Here's How Tough It Is To REALLY Find A Franchise QB

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by JetsKickAss, Dec 10, 2020.

  1. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    Take a look at all the "franchise" QB's that are struggling in Year 2 or Year 3. That's why I was not as down on Sam as others....and why if we have a shot at Trevor (and we better lose the last 4 games !) we have to take him:

    Ravens/Lamar Jackson: Stats down bigtime from a year ago, has trouble hitting receivers outside the numbers, "one-trick pony" references as rushing yards are down bigtime. History of running QB's is 2-3 good years and the rest blah.

    Cardinals/Kyler Murray: If he goes down in AZ, so does the coach and GM. He's been very ordinary both up to and after the Hail Murray 3 weeks ago. Stats are very pedestrian. Lots of blocked passes at line of scrimmage.

    Bears/Mitch Trubiskey: Probably headed for divorce, we knew this after last year.

    Eagles/Carson Wentz: A shocker, he's now the backup to Jalen Hurts. He has 1 spectacular year and a couple of other "good" ones and you wonder if the Eagles just assumed the spectaular one would be the norm. Clearly, it hasn't.

    Rams/Jared Goff: When he's good, he can get you to a Super Bowl. When he's bad, he can barely beat the Jets or Jags. A prototype for many QB's today: their ceiling is fine....it's the FLOOR that is too low, when they play bad games.

    Now, some of these guys are NOT failures...but they haven't established that they can survive in the NFL for 10 years as a QB who can be more than a game manager.
    Some of them are "tweeners" -- not busts, but not franchise QB's. That's almost worse than being a bust: at least with a bust, you cut ties and move on. With a tweener, you keep "hoping" he'll take the next step and it can be Fool's Gold.

    I also wouldn't be fooled by the overall QB ratings. The absolute numbers are ridiculous....I believe 40 years ago when I first started looking at the stats only 1 QB completed over 60% of his passes and 1 or 2 QB's had ratings over 100. You have alot of QB's that I don't believe teams are married to -- Derek Carr/Raiders, Kirk Cousins/Vikings -- who have great games with ratings over 120 and then follow it up with crap games in the 40 or 50 area.

    It's the FLOOR that is the key. The truly great QB's will not have any bad games, maybe 1 against really great defense. That's what makes Mahomes so great....Watson.....Russell Wilson.

    Anyway, I think alot of teams will be looking at new QB's this year and next...and that bodes well for the Jets as I can see a team wanting Sam as a backup next year ready to move up in case of injury or mediocre performance.
     
  2. zace

    zace Well-Known Member

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    Ive been saying thia for a long time. Dont draft to strictly potential, thats what many bad teams do. Draft a guy who can do now and can get better. That goes for any position. The floor is the key.

    We walk on the floor all the time but you need a ladder to get to the ceiling often.

    Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
     
  3. MoWilkBeast

    MoWilkBeast Well-Known Member

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    Apply that to Darnold's class though. Allen's floor was probably way lower than the others. He had a high ceiling if (as it looks like he is doing) he improved his accuracy and ability to read the D, but a really low floor.
     
  4. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Good post. I agree with all except the green text. Even great QBs are human and they have bad days/bad games. They aren't as bad as other QBs bad games perhaps, but they are not immune to having bad days.
     
  5. Quinnenthebeast

    Quinnenthebeast Well-Known Member

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    I mean if you’re talking about a QB who will be around 10+ years, win at least one championship and get us to the playoffs most years then yeah that’s kinda rare. But the Jets have had like mostly bottom of the barrel QB play with the exception of Fitz’s first year and McCown for the past decade. We haven’t even see anything even approaching consistently average or above average QB play since probably Pennington.
     
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  6. Pepsiguy5

    Pepsiguy5 Well-Known Member

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    I think the floor/ceiling thing has some subtle but critical differences depending on if your referring to "prospects" or established pro players with some time/track record. Josh Allen is a great example of a prospect who was a legit chance to be a complete failure at the NFL level but that is pretty much old news now. While Goff is a really good example of an established pro who can be throwing the prettiest passes ever seen one week and kind of have a clunker or two the next month. A little more to the volatility side of the spectrum than maybe the Rams would like.
     
  7. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    Good post! And it highlights the mistake of "Tanking for ..... (fill in the latest hot college QB)". There are no guarantees that whomever is dubbed "can't miss" won't actually miss. The college and pro games are really that much different.

    That said, I'm not saying that you should pass up a truly generational talent, but these are few and far between as you noted, and not always universally identified - Mahomes being a case in point. But I believe you can identify them if you don't focus on raw numbers and instead look more closely at the intangibles as I posted in another thread the other day (if I can remember where, I'll copy and re-paste here). But things like an innate understanding of the game and how to play it; a "never say die" attitude; an above average (NFL average, not college) arm, ideally a superior arm; the ability to make plays under pressure consistently. There are some others, but these of course would be on top of exceptional physical attributes like size, strength, mobility, etc..
     
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  8. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    Okay, here's the first of several posts I made in the Boozer32's Entire Post Season... thread:

    FWIW
     
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  9. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

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    I think 70% of it is luck. Think Tom Brady. 10% excellent coaching Pittsburg Steelers, Andy Reid. 20% is the stars align Drew Brees and Sean Payton and John Madden and Ken Stabler. The 86 Bears. You had the right coach and one of the greatest defenses ever. I wish there was a blueprint for sustained winning. We sure know what constant losing feels like. The Jets will get it wrong again this offseason because the owners are just not involved with this team. They see it as an investment. The Steelers, Giants, Cowboys, Pats see it as their life's blood. The Johnson's should sell the team.
     
  10. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    The coach needs to compliment the QB and adjust the offence to the strengths of their players. Same on D.. systems don’t work anymore.. it’s about complementary football now.
     
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  11. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    Try telling that to Gase.:mad:
     
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  12. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    The '86 Bears??? We're talking about QBs. Jim McMahon was not a great QB. I've got a better and stronger arm at 66 than he ever had. Probably half of this forum does as well.
     
  13. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    Thanks NCJ...what really stands out to me is that today you will have lots of teams moving on from QB's with QB Ratings that 40 years ago would have gotten you a Pro Bowl berth or even All-Pro status.

    I think the interesting thing with young QBs is this 5th-year option thing. It seems like you have to commit Big $$$ to your drafted QB after Year 3 -- or you are saying we're not signing you (barring a miracle) and you're cutting bait. I think this is too short a time frame -- I remember Phil Simms not developing until Year 6 (and being a backup and losing his job in Year 5). Basically, if you don't commit to that 5th year option -- and more likely, an extension -- you're saying SAYONARRA after Year 4. And you're saying that BEFORE Year 4 even commences...you're saying it during Year 3. That's how everything has gotten shortened which I don't like (it's like the clock is ticking the minute you draft a QB -- which is why you can't waste Year 1 like we did with Sam with Bowles/MacCagnan, let alone Year 2 with Gase/MacCaganan/Douglas).

    I think 3 years is probably enough time to see if you will be a superstar QB....but NOT enough time to see if you can be a QB that will not PREVENT you from winning a Super Bowl. You MIGHT help the team get there and MAYBE you help them win it -- but no guarantte. Nothing like Pat Mahomes, who was mediocre for 3 1/2 quarters and then turned into Superman the last 8 minutes and won it for the Chiefs.

    If QB performance is a Bell Curve determined by your overeall talent, than even an "average" talent can expect to have 1 or 2 (maybe 3) GREAT years......5 or 6 or 7 or 8 OK years.....and 3-4 sub-par or terrible years. Can you win a Super Bowl with that expected performance? Yeah, if thing break right for you in the 1 or 2 years you have your best shot. But if the overall talent of that Bell Curve is pushed far to the right -- then you have 10-12 GREAT years and maybe just 2-3 OK years and maybe 1-2 subpar years. Your odds of this QB winning you a SB are much better because he's going to give you many shots at the apple.

    I just wonder if there ARE enough "franchise" QB's for everybody. I personally think NO. I think you some teams will have to face reality that they unless they tank or stink they will never have the fortune to draft Top 5 in a year with 1 or 2 good/great QB prospects....and that the BEST you can hope for is to have a QB whose ceiling happens at an opportune time (think Nick Foles in 2018 with the Eagles)....and live with the much lower floors that he brings.

    Lots of mediocre to average QB's got a team to the Super Bowl (fewer won it).....Kerry Collins, Jake DelHome, Trent Dilfer (won it), Neil O'Donnel (!), etc.......but their floors prevented multiple return visits.

    That is why I am so obsessed with getting Trevor Lawrence (assuming I like what I see the next 2-4 games): it is NOT the ceiling that I want, it's the floor !. It's when he has a "bad" game with a QB rating of 75 which represents his low point of the year (assuming I am right and he is that good). No QB ratings of 40 or 25 or the ever-dreaded Blutarsky :D:

     
    #13 JetsKickAss, Dec 10, 2020
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2020
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  14. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    He was a better talent than his numbers indicated. I thought he had a good arm, NCJ -- don't forget where he played. He missed a TON of games, some of them concussion related (and he's suffering from CTE today).

    Just goes to show you the importance of the OL: it's not the fewer hits or sacks that matter, it's that as the number of both increases the risk of getting seriously hurt skyrockets EXPONENTIALLY. That is why Dan Marino was so valuable...he rarely missed games (esp. the first 10 years). He got sacked/hit maybe 1/2 as much as other QB's...but probably took 1/10th the beating.
     
  15. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

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    So you think Christian Hackenberg would be successful on the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes wouldn't be on the Jets?
     
  16. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

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    I didn't mention McMahon I mentioned the defense. McMahon didn't have to be great on that team. A field goal would win them games because the defense was so good. He just had to manage the team and limit the mistake. That team almost went undefeated if it weren't for Marino and the Dolphins.
     
  17. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    There are very few actual franchise QB's. In that small group there are fewer still that will do almost anything to win.

    I think there's a really good argument that there have only been 3 franchise QB's in the NFL over the last 20-odd years. Guys that win every year and take their teams to the playoffs every year.

    That would be Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger in the order they entered the NFL.

    Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson clearly had the talent but they also demanded top dollar and so the talent around them diminished and they could not win with diminished talent around them.

    It's almost certain at this point that Pat Mahomes will wind up in the Rodgers/Brees/Wilson class of great greedy QB's. Odds are he will not be able to win as much as he is now once the effect his contract has on the cap over time begins to be felt.
     
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  18. CotcheryFan

    CotcheryFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

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    If Lawrence is ours and lives up to the hype, he'll demand top dollar too. We'll be stuck between a rock and a hard place because QB's of Trevor's caliber done come around very often.
     
  19. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    My definition of a FQB is much less strict than yours Br4d. To me, a FQB is one who consistently leads his team to the playoffs, and is capable of winning a SB. Manning, Brady, and Roethlisberger are another level (or two) up that ladder - shoe-ins for the HOF.

    As for Mahomes pricing himself out of success, I doubt it. He doesn't need a whole lot to win - if they invest in his OL, I think he'll be okay.
     
  20. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    Heck no Hackenberg was terrible.. I remember him turfing balls at the combine and hoping we don’t pick him.

    The coach/OC needs to compliment the QB.. Reid’s system is perfect for a strong arm QB with quick receivers.
     
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