In Depth Playoff Scenerio Analysis - If We Win in Seattle but Lose against Miami

I'm a bit confused, so someone correct me if I'm wrong.

So, if the Jets win this week, Pats and Miami loses this week. Then Miami, Pats win and Jets lose in week 17.

10-6 (4-2 divisoin record) (2-2 against each other) - JETS
10-6 (4-2 divisoin record) (2-2 against each other) - DOLPHINS
10-6 (4-2 division record) (2-2 against each other) - PATS

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.


Basically would go to step 3 - Common Games.

Jets - SD, Arizona, Cincy, Oak, KC, Buf, Buf, St. Louis, Ten, Den, SF, Sea

Jets - 6-4

Dolphins - Arizona, SD, Houston, Balt, Buf, Buf, Den, Sea, Oak, St Louis, SF, KC

Dolphins - 8-2

Pats - KC, SF, SD, Den, St. Louis, Indy, Buf, Buf, Pitt, Sea, Oak, Arizona

Pats - 8-2

So we're screwed in that scenerio it appears.

Then lets say that NE beats Dolphins in tie breakers. And lets say Baltimore loses next two weeks and there is a WC spot open. Then we lose that too because the 3rd tiebreaker is games in common.

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.


BOTTOM LINE:

As far as I can see, there is NO way we can get in if we lose to Miami and NE wins against Buffalo (even if Baltimore loses their last two games) - that even includes Miami and NE losing to KC and Arizona. But if you notice, we can lose against Seattle and still get in multiple ways but will need help from NE or Baltimore then. Also, there is actually a way that we can get into the playoffs without beating Miami (NE and Baltimore losing out).

BUT HERE ARE OUR PATHS TO PLAYOFFS:

1) If we win out, we're in and win the division.

2) If we lose to Seattle and win against Miami (10-6) and NE loses against Buffalo (10-6), we win the division because of best division record.

3) If we lose to Seattle and win against Miami (10-6) and NE loses against Arizona and Buffalo (9-7), we win the division.

4) If we lose to Seattle and win against Miami (10-6) and NE wins out (11-5), division is lost BUT we can get in via the Wild Card if Baltimore (9-7) loses their last two games - We would beat Miami via division tiebreaker.

5) If we win in Seattle, lose to Miami (10-6) and Baltimore loses out (9-7). Miami wins division. BUT if NE loses Buffalo and win against Arizona (finish 10-6), we get the Wild Card - we would have a better division record (4-2 v. 3-3).

Five possible ways to get in but easiest path is: WIN OUT, lol

But LETS GO ARIZONA (against Pats) and LETS GO DALLAS (against Baltimore) in week 16. And the Bills game is a MUST win for the Pats or they are pretty much done - I'm stunned that we can get in even if we lose to Miami. NE losing in Buffalo is not unthinkable and Baltimore losing to Dallas and Jax is not impossible.

Really next weeks game if Miami wins or loses against KC doesn't really matter?

Can someone correct me if I'm wrong?

 

Yes your right. But in terms of our playoff picture it really has zero effect as far as I can see.

But if Arizona and Dallas can pull off wins against the Pats and Ravens, that would be huge for us. Then Miami does not necessarily become a "must win" - we would need them to both lose again the following week though.

 

LOL, there is 20 mins of my life I will never get back.

Oh well, at least its here in a central spot if anyone needs to refer to it. I was using this link, some of my calculations are wrong some how, I'll edit my post.