Heroes and Zeros - Top 5 1995-2005 Do Jets fans put too much stock in having a Top 5 selection in this years draft? Here is a test, listed below are the top 5 selections from 1995 to 2005. Hypothetically, if these players were available to be drafted on April 29th who would you still consider worthy of a top 5 pick based on what they have contributed in their career (Hero) or if they would be a good choice if selected later or they were a bust (Zero). My point is the draft is a roll of the dice, the best football players do not come right out of the box (and no doubt there are many who do) with a lot of zeros after their first paycheck, if the Jets trade down it is not the end of the world and is fine with me as long as we receive appropriate compensation. So how many heroes of the 55 named below would be on your list for this years 2006 draft and worthy of a top five pick? How many Pro Bowlers or future Hall of Famers? 1995 1 1 Ki-Jana Carter Bengals RB Penn State 2 2 Tony Boselli Jaguars OT USC 3 3 Steve McNair Oilers QB Alcorn State 4 4 Michael Westbrook Redskins WR Colorado 5 5 Kerry Collins Panthers QB Penn State 1996 1 1 Keyshawn Johnson Jets WR USC 2 2 Kevin Hardy Jaguars LB Illinois 3 3 Simeon Rice Cardinals DE Illinois 4 4 Jonathan Ogden Ravens OT UCLA 5 5 Cedric Jones Giants DE Oklahoma 1997 1 1 Orlando Pace Rams OT Ohio State 2 2 Darrell Russell Raiders DT USC 3 3 Shawn Springs Seahawks DB Ohio State 4 4 Peter Boulware Ravens DE Florida State 5 5 Bryant Westbrook Lions DB Texas 1998 1 1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee 2 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State 3 3 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State 4 4 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan 5 5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State 1999 1 1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky 2 2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse 3 3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon 4 4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami 5 5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas 2000 1 1 Courtney Brown Browns DE Penn State 2 2 LaVar Arrington Redskins LB Penn State 3 3 Chris Samuels Redskins OT Alabama 4 4 Peter Warrick Bengals WR Florida State 5 5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee 2001 1 1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech 2 2 Leonard Davis Cardinals OT Texas 3 3 Gerard Warren Browns DT Florida 4 4 Justin Smith Bengals DE Missouri 5 5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB TCU 2002 1 1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State 2 2 Julius Peppers Panthers DE North Carolina 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions QB Oregon 4 4 Mike Williams Bills OT Texas 5 5 Quentin Jamar Chargers CB Texas 2003 1 1 Carson Palmer Bengals QB USC 2 2 Charles Rogers Lions WR Michigan State 3 3 Andre Johnson Texans WR Miami 4 4 Dewayne Robertson Jets DT Kentucky 5 5 Terance Newman Cowboys CB Kansas State 2004 1 1 Eli Manning Chargers QB Mississippi 2 2 Robert Gallery Raiders OT Iowa 3 3 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals WR Pittsburgh 4 4 Phillip Rivers Giants QB North Carolina State 5 5 Sean Taylor Redskins S Miami 2005 1 San Francisco Alex Smith QB Utah 2 Miami Ronnie Brown RB Auburn 3 Cleveland Braylon Edwards WR Michigan 4 Chicago Cedric Benson RB Texas 5 Tampa Bay Carnell Williams RB Auburn
I counted between 28 and 31 players who really worked out for where they were drafted... An average of 2-3 per year out of the top 5... Not that bad... Some of those picks are AWFUL though..
I got 22-25, but you'd expect a higher percentage given that teams have a free choice of almost every player and scout them all extensively.
It's not a bad bunch but not what you would expect out of the top 5 every year for the last 11 years.
Its a good test but you should have done something like 1990 through 2002. Hard to judge a draft till they have had 3 years in the league so you can judge their body of work. What I get out of something like this ..... it is almost not worth drafting a top 5 player .... as you have about a 50% chance of shelling out big dollars (top 5 dollars) for an average player or worse ... a complete bust. I love the draft though ... and am anxious to see what goes down on draft day.
The problem with this post is not what was presented, it is what was left off. We all realized that only about 50% of the top 5 players actually turn out to be top players. But what is missing is the number of top 5-10 players that are impact players, or the number from 10-32. These are the questions that need to be asked. Just for the fun of it. If the odds of a probowl player from the draft look like the chart below, what is the value of a top 5 pick. Top 5 - 50% 6 - 20 - 35% 21 - 32 - 30% Clearly the top 5 pick is worth it. But if the odds of anyone in the first round were 50% it wouldn't be.
guys like Leonard Davis and Mike Williams are the reason why no one can say Brick is the "safe pick." the Cardinals and Bills took OL, which they badly needed, and the selections weren't worth it. had they chosen impact players, game-changers, then the boom/bust risk is worth gambling on because at least you know there's a chance of getting a guy who's going to change the game; rather than a guy who may or may not be a great blocker (which you can always find outside the top 5-10 picks). cheers
Yeah, stock as in Stock Market. An inexact science at best. I said this before that I detest the idea of computer technology getting involved with the draft much as it has (blecchh). It's still not much better than a crap shoot even when it comes to Horse Racing on that same score. Luck and random chaos seem to be just as important. Enjoyable post.
It looked like a heathy 60% of good projections. But that is not to say 40% sucked. Some players ahve played really well, but maybe not top 5 well (ex. Kerry Collins)
Another interesting thought would be to take the top 5 or 10 players from each draft (say 1990 to 2000) and see where they were drafted. How many of each year's top 5 picks are considered to be in the top 5 or 10 from all of the players chosen that year. Not something I have the ability or time to do but I think it would be interesting.
I like this idea, but it should be ten players. You may find that 10% of the top players were drafted in the second day, 50% in the second and third and 40% in the first. But if you had a small sampling of 50 people, it would not be statistically relevant. 100 people would give a much better idea.
Except in horse racing they dope the horses to skew the odds! Enjoyable reply to you (you always make me laugh) and all above...I don't post a lot, (thank someone) but when the inspiration hits me I never know...or you may never care! It is just another post from the peanut gallery!!! Peace and Rush for the exits!!!:beer: :rofl: :up:
