FA & Potential Roster Moves

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by NCJetsfan, Feb 5, 2021.

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  1. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Hopefully, we can keep this thread until FA is over to post all discussion about FAs we'd like to see signed, and FAs the Jets actually sign.

    https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/02/04/...to-worst/?mc_cid=8789848636&mc_eid=90b98ab2f5

    Jets 2021 free agency: Ranking the centers and tackles from best to worst
    By
    Michael Nania
    -
    02/04/2021

    Ranking 32 impending NFL free agent centers and tackles from best to worst, based on an accumulation of their 2020 statistics.
    [​IMG]

    Using an agglomeration of three different key statistics, I ranked the 12 centers and 20 offensive tackles that are set to hit NFL free agency and logged at least 200 snaps in 2020. This is the ninth in a series of articles that will rank all of the qualified free agents at key positions of need for the New York Jets. I have already ranked 47 free agent wide receivers, 47 free agent edge rushers, 53 free agent cornerbacks, 30 free agent running backs, 28 free agent tight ends, 33 free agent linebackers, 31 free agent safeties and 20 free agent guards.

    Center and tackle are not prime positions of need for the Jets, but they are not entirely off the table as potential targets in free agency. Mekhi Becton is obviously penciled-in on the left side, but there are some question marks at center and right tackle.

    At center, Connor McGovern had a rough 2020 season with his awareness in pass protection, but he thrived as a run blocker and one-on-one pass protector. With those strengths and weaknesses in mind and considering his past NFL experience as a starting guard, it’s feasible to consider the possibility that the Jets decide to slide him over to guard and add a new center.

    At right tackle, George Fant is coming off of a decent 2020 season, but nothing spectacular. The Jets can escape his contract to clear $7.4 million in cap savings while taking on $2 million in dead money. Considering that contract flexibility and the fact that there are some elite right tackle options on the market, there is certainly somewhat of a possibility that Joe Douglas decides to look for an upgrade.

    Let’s hop into the rankings. The players were ranked according to their cumulative performance between pass protection and run blocking, using three different statistics.

    Here are the stats used:

    Pressure percentage allowed: The percentage of a player’s pass blocking snaps in which they were credited with allowing a pressure – either a sack, hit, or hurry.

    Pro Football Focus pass blocking grade: PFF’s all-encompassing evaluation of a player’s performance as a pass blocker based on the grading of every coverage snap.

    This stat effectively conveys the true quality of a player’s pass blocking regardless of the production he allowed. If a player gives up a sack after blocking for five-plus seconds, that sack is not his fault, and the coverage grade will reflect that by not blaming him (maybe even crediting him positively if the initial block was strong enough). On the other hand, a player can boost his protection numbers by playing in a quick-release offense where he logs “pass blocking snaps” in which he didn’t actually block anyone because the ball was released quickly. These pass blocking snaps rightfully receive no credit in PFF’s grading system.

    Reps in which a player holds a rusher at bay for four seconds receive more credit than ones where he limits the rusher for two seconds, reps in which he is absolutely destroyed are knocked more harshly than ones where he allows minor penetration, reps in which nobody is blocked receive no credit in either direction … and so forth. This is PFF’s attempt at weeding out the noise of raw totals to truly approximate a player’s pass blocking effectiveness.

    Pro Football Focus run blocking grade: PFF’s all-encompassing evaluation of a player’s performance as a run blocker based on the grading of every coverage snap. Players who consistently execute their assignment at a sufficient level tend to fare well here, while players who consistently blow their assignment to allow play-disrupting penetration tend to fare poorly. The players who grade at an elite level in this area tend to be eye-popping difference-makers who rack up a ton of overpowering blocks in which they blast their defender to the ground or far off the ball.

    Each player’s percentile ranking among all qualified guards in pressure percentage was combined with their percentile ranking in PFF’s pass blocking grade to form a pass protection score. That pass protection score was averaged with each player’s percentile ranking in PFF’s run blocking grade to form an overall score by which the group was ranked.

    Center
    Let’s start at the center position.

    [​IMG]

    Here is a look at the career snap counts by position for each player, showcasing positional versatility.

    [​IMG]

    For comparison, Connor McGovern’s numbers on the above chart would be: 2nd percentile pressure rate (5.5%), 10th percentile pass blocking grade (42.7), and 71st percentile run blocking grade (71.0) for an overall score of 38.7. However, it’s worth mentioning that McGovern progressed greatly as the season went on, as we will get into below.
     
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  2. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Takeaways
    A Ben Garland reunion seems interesting
    Garland will soon be 33 years old, but as a career backup, he does not have much mileage on his tires in the NFL, logging just 15 career starts.

    Over the past two seasons, Garland started eight regular season games at center for the 49ers and new Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. He also started at center for all three of San Francisco’s 2019 playoff games, allowing two pressures (0 sacks) and committing no penalties over the three-game run to the Super Bowl.

    Even though he only offers a small sample size of 11 starts, Garland was largely solid for San Francisco. He allowed only 10 pressures (including just one sack) over 399 protection snaps, a rate of 2.5% that falls below the 2020 positional average of 3.1%. In the run game, Garland posted the seventh-best PFF run blocking grade among centers (including the playoffs) in the 2019 season (73.1) and the 11th-best in the 2020 regular season (72.4).

    Perhaps LaFleur pushes Joe Douglas to get a familiar veteran in on a one-year deal to help implement his offense?

    Plenty of decent options
    If the Jets do indeed want to go the “move McGovern to guard” route, there are plenty of decent center options to allow them to do so.

    Seven of the 12 players in our rankings posted a score above 50.0. Corey Linsley is elite, while Garland, Austin Reiter, Ted Karras, Tyler Shatley, and Daniel Kilgore all had respectable seasons. Patriots center David Andrews was also a fine starter in 2020, but he was once among the position’s biggest stars until missing the 2019 season with a pulmonary embolism. Should New England let him walk, Andrews could be a steal for his new team if he can recapture his former peaks.

    Alex Mack is another stopgap option worth mentioning. While Mack is going to turn 36 years old during the upcoming season and has seen his overall PFF grade decline in three consecutive seasons, he has a few Jets connections from his time in Atlanta. Mike LaFleur shared one season with Mack in 2016, a campaign that resulted in a Super Bowl trip. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich coached against Mack in practice throughout all five of Mack’s seasons with the Falcons. New Jets quarterbacks coach Greg Knapp was in Atlanta from 2018-20.

    In 2020, Mack dipped to a subpar level in pass protection, but he was still an upper-tier run blocker.

    Ultimately, in my humble opinion, the Jets would be best-served leaving McGovern at center and focusing on the two spots beside him. McGovern was a top-10 center in his first year playing the position for the Broncos in 2019, and in 2020, he eventually got back to that level after a rocky start. PFF ranked McGovern as the league’s seventh-best center from Weeks 9-17.

    McGovern looked effective from a purely physical standpoint throughout the season. It was the mental aspect that he struggled with – a strange development since he thrived in that facet of the game in 2019. While his struggles in this area cannot be completely blamed on his surroundings (some of his mistakes were just not excusable), it is worth noting how bad the Jets’ guard play was. McGovern was certainly hampered to some degree in the blitz/stunt pickup department by the players next to him.

    Considering his improvement throughout the season and the extremely poor quality of the guards beside him, the Jets should be able to feel comfortable about McGovern turning around his awareness and pickup ability in 2021 if they can get some better talent at the guard spots.

    If McGovern can get his mental game back to where it was in 2019 and combine that with the athletic run blocking and proficient one-on-one protection he showcased in 2020, he can be one of the best centers in football.

    Tackle
    Let’s take a look at how the free agent tackles stacked up. There are a handful of highly intriguing options on the board that could entice Douglas to dip his toes into the market.


    [​IMG]

    Here is a look at the leaderboard with career snaps by position thrown in.

    [​IMG]

    For comparison, George Fant’s numbers on the above chart would be: 29th percentile pressure rate (6.5%), 33rd percentile pass blocking grade (61.8), and 20th percentile run blocking grade (57.2) for an overall score of 25.8.
     
  3. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Takeaways
    Taylor Moton, Daryl Williams cause the conundrum for Douglas
    Inciting the possibility of the Jets moving on from Fant are two players: Carolina’s Taylor Moton and Buffalo’s Daryl Williams. Two elite right tackles, the Jets have to at least consider giving them a look.

    Moton, who will still only be 27 years old when the season begins, has been a stud for the Panthers since being selected in the second round of the 2017 draft. Never missing a game in his career, Moton has posted an overall PFF grade of 76.0 or better in all three of his seasons as a starter, culminating with a career-best 81.2 grade in 2020 that ranked fifth-best among right tackles.

    Pass protection is Moton’s forte. He has given up 77 pressures on 2,069 career protection snaps, a very good rate of 3.7% (2020 positional average: 5.3%). In 2020, Moton gave up a 3.0% pressure rate that ranked fourth-best among right tackles.

    Preceding Moton as Carolina’s right tackle, Williams held the spot from 2016-17. The two started opposite one another in the 2018 season-opener, with Moton at left tackle and Williams on the right, but Williams’ season-ending injury in that game paved the way for Moton to take the right tackle job, which he has yet to relinquish.

    Williams started 12 games at guard for the Panthers in 2019 before signing with the Bills in 2020, moving back to right tackle and enjoying a career season. His 79.4 overall grade ranked 10th-best among right tackles. Like Moton, Williams made his money in the passing game. Williams’ 80.0 pass blocking grade ranked third-best among right tackles while his allowed pressure rate of 3.1% ranked one spot behind Moton for fifth-best at the position.

    It might make sense for Douglas to put his name in the cap for one or both of these players.

    Kelvin Beachum reunion, anyone?
    Beachum kicked over to right tackle for the Cardinals in 2020 and had himself a nice year at 31 years old, ranking among the best pass-protectors at the position (77.4 pass score on our chart) and putting together his third season out of four in which he started all 16 games. He remained a liability in the run game, however, a weakness that will never go away at his relatively tiny six-foot-three, 308-pound frame.

    Mike Remmers had a very similar season to Beachum, protecting well (73.7 pass score on our chart) but struggling in the run game as a 31-year-old right tackle. He remains Kansas City’s starting right tackle heading into the Super Bowl, where he will look to avenge a nightmarish Super Bowl 50 with the Panthers in which he allowed Von Miller to dominate his way to MVP honors.

    If Douglas and the Jets’ new offensive staff are really down on Fant and hellbent towards finding a new right tackle, Beachum and Remmers could be solid second-tier options should the team miss out on Moton and Williams. Neither would be a solution beyond one year, nor can either of them do much in the run game at this stage, but they both seem capable of still providing good pass protection and would surely bring a solid veteran presence.

    Beyond Moton, Williams, Beachum, and Remmers, there isn’t a right tackle worth writing home about on the free agent market, unless you’re interested in 36-year-old Demar Dotson after a season in which he played only eight games.

    One key note in Fant’s favor regarding this discussion: if LaFleur and the Jets run an outside zone-heavy rushing attack as the 49ers did throughout LaFleur’s tenure there under Kyle Shanahan, Fant’s athleticism should make him a good fit in the offense.

    Conclusions
    The decisions for Douglas at the center and right tackle positions will be among his most interesting of the offseason. With far more gaping holes across the roster – plenty of other positions simply don’t have any starting-caliber players – Douglas can easily just leave these two positions alone and focus his attention elsewhere.

    However, there are alternative avenues available that, although riskier and requiring asset allocation at positions that are far down the list of needs, might present the Jets with more upside along the offensive line than if they simply left the two spots untouched.
     
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  4. James Hasty

    James Hasty Well-Known Member

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    Our center had a shaky start but played great down the stretch as we got better play out of the guard position.
     
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  5. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

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    I think it is fair to note that McGovern did a lot better when Van Rotten was not playing next to him.
     
  6. Centiment

    Centiment Well-Known Member

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    we have to sign Looney just for the name
     
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  7. BrickcityJet

    BrickcityJet Well-Known Member

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    Not a flashy pick but, if we slide McGovern over to guard. Creed Humphries should be there for our second 1st round pick. We’d be set at center for yeaaaars.
     
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  8. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/02/05/...l-lawson/?mc_cid=d4b4160d63&mc_eid=90b98ab2f5

    New York Jets free agent profile: Cincinnati Bengals DE Carl Lawson
    By
    Michael Nania
    -
    02/05/2021

    The New York Jets badly need a threatening 5-technique defensive end, and Carl Lawson may be the best solution on the free agent market.

    Positives
    Elite pass rush production in 2020
    Despite a measly total of 5.5 sacks that will not catch the eye of the casual observer, Carl Lawson was actually one of the NFL’s most disruptive pass rushers in 2020, highlighting the misleading nature of sack totals.

    Lawson racked up a tremendous total of 32 quarterback hits, second-most in the league behind only T.J. Watt‘s 41.

    In total, Lawson was credited with 64 pressures, sixth-most among all players and fourth-most among edge defenders. Racking up those 64 pressures across 437 pass-rush snaps, Lawson recorded a pressure rate of 14.6%, which ranked sixth-best among the 91 edge defenders with at least 200 pass-rush snaps. Pro Football Focus scored Lawson with a pass-rush grade of 84.9 that ranked 10th-best at the position among all 201 edge defenders to appear in a game (96th percentile).

    Particularly, Lawson was the NFL’s most omnipresent force from the defense’s right side, where he was tasked with battling the opponent’s left tackle on a down-to-down basis. Lawson led the NFL with 63 pressures from the right side of the defensive line. Among edge rushers, the next-closest player (
    Trey Hendrickson) had 48 pressures from the right side.

    Consistent top-tier efficiency throughout career
    Lawson’s elite efficiency this past season was nothing new. On a per-play basis, he has been performing at this level since day one. The 2020 season simply marked the first time that Lawson got enough playing time to convert his high-level efficiency into high-volume production. A breakout of this magnitude always seemed to be on the horizon if he could just get enough opportunities.

    Entering 2020, Lawson had collected 119 pressures over 841 pass-rush snaps, an elite rate of 14.1% that falls just shy of his 2020 mark. He was well above the typical EDGE average (the 2020 positional average was 9.7%) in each of his first three seasons, recording a 13.1% rate in 2019, a 13.6% rate in 2018, and a 15.2% rate in 2017.

    Due to both injuries and a criminally low amount of playing time afforded to him by Cincinnati’s coaching staff, Lawson never got enough chances to extrapolate his efficiency. Over his first three seasons, Lawson averaged only 386.3 snaps per year, barely more than half of his career-high 723 snaps in 2020, which beat his previous career-high of 477 (set as a rookie in 2017). Lawson played a career-high 45.2 snaps per game in 2020 after averaging 33.1 over his first three seasons. His total of 723 snaps was a starter-level number, ranking 27th at his position.

    Finally getting a full season’s worth of playing time thanks to his improved health and a boost to his snap count, Lawson impressively maintained the same top-notch efficiency he had always been posting and had a dominant year.

    Lawson’s consistent track record of efficiency should massively increase his value on the free agent market. Teams can feel comfortable that his 2020 season was no fluke.

    Scheme fit
    Robert Saleh’s 4-3 base defense calls for a pair of hand-in-the-dirt, 5-technique defensive ends on the edges, contrary to the defense that the Jets ran under Gregg Williams, which called for stand-up outside linebackers such as Tarell Basham and Jordan Jenkins to primarily man the edge.

    In 2020, Saleh’s starting defensive ends were Arik Armstead and Kerry Hyder. Armstead played 94.7% of his snaps with his hand in the dirt. Hyder’s rate was 95.8%.

    Guys like Basham (7.4% of 2020 snaps with hand in the dirt) and Jenkins (29.5%) just won’t cut it as edge defenders in this scheme.

    Lawson fits the bill for Saleh. He played 79.0% of his snaps in 2020 with his hand in the dirt, primarily lining up as the outside right defensive end (73.6% of snaps).

    Versatility
    While Lawson is primarily a defensive end, he offers the ability to stand up and play some outside linebacker every now and then. Weighing in at 265 pounds, Lawson played outside linebacker on 21.0% of his snaps in 2020. In 2019, Lawson played linebacker on 30.9% of his snaps.

    You’ll want to keep Lawson in a 3 or 4-point stance most of the time, but it’s a nice plus to know he can stand up if you need him to.

    Age
    Lawson will turn 26 years old in June, making him the youngest player among the 43 impending unrestricted free agent edge rushers who played at least 200 snaps last year (a handful of UFA edge rushers who did not play enough to qualify, namely Takkarist McKinley and Solomon Thomas, are a few months younger than Lawson).

    In 2020, Lawson was one of only four players aged 25-or-younger to post 20+ quarterback hits, joining Joey Bosa (25 years old – 27 hits), Brian Burns (22 years old – 21 hits), and Montez Sweat (24 years old – 20 hits).

    Negatives
    Injuries
    Sandwiched between complete 16-game seasons in his rookie year and in 2020, Lawson played only 19 of 32 possible games from 2018-19.

    In 2018, Lawson played seven games until a torn ACL ended his season. In 2019, Lawson missed four games due to a hamstring injury, missing two separate pairs of games.

    Lawson remained sturdy in 2020 as he never even appeared on the injury report prior to a game.

    Run defense
    Lawson is not necessarily terrible against the run, but his track record in this phase is not nearly as impressive as his play in the passing game. Over the past three seasons, Lawson has posted PFF run defense grades of 61.1, 61.0, and 60.8 – about dead-on average for the position. The 2020 positional average was 61.4.

    The Bengals used Lawson almost exclusively on passing downs over his first two seasons. From 2017-18, only 15.8% of Lawson’s snaps came on running plays. He has seen that portion jump to a more typical level over the past two seasons. From 2019-20, Lawson faced a running play on 36.5% of his snaps. That’s almost identical to the average rate among the league’s top-64 edge defenders in total snaps played in 2020 (36.4%).

    It seems the Bengals became increasingly confident in Lawson’s ability to hold up against the run, playing a big part in his jump to a starting role in 2020.

    Lack of coverage ability
    While Lawson has his moments as a rusher from a stand-up position (2-point stance), he hasn’t shown that he can be trusted to drop into coverage. Lawson has dropped into coverage just 1.2 times per game in his career. Over 62 coverage snaps, he has allowed 12-of-13 passing in his direction for 164 yards, atrocious averages of 12.6 yards per target and 2.65 yards per cover snap.

    Penalties
    Lawson has been penalty-prone in his career. He has been called for 19 penalties over 1,882 career snaps, an average of 10.0 penalties per 1,000 snaps. That’s brutal, more than double the 2020 EDGE average of 4.5. His most common offense has been offsides, being called for six of those. He has also been hit with four neutral zone infractions and four roughing the passer calls, although he had no roughing penalties in 2020.

    Film
    Sorry, can't get the videos to show. Must be too much data.
     
    #8 NCJetsfan, Feb 6, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2021
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  9. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Contract estimate
    In 2020, the most comparable free agent to Lawson was Dante Fowler, who entered the open market in a similar position to Lawson. Fowler had just enjoyed a breakout season at 25 years old, ranking 11th among edge defenders with 67 pressures. He ended up receiving a three-year, $45 million deal from the Falcons with $29 million guaranteed. Outside of Fowler, there weren’t any edge rushers who performed comparably enough to Lawson for us to use them as a comparison.

    In 2019, Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith were the premier names at outside linebacker after a 2018 season in which they ranked 23rd and 17th among edge rushers in pressures, respectively. They were both entering their age-27 season. Za’Darius signed a four-year, $66 million deal with the Packers ($20M guaranteed), while Preston also signed with the Packers at a cost of four years and $52 million ($16M guaranteed).

    Trey Flowers was the third top-tier EDGE and the only elite defensive end on the market in 2019. He posted 64 pressures for the Patriots in 2018 (identical to Lawson in 2019), 10th-most among edge defenders. Also akin to Lawson, Flowers became a free agent as he entered his age-26 season. Flowers signed a five-year, $90 million deal with the Lions, featuring $56 million in guarantees. This might be the best comparison for Lawson’s earning potential.

    The average deal of the four comparisons above: four years, $63.3 million ($15.8M per year), and $30.3 million guaranteed. This seems like a fair ballpark estimate for Lawson if he hits the market.

    Projecting Jets’ pursuit
    Not only has the EDGE spot been one of the Jets’ weakest positions for a countless number of years, but it is also a spot that needs major stylistic retooling to match the schematic changes that will be coming alongside a new coaching staff. For that reason, there seems to be a high likelihood that the Jets make aggressive offers for the position’s biggest available names who also fit what they are trying to do schematically.

    Should the Bengals decide not to place the franchise tag on Lawson, allowing him to dip into the open waters of free agency, it would be hard to imagine that Joe Douglas and the Jets would not have a high degree of interest. Lawson is in his prime, is one of the most talented pass rushers in football (legitimized by consistent career-long efficiency), and fits the scheme that Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich project to run. Injuries are a concern, but not enough so to cancel out the positives he offers. He’s a top-tier free agent who is going to get a hefty payday.

    A huge deal for Lawson – even to the tune of over $15 million per year – appears to be a wise allocation of the Jets’ abundant cap space given their desperate need at the EDGE position.

    Will the Jets pursue Lawson? It would be surprising if not, but signing him is obviously another story. Plenty of teams will chase Lawson feverishly, and if his price gets out of hand, Douglas could fold his hand and move to the next table. In 2020, Douglas’ body of work strongly suggested that he is a “draw a line in the sand” type of negotiator. Will he break that mold and go all-in to ensure his team can get Lawson (or someone of his caliber) and fill a gargantuan hole? Time will tell.

    Rather than adhering themselves to one ideology that they refuse to move off of, great general managers are capable of operating conservatively and aggressively, feeling out their team’s current situation and modifying their approach to fit whatever is best for their franchise at the given moment. For this iteration of the Jets, the time is right to make a few splurges. The team’s cap space is as abundant as the roster is porous, and more importantly, new pieces will be needed to accommodate the transition to a new coaching staff, both schematically and from a cultural standpoint.

    It’s time for Douglas to go on a little shopping spree – and Carl Lawson is one of the shiniest items on the shelf
     
    #9 NCJetsfan, Feb 6, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2021
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  10. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/02/02/jets-2021-free-agency-ranking-the-guards-from-best-to-worst/

    Jets 2021 free agency: Ranking the guards from best to worst
    By
    Michael Nania
    -
    02/02/2021

    Ranking 20 impending NFL free agent guards from best to worst, based on an accumulation of their 2020 statistics.

    Using an agglomeration of three different key statistics, I ranked the 20 impending NFL free agent guards that logged at least 200 snaps in 2020. This is the eighth in a series of articles that will rank all of the qualified free agents at key positions of need for the New York Jets. I have already ranked 47 free agent wide receivers, 47 free agent edge rushers, 53 free agent cornerbacks, 30 free agent running backs, 28 free agent tight ends, 33 free agent linebackers and 31 free agent safeties.

    The players were ranked according to their cumulative performance between pass protection and run blocking.

    Here are the statistics used:

    Pressure percentage allowed: The percentage of a player’s pass blocking snaps in which they were credited with allowing a pressure – either a sack, hit, or hurry.

    Pro Football Focus pass blocking grade: PFF’s all-encompassing evaluation of a player’s performance as a pass blocker based on the grading of every coverage snap.

    This stat effectively conveys the true quality of a player’s pass blocking regardless of the production he allowed. If a player gives up a sack after blocking for five-plus seconds, that sack is not his fault, and the coverage grade will reflect that by not blaming him (maybe even crediting him positively if the initial block was strong enough). On the other hand, a player can boost his protection numbers by playing in a quick-release offense where he logs “pass blocking snaps” in which he didn’t actually block anyone because the ball was released quickly. These pass blocking snaps rightfully receive no credit in PFF’s grading system.

    Reps in which a player holds a rusher at bay for four seconds receive more credit than ones where he limits the rusher for two seconds, reps in which he is absolutely destroyed are knocked more harshly than ones where he allows minor penetration, reps in which nobody is blocked receive no credit in either direction … and so forth. This is PFF’s attempt at weeding out the noise of raw totals to truly approximate a player’s pass blocking effectiveness.

    Pro Football Focus run blocking grade: PFF’s all-encompassing evaluation of a player’s performance as a run blocker based on the grading of every coverage snap. Players who consistently execute their assignment at a sufficient level tend to fare well here, while players who consistently blow their assignment to allow play-disrupting penetration tend to fare poorly. The players who grade at an elite level in this area tend to be eye-popping difference-makers who rack up a ton of overpowering blocks in which they blast their defender to the ground or far off the ball.

    Each player’s percentile ranking among all qualified guards in pressure percentage was combined with their percentile ranking in PFF’s pass blocking grade to form a pass protection score. That pass protection score was averaged with each player’s percentile ranking in PFF’s run blocking grade to form an overall score by which the group was ranked.

    Here it is, 20 free agent guards stacked up from best to worst:


    [​IMG]

    Takeaways
    Brandon Scherff and Joe Thuney make up the cream of the crop
    The guard position features one of the shallowest markets in free agency, but at the very top, there are two legitimately elite options.

    Scherff and Thuney are both established stars. In 2020, they ranked as Pro Football Focus’ seventh and 10th-best guards, respectively, in terms of overall grade (84.1 for Scherff, 74.2 for Thuney). Scherff was PFF’s No. 4 right guard while Thuney was PFF’s No. 5 left guard. Thuney even filled in at center for two starts, his first action at the position since the 2016 preseason (his rookie year), and he allowed just one pressure across those two games.

    The 2020 season was no fluke for either player. They have each been ranking among the league’s elite guards throughout the entirety of their careers. Scherff has ranked as a top-10 right guard in five consecutive seasons – his worst career ranking is No. 11 as a rookie back in 2015. Thuney has been a top-7 left guard in four consecutive seasons.

    Injuries are the key differentiator between the two studs. Scherff has battled nagging minor injury problems throughout his career, playing 78 of 96 possible regular season games (81.3%). He has missed at least two games in each of the past four seasons, appearing in just 46 of 64 possible games (71.9%) since 2017. On the other hand, Thuney has never missed a start in his five-year career.

    The Jets have an abundance of cap space and an enormous hole at each of the two guard spots. It would be a surprise if they were not at least rumored to be in the running for one or both of these players.

    Pat Elflein is not a solution
    Over his six-game stint in New York, Elflein generated some support within the Jets fanbase due to some flashy highlight-reel blocks that made the rounds on social media, but those intermittent moments of brilliance masked his overall terrible level of play.

    Elflein was graded as PFF’s 11th-worst guard out of 94 qualifiers with a 48.2 overall grade. He was especially brutal in pass protection, allowing a 10.0% pressure rate that more than doubled the positional average (4.6%) and placed third-worst among qualifiers.

    Being waived mid-season as a former third-round pick in just his fourth season and then playing at a league-worst level with his new team, Elflein cannot be considered a valuable piece by any stretch of the imagination.

    Where else is there to go?
    Teams looking for a guard in free agency will be playing a game of musical chairs in which there are only two seats to be had. Those who do not have either Scherff or Thuney on their team when the music stops will be left empty-handed.

    Kelechi Osemele was on the path to revitalizing his career with an excellent four-game start in Kansas City, but his season came to an end due to a knee injury in Week 5. Osemele is one of the most accomplished active offensive linemen in the league and clearly still had some elite play left in him this past season, but he will soon be 32 years old and has now played only eight games over the past two seasons. Plus, from a Jets perspective, it’s safe to assume he isn’t itching to come back to Florham Park after how things went down the last time he was there (filing a grievance against the team).

    The same goes for Mike Iupati. Sure, it seems he can still play, but he will be 34 years old in May and has missed 27 games over the past four seasons.

    Beyond the two stars and those two injury-hampered veterans, options are extremely slim. No other player on the list outside of those four graded above the 50th percentile in both pass blocking grade and run blocking grade.

    The approach for teams dipping into the guard market in search of a long-term answer will be simple – go all-out for Scherff and Thuney and turn your attention to the draft if you go 0-for-2. There are plenty of serviceable one-year stopgaps to be had, but there are only two players who have a good shot of providing starter-quality play beyond the 2021 season.
     
    #10 NCJetsfan, Feb 6, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2021
    twown likes this.
  11. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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  12. K'OB

    K'OB 2021 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

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    Get better Guards and McGovern will look a lot better, I don't think VanRotatingDoor helped him at all, you already addressed Elflein above and it is hard to argue the point made, especially in pass protection, I think he was a lot better in the run game, but there are plenty on here that liked him.
     
  13. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Appreciate posting the articles, but a lot of these suggestions are pretty dumb. The fact that the author entertained Osemele and Mike Iupati kills his credibility. We know the deal with Osemele but Iupati has been a massive liability in Seattle and has absolutely zero place in a wide zone scheme.

    It also discusses a lot of these edge players in 2 point stances and their abilities to cover and what not which is not something that's going to exist in this base 4-3 cover 3 system. It also might technically be a five technique on the weak side end spot but it's not really the position he seems to describe.

    I'm also not sure that the author of the article recognizes that the Trey Flowers contract was absolutely awful and is killing the Lions right now. So if Lawson is anywhere near that price tag it's an even harder pass. Lawson could be a direction we go, but paying that sort of premium for a guy that's averages like six sacks over a sixteen game season would be a bad move.
     
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  14. LAJet

    LAJet Well-Known Member

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    I’m not in favor of all this non sensical changes to Center when our problem is at guard. We need to beef up the OG position and we will be fine.
     
  15. MoWilkBeast

    MoWilkBeast Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like hidden production to me. Is he fat?
     
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  16. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 2018 Funniest Member Award Winner

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    They don't get fat until the Jets sign them and they start eating pizza.
     
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  17. BroadwayAaron

    BroadwayAaron Well-Known Member

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    Never really thought he was an option anyways but:

     
  18. Cromartie's_kid

    Cromartie's_kid Well-Known Member

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    If nothing else this sucks bc it makes other wr more costly and difficult to get. Ugh.
     
  19. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Nope, not fat! As the article says, he played his whole rookie season, then missed a bunch of games in 2018 and 2019, then this was the first season he played all 16 games and played a significant number of snaps. Pressures are just as important as sacks.

    To be clear, I'm not advocating that we should sign him. I'm going to post articles like this on any FA who plays a position of need for us in this thread.
     
  20. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I don't think he is suggesting those players for the Jets or anyone. In fact, he points out why they wouldn't be a good risk. I think he just mentioned them because they're bigger, known names that some fans would migrate towards, and he was wanting to show why they wouldn't be a good option in spite of their high ranking in the stats.

    I agree with everything you said. The author is only 19 years old, but is a whiz with analytics and numbers. I just posted them here for reference sake to give one point of view. I'm going to post as many articles on FAs that are available and may be fits for us as I can find just to help stimulate discussion.
     
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