I was going to post this in an existing thread, but then I thought it really deserved its own. If the Mods disagree they can move it. I came across this article in today's (1/22/22) Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/21/allen-rodgers-deep-pass/ I don't know if everyone can read it or you need to subscribe, but I'll cut and paste the main points (in italics). First, defenses have evolved to cut down on big plays: That's the background. The article then goes on to talk about Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady, and how each of them are different, but each has found ways to excel at connecting on deep passes when they need or want to. I'm not going to paste all of that here, but one thing jumped out at me: while we all know and expect Rodgers and Brady to be good at deep passing, despite Allen's big arm his success after his first two years was almost shocking. Here's the context: I'll end the pasting job here, but I hope you guys can read the whole article. It underscores where the NFL has been going for some time. And it also proves how critical having a QB who can make big plays is. I know some people here have questioned or have doubts that Wilson can be that QB, but consider a few things: - He has a very strong arm. Maybe not in Mahomes or Allen's class, but close enough. He has shown that he can make every throw from every part of the field with ease, and maybe more importantly than raw arm strength, his release is among the quickest in the NFL. - He's accurate. Yes, he has struggled with that in the NFl, especially early, but that has improved as his protection, weapons and the playcalling have improved. But in college, he was the second most accurate passer, only slightly behind Mac Jones. - For those who dismiss the previous stat as simply the product of him playing a "weak" schedule", even if you doubt his accuracy - which I think is a mistake - consider how bad Allen was in his first two years, and then how he turned that around. And also note that Allen did so AFTER Buffalo got him reliable weapon like Diggs. Articles like this aren't really "news", so much as reports on what has already happened. GMs aren't reading this article and saying, "Gee, I didn't know that!" They're aware - and have been for some time - of this trend. So when Joe Douglas looked at his QB options, he realized that Darnold wasn't going to be able to perform like he needed to, but he saw a QB that could, so he spent the #2 pick on him. Okay, well a lot of words to wade through, but hopefully you'll get something out of it.
Unfortunately, I can't read the article at the site, but thanks for sharing this much of it. Great stuff and your comments are spot on!
I used to have a subscription to the Post online, but found that I never had time to read it, and couldn't justify continuing to pay every month for something I wasn't getting the benefit of. Too bad the article didn't come out last year.
I've often wondered what the expected value of say a pass 40+ yards downfield is including YAC and pass-interference. Just based upon what I've seen and think, teams are not utilizing these plays enough. Couple observations: 1. I don't think you can get shut out if you go long lots of times. If a teams offense is suffering going long could be the antidote. And you don't need burners or a great armed qb. 2. Throw it up there--lots of times the interception has more net yards than a punt 3. Long passes open up the short passing game
I was always told stretching out the width was just as important as going deep. If you can go deep but you can’t stretch it out sideline to sideline, going deep can cause more problems than joy. Obviously being able to stretch both wide and deep is the dream not everyone has the tools to accomplish which is why being able to adjust to what the other side is giving you is also important. And yes, this post is riddled with innuendo.
The long pass in football is like a home run or a 2 handed dunk. Gets the crowd screaming and amped. Or if it's an away game, shuts the fans up for a bit. Zack's long ball to win the Titans game was a thing of beaty and will be on his highlight real for years to come. So ya, give us something to cheer about!!!
WaPo runs specials (they all do) and my wife got the subscription for like a dollar a month which I thought was reasonable.
I agree Zach may one day be a good downfield QB but your reasoning doesn't really stand up. Zach hasn't shown he can make every throw. Strong arms are fine but touch passes, even on deeper routes, are a crucial skill in the NFL, and Zach hasn't shown he can throw them with any consistency. All of his throws are bullets and none of them drop over a DB on the fly. You cant always count on having a clear path or open window, especially on deeper routes, which is why touch passes are necessary, and accuracy for Zach is so important.... When he finishes bottom 5 in completion percentage we cant automatically anoint him an accurate QB. The draft is over. College is no longer part of the argument, only what he does in the NFL. The truth is touch passes and accuracy are both skills he needs to sharpen. If Zach is the QB that can lead an effective downfield passing game, he needs to improve these things this offseason.
Yes, that's why I had a subscription last year, but once that ends, you can't re-up for $1 month, or you couldn't last year. They keep sending me emails to re-up, but I haven't seen the $1 a month special.
Well IDK how it works with WaPo, but with the NYT, when their "special offer" ends, I call up and tell them I'm cancelling and they always offer me a new deal. It's not always as good as the original, but it's always been cheap enough to be worth it. BTW: I'm not advocating getting a subscription to WaPo, nor do I make a commission off it, I'm just relaying my experience.
This is correct. Teams piss away too many first down plays on one yard runs up the gut. Why not give yourself a (let’s say) 40% shot at a deep completion or pass interference instead? I’ve always been an advocate of the early bomb. Throw it four yards past the receiver even if it’s not there. Make that free safety get in a full sprint and think about it the rest of the game.
Well he hasn't shown consistency in making every throw but he CAN make every throw and put touch on the ball, and as he gains experience he should reacquire the form he showed in college. Most of his throws have been on target with the exception of a few games where he made some bad throws on screens and short passes - he improved over the last 5 games. Bottom line: Yes, he needs to improve and prove he can be a FQB, but if Allen could remake himself, I believe Wilson can because he had/has much better fundamentals and was more accurate to begin with.
Exactly man--frees everything up--also can throw to open spot on field and maybe wr adjusts enough to get it. Mahomes does this with Tyreek and our own Elijah Moore could have capitalized on at least 2 occasions I recall tho Zach didn't throw it properly.
Noteworthy Allen needed Diggs to make the jump he did. Everyone wants to keep fixing the o line but Wilson needs real receivers who aren't leading the league in drops. The right WR/TE is worth the investment
I need all the Optimism I can get as to where the NYJs are headed..so thanks CC!! In a way I can sleep on the fact that Wilson is raw made mistakes last season but the Arm is what's important So Hope springs Eternal that GM made the right call Sigh ..I am in my 7th decade and this Jets thing of " maybe next year"is just getting old lol
As a fellow old timer I can appreciate your reservations...we've had our hopes dashed so many times over the decades. And I might be wrong or perhaps I'm just a sucker, but I will be shocked if Wilson fails. Aside from my own observations and research on him which told me that here was a QB who has always been hungry and out to prove his doubters wrong, who has way above average arm talent and an exceptionally quick release, and uses different arm angles, and is far more mobile and athletic than most people realize, there is the assessment of Douglas and his staff. Douglas hasn't been perfect - he's made some mistakes, but all GMs do - but IMO he's night and day better than Maccagnan and Idzik and Tanny. And he learned the ropes in winning organizations, in particular under Ozzie Newsome and learned the value of having a blueprint to build on. Again, I could be wrong, But I really think the Jets are finally headed in the right direction after decades of wandering around.
