The NFL has become a pass-to-set-up-the-run league over the past twenty five years. The rules favor the offense when it comes to the aerial attack; the necessity to score more points and the kind of athletes playing the game all seem to point to passing rather than running the ball. Things may be changing, however. Back in 2002 only three of the 32 teams actually ran the ball more than they passed but since then running the ball is on the rise. I was surprised at where the trend is headed and 2008 may be a special season for running games. I asked a few NFL head coaches about the rise in running and of course they all started out with the idea that every team wants to run the ball. But eventually we got down to other possibilities - like attacking undersized defenses built to defend the pass, protecting the number of inexperienced quarterbacks forced to get on the field too early in their careers, the number of defensive-minded head coaches in the league that simply want to play it close to the vest whenever possible and even the outgrowth of the tandem running backs approach that has become so popular. In the past three season only one team - the Jacksonville Jaguars - has called more running plays than passing plays. Jacksonville boasted a 31-17 record during that span. But the Jaguars are not alone with a run-to-pass ratio that favors the run. Last year six other teams - the Vikings, Steelers, Raiders, Bills, Tennessee, and Chargers - all ran more running plays than passing plays. Seven teams in 2006 ran the ball more than they passed. You would think that those 14 teams over a two-year span would have been successful because we all watch enough football to see teams on every Sunday bail on the runinng game when they are losing. Of those 14 teams, half had winning records and made the playoffs. That brings to light some of the reasons coaches pointed out as to why teams are running the ball more like protecting a young QB, and defensive minded head coaches had some validity. 10 of the 14 teams had a head coach who was a defensive coordinator before he was a head coach, and 7 of the teams were playing inexperienced quarterbacks who weren't ready for the complete passing attack. Since 2000 only 41 teams have run the ball 500 or more times in a season, which averages out to five teams a year. In the same time period, 21 teams a season have averaged over 500 pass attempts a season so the run is not going to overtake the pass as the most popular method of playing offense; but there is no doubt the ground attack is on the way back. The Broncos are an interesting team to look at when it comes to run/pass ratio. From 2003 to 2005 they ran the ball more than they passed it all three seasons and had a 33-15 record with playoff appearances in all three years. In the past two seasons the pass has overtaken the run in Denver and its record is 16-16 with no playoff appearances. Some would say it was a poor defense that forced the passing, some would say the QB skills favored the pass. Both may be true but Denver needs to get back to what made it successful. Ten teams ran the ball more than they passed it in 2005. Here's how they finished. Team Record Denver* 13-3 Seattle* 13-3 Jacksonville* 12-4 Pittsburgh* 11-5 Chicago* 11-5 Carolina* 11-5 Kansas City 10-6 Washington* 10-6 Dallas 9-7 Atlanta 8-8 *Made the playoffs In looking at the run/pass ratio the best 'run', if you will, for the NFL was 2003-2005. Over that time an average of nine teams a season ran the ball more than they passed it and 18 of the 26 teams that stayed on the ground more than in the air made the playoffs. 24 of the 26 teams had a winning record! So will 2008 resemble 2005 when 10 teams kept it on the ground? All indications are that the perfect storm is here for the season. I could see 11-12 teams running the ball more than they pass it this season. Here is a quick look back at 2005 before I speculate on 2008. The teams that look poised to run it more than throw it in 2008: 1. Pittsburgh: A defensive-minded head coach, a two headed monster in the backfield, and a long history. 2. Jacksonville: Running the ball is always the Jags' plan; why not make it four years in a row? 3. Tennessee: Jeff Fisher has the two backs, the offensive line, and the need to protect his QB. 4. San Diego: LaDainian Tomlinson is the only reason the Chargers need. 5. Kansas City: Larry Johnson is back, the QB can't handle a big passing attack and Herm Edwards is defensive-minded head coach. 6. Oakland: The Raiders did it last year and now they have inexperienced JaMarcus Russell under center with Darren McFadden joining Justin Fargas and Michael Bush in the backfield. 7. New York Jets: When newly acquired guard Alan Faneca was in Pittsburgh 75 percent of the running attack ran through him. The same will be true with the Jets. 8. Baltimore: An inexperienced QB will probably start, the great pass blocking left tackle (Jonathan Ogden) is gone and they now have a defensive-minded young head coach. 9. Buffalo: Trent Edwards is entering his first full season as a starter, the Bills ran it more than passed it last year and head coach Dick Jauron comes from the defensive world. 10. Houston: Alex Gibbs was hired to establish the run game and whereever he goes (Denver, Atlanta) they run the ball more than throw it. 11. Miami: Bill Parcells and Tony Sporano know this team isn't ready to stick its neck out and throw the ball. The Fish have a two-headed monster in the backfield (Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams) a young tackle in Jake Long, who is a mauler as a run blocker, and they brought in tight ends who run block. 12. Minnesota: Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor vs. letting Tarvaris Jackson try and beat you. Not yet. 13. Detroit: Rod Marinelli let former offensive coordinator Mike Martz go in the offseason and vows to stick with the run this year. His offensive line coach is calling the plays and he will pound it with the running game. 14. Atlanta: The Falcons have little choice but to play conservatively until the team is built and newly acquired RB Michael Turner is their best weapon.
As we say in the field of statistics: BEWARE OF LURKING VARIABLES Yes, many teams will pound the run as part of their offensive strategy. But think about it, when do most teams run the ball the most? When they're up in the fourth quarter and trying to run down the clock. That's why all these playoff teams ran the ball so much, it's not necessarily their usual strategy. Just sayin
The first 4 teams have always been run-first teams. You're talking about the Indys and Pats and Packers, who are not on that list.
Your absolutely right. The also failed to say that all of these playoff teams could throw the ball when they needed too with a few exceptions.
Never mind the rest of those putzes... I say these NYJs are going to steamroll the competition with their big backs, and with their fast backs. That OL will knock them down and stomp out the D. They're going to just stop worrying about anything but that line of scrimmage. I want to see the NYJ OL become the most wanted men in the NFL. Callahan -- he just better do his level best with these guys and turn them into the road-grader monsters we deserve. The best thing for the NYJs to accomplish this year is to eradicate forever their OL's penchant for lollygagging finesse bullshit, in favor of making the other guys bleed when in doubt about what to do next. You do get fatigued with always seeing those Big Uglies looking at each other with that confused slack-jawed quizzical stare about just what the hell just happened...! If Thomas Jones is going to become a beast, by God, he needs a helluva lot of company help from up front.
Ya know what? Ya know what, Keep Chad & Kellen? I am totally with you on this. There's a (slight) chance you're 100% correct. Under certain NFL circumstances (and our own fantasies), The Jets could steamroll the Pats, the Bills, the 'Fins and the rest of their opponents this year. It's possible! I don't disagree. As one Jets fan to another, I am gonna keep this fantasy in my head. After all, we are approaching the new season, and we gotta be positive, right?
Teams that keep the ball on the ground have always been more successful than teams that put it up for grabs when you look at group dynamics. The question is how much of this is a chicken and egg debate? If you are successful scoring points and preventing points on defense then you give yourself the latitude to keep the ball on the ground more often, even if that ultimately cuts down the number of plays you run and points that you score. You'd need to look at the first quarter drives of all the teams and compare the run/pass ratio of those drives to the other three quarters to get a feel for how rushing actually correlates to victory in the NFL. I don't know if the Steelers rush more or less often early on but I'm betting they don't since they'll be sitting on the ball and grinding out the clock when they have a lead late. Maybe the better comparison would be the first quarter vs the second and third, since that would eliminate the bias towards really grinding the clock down that often predominates in a winning fourth quarter team's strategy.
Parcells used to call using the running game to consolidate his successful defense's control of the game "lettiing the air out of the ball." Running after stopping the other team, takes a lot of time off the clock much faster than passes where every out of bounds or incomplete stops it. You can frustrate the other team and goad them out of defending the pass (especially down the field) when your running game is gashing their D repeatedly. A dangerous ground game gives your team a formidable weapon to force your opponent to choose how they're going to lose the game. Of course, if you don't have much of ground game because your "Big'un's" are busy shaking hands and getting acquainted up on the line of scrimmage, you see the OC sending in the dinks and dunks because he knows full well most other long-developing plays can get somebody on the IR quickly enough. When I see a team coming back to those short quick passes too much, I think they can't block worth a damn. If you can whip somebody you don't need to trick them.
Even though our line is much improved, I'd really like to see Shottenjunior return to the 2006 strategy of trickery and constant motion. It worked then - don't know why he more or less abandoned that strategy last season.
Because Adrien Clarke blew chunks at left guard and Brandon Moore is not what you'd call a gifted finesse player at right guard? The Jets guard tandem was so bad last year that trying to play a trickery and misdirection game was out of the question. Kendall wasn't a great guard but he certainly was a smart and quickfooted one.
The problem with this whole premise is that a lot of teams run the ball more when they are winning. So they didn't necessarily win because they ran the ball more, they likely ran the ball more because they were winning. Not every time but most of the time.
I'd like to think that we can finally run the ball this year, because it's SO critical to the game as is so correctly outlined in the post above. You have to go back to Curtis Martin in his heyday, with guys like Kevin Mawae and Jumbo Elliot in their primes, to see a running game the likes of which even remotely describes the above. Hopefully, with this line and some of the other weapons, Jones and Washington will bring to the table a running game par excellance. I'd like to see Keller step up and become a good run-blocker, because just being able to insert him and having his pass-catching abilities on the line add an even greater dimension to what has to be defended. As far as beating NE, if we can put some points on the board and then grind out the clock with a running game, we can keep Brady and Moss off the field. They can't score points sitting on the bench while we take precious minutes off the clock.
The team runs the ball on the defense because IT CAN. and AS LONG AS IT CAN it runs the ball down their throat. You don't have to throw the ball when you're making first downs every three carries. You whip their ass and keep it up until the game is over, enjoying every minute of it. Maybe after a while, you decide you want to demoralize the bastards a different way, so you fake that off-tackle you have been murdering them with regularly, and chunk it down field for a 48 yard completion and run. That's got to piss them off all over again. Then you go back to knocking them down and running them over.
Exactly, this is called "using the run to open up the pass," which has been a football philosophy since its inception. Why is this so hard to follow.
From your highly imaginative Jets fingertips to God's ears! Christ, castrate me if that's what it takes to have our team look that way against the Patriots this year! Well... maybe I'm getting carried away....
