It drives me crazy when these coaches kick a PAT in the 4th Q to go up by 8. I know they all do it, but to me this is pure stupidity. All you have to do is watch NFL games every week, and it's obvious that there's almost no difference between a 7 point lead and an 8 point lead at the end of a game. If a team drives on you to tie the game, I bet they also convert the 2 point conversion 90% of the time against a tired defense. There's no doubt in my mind that the smart play is going for two and a 9 point lead. Even if you don't make it, they STILL need a TD and a PAT to tie, and in that case there's no way they go for two if they score. Coaches seem to think that having that 8th point is some kind of insurance policy. It isn't. ESPECIALLY with our pass defense. Believe me Todd ... if they come down the field to score on us, we are NOT breaking up the two point conversion. Make it a two score game when you have the chance.
That's silly, of course there's a difference. A two point play is maybe 50-50 while an extra point is still 90-95% even now. You make the other team do the 5-10% chance play to tie and for all you know maybe the Browns go for two to try to win it in that spot anyway being 0-7. Being up 8 you don't give the other team a chance to win in regulation, in 7 they might. You think it didn't make a difference in the AFC Championship when Gostkowski missed a PAT and the Pats had to drive the field down 8 instead of down 7? They scored the TD...and didn't convert the two.
You miss my point. It's not a 50-50 shot at the end of the game ... against THIS defense. It's probably closer to 80%. Are you seriously telling me you have more faith in this defense stopping a two point play after giving up a long game timing drive, than the offense converting a two point play? You might be right with another team. But I can't agree with you on THIS pass defense. They are flat out AWFUL.
But no coach is going to coach with that little confidence in a defense. Besides, it's one play - even the most hideous pass defense known to mankind can make one lousy stop (or have the other team screw up) in a all-or-nothing situation.
You're totally wrong on this. A two point conversion is not a gimme. When you are leading, you are at an advantage. You get to dictate the terms of things going forward. So . . . Why make yourself go for two instead of making them go for two?
It's just one of those things that will never change but I agree Teams should also go for it on 4th down way more than they do I think there needs to be a mindset where we have 4 chances to get 10 yards instead of only 3 downs
An extra point is not a gimmie and if you go up by 9 the game is over basically I'd rather try to go up by 2 scores in my control and if it fails, it's not that big of a deal
This would be a classic example of a false equivalency. Statistically speaking, the extra point (even the new, longer one) is much more of a gimme than a two point conversion.
The expected points for a 2 point conversion are about the same as those for an extra point, so in the regular run of play it doesn't matter. What about in this situation? To simplify things, let's assume a 2 pointer is successful half the time, and an extra point is successful all the time. Moreover, if we go up by 9, we win all the time. If we go up by 8, we win 15 out of 16 times. That's because to win, they need a touchdown (assumed success rate 25% but we can really pick any number we want), 2 point conversion (success rate 50%), and overtime win (success rate 50%). And if we fail the 2 point try, we win 7 out of 8 times, as the 2 point conversion is no longer a factor assuming they choose to kick the extra point. So by kicking the extra point, we win 15 out of 16. And by going for 2, half the time we win 16 out of 16 and half the time we win 14 out of 16. So on average, we win 15 out of 16. Conclusion: Assuming there are no other factors, it doesn't matter whether you kick or go for 2. Ultimately it comes down to whether you think you or your opponents have a better chance of a successful 2 point try.
All depends on the situation in the end...how are the weather factors? Does that kicker suck at extra points compared to the norm? Does your kicker suck at extra points? Do you feel you have 1 great play to go for 2? The bottom line for me is if I'm confident enough that I have one play to get the 2 to end the game right there and go up by 9 I'll do it....If not then obviously kick it
Don't worry....before long the 'kicking game' will just be something we talk about with fondness to our kids.
Nobody will convince me that going for a 9 point lead is not the right move. Here's what you're saying ... You have a 48% chance to end the game right there. And the only downside is ... even if you fail, the other team still needs to score a TD and kick a PAT just to tie you. But rather than take that 48% chance with a huge upside, you'd rather hold onto a 52% chance that if you can't stop them from scoring, you still might be able to stop them from making the conversion. In essence ... Rather than try to win the game right there, you think leaving yourself a 4% safety net sounds like the better play. That logic is ridiculous. Go for two!!
I agree man...if the Jets were on the other end I would be nervous if the other team decided to go for 2 to go up 9 (two scores) Like I said before there are so many variables to this answer (kickers for both teams, exact time remaining, game flow, your confidence in your offense and defense in this particular game in a short yardage situation on the 2 or conversion) But long story short, in general I think going for the kill is the correct move
Statistically, I just don't think the argument is there. For example, even if your kicker sucks "compared to the norm" or just sucks "at extra points," the extra point is still going to be a much higher percentage play. What would the worst kicker in NFL history have, like a 95% chance of making the extra point? Maybe 90% with with increased distance? At best, a a two point conversion is a little better than 50-50. Maybe 60-40? Maaaybe 65-35? Outside of some special scenario, like playing against an all-time great quarterback who has driven his team for a touchdown on the last 6 possessions, I just don't see how it would ever be statistically justified.
I may have, and its still the dumbest thread on this board.I wouldnt start playoff pipe dream threads atleast until we are 5-5.
I like the idea of going for two more often. Not so much with this offense or more importantly this play caller. Gailey has been horrendous this year. If we had a quarterback and offense we trust more (like the Steelers with Roethlisberger), then I'd go for it a bit more frequently, especially earlier on in the game when the games more up in the air. An 8-0 lead is a big momentum swing in favor of the leading team, and teams still have plenty of time to recover. Knowing our offense, we'd run a screen, a shitty shovel pass that gets sniffed out easily, or a run up the gut into the teeth of the defense and get stuffed. So in our situation, I'm kicking the extra point with this team.
A 2 point conversion is slightly less than 50-50. If a 2 pointer were 60-40 or 65-35, you'd go for 2 every time (unless it's something like the last minute of a tie game, and the extra point is for the win).
