Mathis/Freeney, we really need to get our run established early, we can't force Sanchez to win it.
Whether the Colts beat us comes down to one simple factor: Do they want to win? Cuz if they want to win, they will, whether Peyton is starting or Jim Sorgi or JP Loseman or whoever else.
You my friend have won the immunity challenge, if MS throws one int and they get points off of it, might as well turn off the TV and do chores around the house, this in turn will give BS the excuse he is looking for to throw the ball some more, then another pick, they score some more, and now we have throw, well you get the cycle.
Why are we looking at the Colts game? We have to take care of Atlanta and Cinci as well to make the playoffs. Hell, the Indy game may be the easiest of the three especially if they lose one game and have already clinched home field.
bc if we can win the Colts game we can win any game, and we'd deserve the playoffs. That aside, it is a very interesting matchup in itself exclusive of context. Lots of good comments guys. The point about Dallas Clark and the Colts pass rush are especially good. With Clark, you'd hope that we have plenty of a framework to work with by studying the NE game. Also, we'll have Keller who can simulate Clark in practice, and finally, we'll have Anthony Gonzalez coming to town the week prior to provide a big test. But I agree, that is a big matchup. You might even have Revis matched up on Clark at times with disguised coverages, and Lito on Wayne.
if the colts are still undefeated when we come to that game and if weve kept it up and the game has relevance we beat them, if the colts have already been toppled by somebody i think itll be different.
part of me would like to see the Colts still undefeated when the JETS face them. To be the best you have to beat the best, and there are so many variables to allow the JETS into the playoffs. Ruining the Colts perfect season would be a nice consolation prize. :jets:
