Figured it's about time to do a full mock offseason for the jets. this one will be admittedly wild and i'll do newer versions as things change along the way but for now this is what I got To start off there will be some precursor to this based on current rumors in the NFL 1) The lions trade matt stafford to the colts for colts 1st rounder (21st overall) - why it makes sense? colts won't get an instant starter at QB at 21. they kicked the tires on rivers who was ok but not his younger self and is now retiring. they have a win now team and plenty of cap room. stafford him makes them a SB contender. Rumor is they are going to move him to trade up for a QB in the draft Current cap 67.4 mil (it's listed at 62.4 but the cap is expected to be around 180 mil not 175 mil so I added in the extra 5 mil) Jets trades Jets trade 2nd overall to the lions for their 7th overall, 21st overall, and 72nd overall (2 1sts and a 3rd) logic: Lions want to move up for a QB. sliding back 5 places is worth the 21st and 72nd overall value wise Jets trade 7th overall, 21st overall, 2022 seattle 1st, seattles 3rd rounder, lions 3rd rounder and sam darnold to the texans for deshaun watson and brandon cooks logic: watson seems to want out and is ok with the jets. rumor is prefers the jets because saleh. this is a huge package for the texans who have no 1st or 2nd rounders this year. it gives them 2 1st rounders a potential QB to fix (and they can still take a rookie 7th overall or 21st overall) getting back darnold, 3 1sts (including a top 10) 2 for the current year plus a 3rd rounder. Why cooks? well houston is having cap issue. they would have to release cooks if they can't find a trade partner. his value is around a 3rd rounder so that's where the other 3rd rounder comes in. for the jets it makes sense. it fills a hole at WR, we have the cap room and adds value to the trade. watson also gets a WR he's comfortable with right off the bat cap impact darnold savings 900k watson cap 10.54 mil cooks cap 12 mil full impact 21.64 current cap space 45.76 current picks 23rd overall, 2nd (34th overall), 3rd (66th overall), 4th (97th overall), 2 5ths (129th and 137th), 6th (172nd) Releases Henry anderson 8.2mil Lewis 6.2mil van roten 3.5mil griffen 2.8mil doctson 1mil malone 900k total savings 22.6 mil new cap space 68.36mil Logic: anderson hasn't performed up to his contract and doesn't fit our new system. he's expensive and we have better younger and cheaper players on the d-line. lewis and GVR haven't played well and we'll address the OG spot later. giffen hasn't been the same since the injury. doctson and malone aren't anything worth keeping FA's and Resigns Note with the cap dropping 15% of what it was projected to be (210 mil vs 180 mil) contracts will also go down by 15% this offseason. FAs should be cheaper then in the past. less buyers more sellers. it's a buyers market this year Resign Hewitt - 2years 4mil Maye - 3 years 30 mil elfien - 1 year 1 mil luvu - 1 year 700k total impact 13.7 mil new cap 54.66 Logic: maye is a top safety. he deserves a payday. but he is 27 and it's not a big buyers market. 10 mil is pretty fair for him. I'd love for him to stay. the rest are cheap depth guys. elfien will get a chance to fight for a starting job on a 1 year prove it deal. Free Agents Brandon Schreff LG 3 years 45 mil Richard Sherman FS 2 years 10 mil solomon thomas DE 3 years 15 mil Matt brieda RB 2 years 6 mil Nick Mullins QB 1 year 1 mil Jordan Willis DE 1 year 1 mil Joe Walker 2 years 2 mil Total cap impact 31 mil new cap 23.66mil Logic: since we are making the splash of trading for watson and cooks and their salaries I don't see us being major spenders. having some room to roll over for 2022 will be crucial if the cap doesn't bounce back up in 2022. the only big splace we make is schreff for the O-line who starts next to becton. huge upgrade from what we had last year. the other 3 are niners players who are relatively cheap. thomas will get a chance to start for us and knows saleh and the system. yes he's been labeled a bust since being 3rd overall and the niners didn't pick up his option but he's a solid run defender with knowledge of the system. sherman seems to love saleh and likely follows him here. at 33 he'll be cheap and move to safety to start opposite of maye and again knows the system well and good guy to have for saleh in the locker room. lastly Breida helps at RB where we will have a RBBC and need some veteran experience there and he's young, knows the system and has excelled in it at 5YPC. Mullins is a good pickup as a vet backup who knows the system NOTE: Originally had tevin coleman but swapped him out for matt brieda Mock draft 1st (23) CB Tyson campbell - perfect fit for salehs defense. we need CB help and free agency and trades already fill many offensive holes. CB is our biggest need at this point. 2nd (34th) WR amon-ra st brown - now we start to look for some replacements for vets that will leave next year when we need cap room. st brown is perfect to replace crowder in 2022 in the slot 3rd (66th) - OT walker little - former top 10 pick who has now missed 2 years of football (injury then opt out) will slide to the 3rd in a loaded class. perfect to replace fant at RT in 2022 4th (97th) - TE hunter long - with griffins release and brown walking that leaves us with just herndon and wesco. the niners drafted a TE in the 3rd named kittle. long can be out version (won't be the next kittle but similar skill set) and fit in nice with herndon in our offense 5th (129th) - FS james wiggins - we will need some depth at safety. I love wiggins in this draft. can cover the slot WR, fast, great locker room guy, strong. physical freak that could do well in salehs defense and learn form maye and sherman. him and davis could be our future safeties. also will make a great gunner on special teams 5th (137th) - WR Warren Jackson - huge 6-6 target at 215 lbs. not a speedy guy but a great red zone guy with a huge catch radius. a bigger slower version of mims. we need more outside WRs and this guy is it. Not sure if he'll ever start or start any time soon but can contribute in the red zone for us. laflaur will find a way to use his size 6th (172nd) - RB Master teague - this is iffy as he may not declare but if he does he's make a great 6th round pick. I'm not high on perine. coleman isn't a long term answer. teague could be huge value here Estimated Rookie cap charges 10.5 mil new cap room 13.16 mil Depth Chart for 2021 (bold indicates new player, italics indicates rookie) Offense (25) QB Watson, Mullins, Morgan WR Cooks, Mims, Crowder, St Brown, Berrios, Jackson RB Brieda, Johnson, Perine, Teague TE Herndon, Long, Wesco OT Becton, Fant, Little, Edoga OG Schreff, Elfien, Clark C Mcgovern, murray Defense (24) DE Thomas, JFM, Zuniga, Phillips, Willis DT Q, Foley, Shepard OLB Cashman, Huff, Luvu MLB Mosley, Hewitt, Walker CB Campbell, Bless, guidry, hall, Ballentine, Jackson S Sherman, Maye, Wiggins, Davis Special teams (3) LS Hennesey P Mann K Ficken KR/PR Wiggins/berrios/ballentine (count above already) Clean up (will leave us with 67 on the roster including non listed players current figured into the cap) cutting off 14 minimum salaries adds about 7 mil. less about 2 mil for the practice squad. so add 5 mil. I'm also 1 player 1 short on the roster which can be an UDFA or other cheap free agent likely LBer or DT Cap room 18.16 This mock I think really sets us up for success. the cap room will be important for 2022 where we don't know what it'll be at. We have our franchise QB without leveraging the future. we'll have all of our future picks still just no extra 1st in 2022 which is fine. that sets us up in 2022 to try and find a WR1 and Edge rusher. even without the true edge rusher I think fans will be surprised about the pressure we'll get on the d-line with JFM, Q, and foley. all performed very well for us. 2022 cap outlook My big thing about watson is the cap hit that starts in 2022 so I need to think for the future. for 2022 out current salaries are 85.7 mil (24 players) add in the rookies from 2021 10.5mil (7 players) add in the free agents from 2021 29 mil (not 31 because 2 players are on 1 year deals) (5 players) add in cooks and watson 48 mil (2 players) add in the resignings 12 mil (not 14 mil because 2 players are on 1 year deals) (2 players) Total cap 185.20 40 players less the releases from 2021 lewis 7.2 mil van roten 3.5 mil griffen 3.4 mil total cap 171.1 mil 37 players I think this gives us decent flexibility. we need to find 16 players but will have all our draft picks and cap flexibility. fant can be cut for 9.65 mil, cooks could be cut to save 13 mil if needed. Depends on the cap. if it's stuck at 180 we'll still carry over 18 mil for a cap of 198mil which leaves us with 27 mil (about 16 after signing rookies) to fill some holes. we won't be spenders in free agency but we won't be screwed. we can get some role players to fill out the roster. if to balloons back up to around 200 million (which it could depending on the TV deal. we could have 47 mil to spend. with watsons contract it's unlikely we ever spend big in free agency again so we just need to draft well around him. out big FAs in 2022 would be crowder (replaced with st brown) JSM, phillips, foley, herndon, guidry, lamaar jackson. We won't be bad off by any means and have some flexiblity.
This is well thought out and shows that the Jets do have the resources to trade for Watson and still build a team around him. A few things to consider... I think you'd have to give the Texans the option of taking #2 overall or trading down. They might rather have the 2nd pick to take Watson's replacement. I also don't know if that would be enough to get it done. The market still has to develop for Watson. If the Dolphins aren't in, that package could be hard for other teams to beat. I also think the Jets might be better off holding onto their 3rd round pick and signing a free agent WR instead of trading for Cooks.
You're getting too cute. If the Texans are trading Watson, and we trade out of 2, Watson probably goes to Miami.
could be done as well. offer then the 2 and next years 1st and a 3rd or the option for the lions package. the other thing is could trade them the 2 for them to make the same trade with the lions. either way it works out the same but I wouldn't give the 2 plus 2 additional 1sts. if we give the 2 it would have to be with 1 other 1st, the 3rd, and darnold for the same package IDK if the fins even want to. I don't think they will give up on tua after 1 season. when they can draft a team around him with all those picks. taking slater or sewell 3rd overall gives them a direct replacement for tunsil they traded and still have another 1st
we could offer them the 2 1st along with seattles 3rd this year and 1st next year and darnold. then they can decide to trade down or take a QB at 2. I'd be firm that the 2nd overall is worth 2 1st rounders but we don't know how they feel about darnold nor do we know if they are ok taking a QB at 7. remember this mahomes 10th watson 12th rodgers 24th allen 7th jackson 32nd herbert 6th wilson 3rd round brady 6th round cousins 4th round carr 2nd round tannehill 8th ben 11th brees 2nd rounder it's a deep QB class too with tlaw, wilson, fields, and lance all expected to be 1st rounders and possible 1sts but probably 2nds in trask and jones. they may prefer the 7th and the extra picks since they need a lot of help and don't have cap room. I think the lions take wilson if they have the 2nd overall pick. the texans could prefer fields or lance at 7 or even mac jones at 21.
For all the back and forth we've had, I don't think there's much difference in what we would give up for Watson. Your trade here is basically #2, '21 SEA 3rd rounder, '22 SEA 1st rounder and Sam Darnold for Deshaun Watson and Brandon Cooks. I've said #2, '21 SEA 3rd rounder, '22 SEA 1st rounder, and '23 NYJ 1st rounder for Watson. Typically, a pick's value drops a round for each year away it is from the current year. So a '23 1st round pick is around the value of a 3rd round pick this year. I also think Darnold is worth a 3rd round pick this year.
I wouldn't give up that 2023 1st. that's this big difference. you never know whats going to happen and you don't want to be without a 1st as a rebuilding team. yes the pick devalues because it's future but you don't want to be like the texans where they traded away a future 1st which wound up being 3rd overall.
Yea, that's obviously the risk, but if that's what it costs to give the Jets a top 3 QB for the next 10 years, I'm OK with taking that risk. The Texans did it for the highest paid LT in football and a WR they cut this year.
This I don't like. Not a fan of Watson and surely don't want to give away a ton to get him. Shepard and Edoga need to go away they both have been way under performers. Throughly worked out but I would prefer a Allen Robinson somewhere in this offseason mock. We need a stud WR that our next QB whoever that would be can depend on.
if we don't go watson obviously this would change. I can understand not wanting watson because of the cost of the picks and the cap, but as a player what do you have against him? he's a fantastic QB. I do love robinson but in this version we can't pay him. cooks would be cheaper and would round out the WR group. obviously robinson is better but sometimes you have to pay less for a player. shepard IDK why you are down on. both him and edoga are cheap on rookie deals still so no reason to let go of either. shepard is a solid rotaitonal guy on the d-line. edoga is likely gone after this season and has disappointed. he should have taken over the Rt spot but isn't good enough. still he's a cheap solid backup.
I watched him alot and he is not clutch at all. He will throw that interception at the worst time. Not really accurate also except when he Hopkins who made him look better than he deserved. Not a fan and especially not a fan of giving up that much when we suffered and lost players to attain thos picks. I would like to give Douglas a chance and see what he could do with those picks before we kneecap him with the lost of them. The Jets have had some horrible drafts from first pick to last. Douglas first draft we got Becton and Mims. Imagine getting that quality every year.
Watson has the highest QB completion all time. He just put up the best numbers of his career without Hopkins on his team.
that's a really tough thing to say about a guy who only threw 7 INTs in 544 attempts last season and has 10 game winning drives and 8 comebacks in his short career
LOL, he threw 7 INT's last season and his career TD to INT is 104:36 and a career 68 completion % rate. He also had his best season just this past one, all without Hopkins. Horrible take.
Good job GAC. I like all the time you put into this. So, what do you think about keeping Anderson on a new (lower) contract? Even if we cut him, let him test the waters, then re-sign him (about half). Risk is he'll go back to the Colts. I remember his first season here. He was a BEAST! He blocked like 3 kicks and slapped down a ton of passes too. He was our best lineman. I'm dying to see how Saleh uses him along side Quinnen. What you think? Any chance?
