Season Preview -- New York Jets A running back platoon will take some of the spotlight off 2008's leading AFC rusher, and a sophomore tight end is primed for a monster season. To see which player could soar, which could sink and who you need to be watching before the opener, you must be an ESPN Insider. One up: TE Dustin Keller Keller caught 48 of 78 targets his rookie season, and his catch rate might have been higher had Brett Favre not started forcing throws his way regardless of the coverage. Keller wasn't the best rookie tight end in the league last year -- that would be Seattle's John Carlson -- but he's a dynamic athlete and, unlike Carlson, the receiving options around him are getting worse, so his workload is due to increase. With Mark Sanchez needing a safety blanket, Keller should be the first or second read on most passing plays. Keller can line up inside, block and quickly release, and he can also split wide as a receiver when the Jets spread the field. He was primarily a short receiver last year, but he has the speed to attack the seam vertically. With a renewed emphasis on play action -- the Ravens used play action on 26 percent of their passing plays in 2008, and Rex Ryan figures to take a similar approach with his new team -- Keller is going to give defenses fits. Trending down: RB Thomas Jones [+] Enlarge William Perlman/The Star Ledger/US Presswire Jones (left) will have to forfeit even more carries to Washington this season. Jones has experienced extreme highs and lows during his two seasons in New York, going from a replacement-level back who managed only one touchdown in 2007 to the AFC's leading rusher in 2008. There are several reasons why Jones is unlikely to put up those kinds of numbers again. Jones' total of 13 rushing touchdowns was four more than his previous career high, and was related to a Jets offense that overachieved inside the red zone, so there will probably be some simple regression to the mean. With no Favre under center, and no Laveranues Coles split wide, defenses aren't going to show the same respect for the Jets' passing game, so Jones will see the same eight-man fronts that bottled him up in 2007. And Jones will have to deal with challenges from Leon Washington and rookie Shonn Greene, both of whom deserve carries. Jones will still get a majority of the touches, but it's going to be more of a committee approach in 2009. One to watch: WR Chansi Stuckey Right now, the Jets' receiving depth chart features Jerricho Cotchery and "a receiver to be named later," with David Clowney, Brad Smith, Wallace Wright and Chansi Stuckey all competing for the job. We expect Stuckey to come out on top. He had a defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) rating of 24.1 percent in limited action last year, by far the best numbers on the team, and he caught 71 percent of the balls thrown at him. Not only was Stuckey the most efficient Jets receiver last year, but he was also the most explosive with the ball in his hands, averaging 5.6 yards after the catch. Stuckey's not very big, so he might come off the field in favor of Smith or Wright when the Jets want to run the ball outside, but he still figures to get the majority of the snaps with the base offense. And he'll almost certainly shift inside to play the slot whenever the team brings on an extra receiver (probably the speedy Clowney). Sean McCormick is a writer for Football Outsiders.
Keller will definately have a monster season. After a slow start, he quickly picked up his game play. IMO, if the QB play remains consistent, he should have an 800-1000 yds season.
Tony Gonzalez didn't have that many yards until his 4th season. Those expectations are a little too high for a ball control offense.
McCormick works for Football Outsiders, who are basically a bunch of statisticians that dedicate themselves to football, similar to sabrmetricians in baseball. these guys analyze every angle of every play, every season and really, really know their stuff.
800 yards is definitely not too high of an expectation for Keller. I believe he had around 550 yards last season, and he barely was thrown any passes in about half the games. He is probably our biggest passing threat on this team, so he should get a lot more opportunities this season. Jeremy Shockey had something like 900 yards in his rookie year, and Chris Cooley has been putting up around 800 yards the last few seasons. If those guys can do it, Keller definitely can.
as the teams #2 option, he could easily put up those yards, I wouldnt be shocked in the least to see Keller have the best #'s on the team after the season. I could easily see 75 grabs 875 yards and 7 tds this season for keller.
Well, he had 535 yards in 5 starts. He had 90 yards his first 6 games. Now that Coles is gone, he isn't a rookie anymore, and is not backing up Baker, what is there to believe he wont reach 800 yards? I believe he'll reach 800 easily, assuming a consistent QB play. He has speed, and great tackle breaking ability. A 650 +/- yard season would be a failure IMO.
I would think 4 catches per game average and 50 yards average. So that's what, 50 catches and 800 yards. 6 TDs. I don't think that's outrageous at all. Looking at it, I'd say it's a little on the conservative side, myself - I mean, he could have 10 TDs no sweat.
There is no reason to consider Keller as anything less than the second best target on the Jets this year. 800 yards and 6 TD's is a very realistic goal. I thought it was interesting to see the nice marks on Stuckey. I think Stuckey ends up starting and sliding inside in 3 WR sets as suggested in this article.
I think Keller will be more of a threat this year than Cotchery due to the fact that Cotch has problems vs top CBs and Keller will be our only true match up problem. These are my receiving numbers for this years team. Keller 70 recs 840 yds 6 TD Cotchery 60 recs 720 yds 5 TD Stuckey 40 recs 560 yds 2 TD Clowney 35 recs 580 yds 2 TD B Smith 20 recs 210 yds 0 TD Leon 40 recs 320 yds 1 TD For Dirty Sanchez it adds up to be Sanchez 265/430 61% CMP% 3,230 yds 16 TD 14 INT I think that's realistic if he's going to be a good QB in the NFL and not a bust. Of course there's TJ and others who will catch a couple of balls but those are just rough numbers.
Things are a bit cloudy for me regarding the disaster that was the end of the season, but didn't Keller have a big drop/s against Denver and that was end of him being a target? If that was the case that he became a forgotten man because of that it's terrible. This guy has so much potential catching and running it's not even funny, and he was penalized for a few drops...
