Geno Smith, embattled rookie quarterback for the New York Jets, has a league-high 20 interceptions through 13 games this season. He is keeping decent company. Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning and Jay Cutler also threw 20-plus picks to this point in a season in their careers. Stafford actually had a lower passer rating and similarly dismal Total QBR score back in his 2009 rookie season, a reminder that first-year players tend to struggle, particularly when paired with vastly undermanned rosters. Of course, some young quarterbacks never seem to recover from harrowing experiences suffered early in their careers. The fact that Stafford improved after struggling early assures nothing for Smith. The key for the Jets is to figure out how to improve their team in general and, specifically, their quarterback situation. Is Smith the long-term answer in New York? ESPN.com NFL scout Matt Williamson and NFL Insider columnist Mike Sando diagnose the Jets' problems and offer solutions. Can Smith improve? Williamson: It's time to worry about whether Smith is going to deal with David Carr syndrome. There are so many things working against him. The Jets even put Matt Simms in the game a couple of times this season, because they don't have anyone else. To give Geno the benefit of the doubt, this really should have been a redshirt year for him. He was probably less ready for Week 1 than any recent QB I can remember. He was highly productive in college running a spread system from the shotgun and throwing to small, quick guys, but he never took snaps from behind center. Everyone has a hard time as a rookie adjusting to the pro game. He had never taken the drops from under center in what is more or less a timing-, rhythm-based West Coast offense the Jets are running. I'm not saying he was a bad fit, but it's a rough transition. Sando: The Jets got the worst of both worlds this season. The guaranteed money Mark Sanchez is earning dissuaded them from pursuing another veteran, but then Sanchez suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason, putting all the pressure on Smith -- with no safety net underneath him. I was of the mind that the Jets really couldn't do much worse than Sanchez, who had pretty much been a replacement-level player. And I'm not really convinced Sanchez would be doing better under the circumstances. The Jets so clearly need a viable veteran backup. David Garrard fills some of the void in terms of what he might be able to offer as a sounding board, but he's not much of an option in terms of taking snaps to give Smith a chance to breathe a little. Williamson: I don't think the Jets are very well coached offensively, either. Smith is very athletic, but he isn't a run-first guy who is going to take off when his first read isn't there. Running is really a last resort for Smith, and that is a strength in many ways (he can be a pocket passer). But we've seen so many of these young QBs who are super athletic, and their ability to run is such a great tool to help them get through their first seasons as starters. Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick all thrived on it. The Jets have so few weapons in their offensive arsenal, but they at least have that threat with Smith's legs. Still, they never use it. They never call a QB run. At this point, it's clear that Smith is struggling, but they aren't even letting him do what he is capable of. Also, they run a lot of Wildcat formation plays with running backs; they should at least let Geno do that. Sando: We have Smith with 14 carries for 59 yards and two touchdowns on zone-read rushes. To get a sense of the bigger picture, I was conducting some research this week and discovered the Jets have gotten 50 starts this season from their 2013 draft class. That is by far the most starts any team has gotten from its current crop of drafted rookies. San Diego is second with 39, followed by Tampa Bay and Jacksonville with 37 apiece. None of those teams are exactly lighting it up. I think it's important to remember that the Jets were 32nd in everyone's power rankings coming into the season. We shouldn't be surprised to see them lose four of their last six games. It's far too early to write off Smith, but it's also clear the team needs alternatives. Finding one needs to be a priority this offseason. Williamson: I do have some questions about Smith. There was some chatter before the draft about whether he had the leadership skills to be an NFL QB. Times are tough now and he is not dealing with adversity well. Without knowing who the player might be, it would go a long way if Smith had a confidant, a guy who has been there and who can say to Geno, "I know what you are going through," and frankly someone who can play the game. They need a Kyle Orton-type veteran. Smith has all of these things going against him, but he is still very bad and inconsistent. You can't get around the fact that guys are wide open and he throws it out of bounds. There are a lot of bad decisions, a lot of turnovers that are his fault and a lot of poor pass-rush recognition. He is a rookie who has played 13 games and he never should have been in there. It would have been different if the Jets had a better team around him. Back in 2009, when Sanchez was a rookie, they had a strong offensive line, the defense was fantastic and they could win low-scoring games. Smith is too inconsistent for that to happen right now. What should the Jets' plan be for the offseason? Sando: General manager John Idzik was with the Seattle Seahawks when I was covering the NFC West for ESPN.com. Seattle was the most aggressive team in the league at churning the bottom of its roster when Pete Carroll and John Schneider started building that team. It acquired a long line of players such as LenDale White, Mike Williams, Reggie Williams, Marshawn Lynch, Chris Clemons, Leon Washington, etc. Some of those guys had zero chance. A couple of them really took off. But the point was that the Seahawks kept churning the roster. Their current right tackle, Breno Giacomini, was someone they signed off Green Bay's practice squad. They got a starting corner, Brandon Browner, in the CFL. I would think Idzik will want to be similarly aggressive this coming offseason. This roster needs work. Williamson: The Jets need to address every position on offense but running back, and even that position is not good. They had a great line with Alan Faneca, Brandon Moore, D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold a couple of years ago. Ferguson and Mangold remain, but they are not playing well at all this season. The Jets have a couple of guys who are scheduled to become free agents. You could make the case that the Jets need five new starting linemen because their two best guys are getting old and a couple of others might not re-sign. They are running a 3-4 defense without having good pass-rushing outside linebackers. They could use help there. Plus, the secondary is terrible -- and it sounds as if Antonio Cromartie could be gone for salary-cap reasons. Sando: The Jets do have needs everywhere, but upgrading the offensive weaponry has to be the No. 1 priority as they seek to get better value from their quarterback investment. Every QB needs weapons and the Jets simply don't have enough of them. I know you've mentioned how much better Smith seems to have played when receiver Jeremy Kerley has been on the field. This is true. I took it one step further to see what Smith's numbers look like when both Kerley and tight end Kellen Winslow have been on the field. With both on the field, Smith has completed 42 of 69 passes (60.9 percent) for 517 yards with two touchdowns, two interceptions and a surprisingly high 66.8 QBR score. Without either on the field, Smith has completed 34 of 74 passes (45.9 percent) for 460 yards with zero touchdowns, seven picks and a 3.6 QBR score. That doesn't mean Smith is in the clear if the Jets can keep Kerley and Winslow on the field, but it does paint a compelling picture for his ability to succeed with a couple of playmakers. Williamson: Besides their defensive line, the Jets more or less still need help at every position. And Smith hasn't proved capable of elevating the play of those around him. He needs a strong supporting cast. Simply put, he does not have it right now. One offseason probably will not provide Smith and the Jets with ample talent to take the next step. This is going to be a multiyear process. http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10125470/nfl-diagnosing-new-york-jets-problems
Geno is a different QB when his best two weapons are on the field. Eric Allen was on NFL AM and he had a telling stat where Geno is 6-3 with Kerley in the lineup and 0-4 without him playing. A couple of PLAYMAKERS are a must for the JETS this offseason.
This quote below really puts things in perspective. The one good thing I can say about this is Idzik is really going to build this roster through the draft. He still has a lot of Tanny baggage to deal with after this season like Sanchez, Tone and a few other cuts. These Idzik draft picks are also getting a ton of playing time as rookies. Add a few key FA signings of young vets and you've got the makings of a strong team. "To get a sense of the bigger picture, I was conducting some research this week and discovered the Jets have gotten 50 starts this season from their 2013 draft class. That is by far the most starts any team has gotten from its current crop of drafted rookies."
Truth , it's so refreshing. Now maybe Idzik gets out there and gets this fixed so that we can quit wearing out the defense.
Honestly that was my thought this article is filled with kindergarten dribble with no examples to back up their claims. I've seen way better journalism on turnonthejets.com and they get paid way less. I guess they make money off the average fan who finds this garbage to be gospel.
Crap? I don't like ESPN at all, but this is a spot on analysis of the Jets imo. The only problems they left out are Woody and Rex. The only thing I disagree with is the point where they say the Jets aren't getting very good Offensive Coaching. The only point they give by way of backing that up is saying that the Jets don't have Geno run enough. That's bad because he didn't run that much in college. He's fast and pretty good, but doesn't feel all that comfortable doing it. Besides, what if he had run more then gotten hurt like RGIII after about 5-6 games. He's have missed the opportunity to learn and develop his rookie year, the Jets wouldn't have a very good idea of what they had in him, and who would have started?
there should be a panel on how deep ESP-NE's problems are, what with them being the official biased flagship network of their hometown Patriots and all.... After all, they were the stupid jackasses that had the NY Jets ranked as the 32nd and worst team in the NFL going into the season and called them a "virtual expansion team" and yet, with a rookie QB those same Jets are still mathematically alive for the postseason with only 3 games left to play... An internal investigation and mass head rollings are needed at ESP-NE to at least make some attempt to restore any sort of credibility unless they don't really give a crap and are happy wearing Patriot logo underwear under their suits and waving Pom Poms every day
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/points-for-and-against/2013/ Jets have the 30th point differential in the entire league. We have been outscored by 111 points. Im not sure what this exactly means considering we are 6-7 but it does show we have won by little and lost by a lot.
That article was wrong about so many things.This is a multiyear process?The Jets can fix this offense in the draft and FA in one off season.We are expected to have massive cap room this offseason witch he failed to mention.I still feel like all holes will be filled this offseason one way or the other
That is correct. The funny thing is that had Sanchez not gotten hurt, these same ESPN insider guys would be writing how the Jets have problems because they weren't able to get a good look at Geno this season to know whether or not to draft a QB next spring. I'm getting bored with all the over-analysis that is todays coverage of professional sports. So many outlets, so many writers, so many tweets, so many guys dying to make an impression to get "clicks"...
What this means is that Rex Ryan should be getting some coach of the year votes because you don't play near .500 all season with the kind of roster he's had without doing a hell of a coaching job. It also means Idzik should be getting a few exec of the year votes. Jets won two games they had no business winning against New Orleans and the Pats because his hand-picked and much coveted RB acquisition Chris Ivory had dynamic controlling games and helped the Jets maintain their balance. Santonio Holmes and Kellen Winslow were out for both games...
This is hard for me to say, because Kerley is my favorite skill player on the Jets. But those numbers deserve further analysis. For starters, Kerley got hurt in the Saints game. So he started that game, and that is part of the 6-3 referred to above. But he hardly can be said to have been a factor in the game. The nfl.com play by play shows he was targeted twice with only one catch for 1 yard. http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/20131...ab=analyze&recap=fullstory&analyze=playbyplay Meanwhile Salas and Sudfield were the two top receivers, and the Jets were behind when Kerley got hurt, and came back without him. So subtract that win from the quoted analysis. Second, it is hard to imagine arguing that Kerley would have made a difference in the three straight losses after the bye. The Jets were too far out of those games to argue that. Third, Kerley returned just in time to play a team with a woeful pass D. Was his presence what made them woeful? Not if Oakland's season long stats mean anything. In other words it was great to have him back, and he did produce. But was his return the difference in the result? Even a Kerley fan like me has trouble making that stretch. The guys in the quoted article probably know less about the Jets than the average poster here. It sounds like they just quoted that stat about Kerley without having any real context. I personally think for all my criticism of Idzik that he did a great job finding Salas and Sudfield, who were instrumental in beating the Saints. And certainly Winslow being out hurt the Jets, as well. But let's not go crazy here taking stats out of context. Jus sayin...
I agree that some things were omitted that definitely should have been included, but since I don't normally read their stuff, I don't know how short/long these kinds of articles are for them or what their intentions are. Do they intend/pretend that this is in-depth, exhaustive analysis, or do they intend to keep the article shorter and just give a surface or cursory analysis? If their articles can be or normally are longer and they portray them as in-depth analysis, then yes, they deserve criticism for this article. If they have a certain length that they normally stick to, then there's not room to go into the total depth of the issues that confront the Jets. I agree with them that it will be a multi-year process to fix the team. Even with all the cap space and 10-11 draft picks, I don't see any way possible that the Jets can adequately address each of their holes/roster shortcomings. Sure, they can add a warm body to each position, but that doesn't mean it's addressed. Maybe if all 10-11 draft picks were 1st and 2nd rounders they could fix everything in one off season, but I think it is entirely unrealistic and naive to think that everything will be fixed after the coming off season. Will the team have a lot more talent, and will a lot of needs be able to be addressed? Most certainly. Unless Idzik's better than I think he is and can be very creative, I just don't see how they can fix everything this off season. The Jets have a pretty lengthy list of FAs in 2014, including most, if not all of the CB depth. (http://www.spotrac.com/free-agents/nfl/new-york-jets/ also http://nfltraderumors.co/2014-nfl-free-agents/ ). That list is a good bit lengthier than the one Jason has on the NY Jets Salary Cap site. It looks as if he hasn't updated his list to include all the players the Jets signed during this season. I think he has players on both the 2014 and 2015 FA lists who haven't been with the team all season. Let's say they use up most of their cap space by extending Wilk, re-signing the following of their own FAs: Cumby, Folk, Douzable, Colon, Aaron Berry, Howard, Lankster, Walls, Pace, Bellore, McIntyre, Mauga and Cribbs, then sign Shaun Hill, Brandon Pettigrew, Jon Asamoah, and Golden Tate. I'm not sure how much cap space that would leave them. (I'm not very good with the cap, but in another post later I'll attempt to try to come up with possible cap numbers, $ figures that it may take to re-sign their own players that they intend to keep, and how much that will give them to sign FAs.) Then let's say that the draft shakes out something like what I posted below. (For determining the number of picks and in what rounds they will fall, I used the article BGA: 2014 Draft Picks Rundown on the JetsBlog http://thejetsblog.com/bga/bga-2014-draft-picks-rundown/. I think it may be generous in getting 12 picks with two 4th rounders and two 5th rounders, but for arguments' sake, let's roll with it. Rd. 1 - WR Rd. 2 - FS Rd. 3 - TE Rd. 3 - DE/OLB Rd. 4 - QB Rd. 4 - WR Rd. 5 - RB Rd. 5 - OG Rd. 6 - CB Rd. 7 - FS Rd. 7 - ILB Rd. 7 - P I'm not saying that should be what's picked or the order they should be picked in, just kind of generally prioritized needs. Now between FA and the draft, Idzik will have addressed every unit on the team with the exception of the DL, and even there he's added a collegiate DE who he projects as an OLB in the 3-4 base, but who could rush the passer as a DE in a 4-3 front. Sounds pretty good, but not all those players will pan out, especially from the 4th or 5th round on. Some of the earlier picks could possibly bust or at least take a season or two to develop, yet not be considered "projects." If the Jets decide to part ways with Cro and/or Harris to add more cap space, then that will create some additional holes and mean that they'd need to sign FAs or draft players at those positions to address those holes. If they cut Sanchez, Holmes, and maybe Landry plus a few more players, they'd gain some additional cap space, but again have more holes to fill. Even if those players stayed, many aren't that good, so the team will still have areas of need.
It may be a stretch to suggest that Kerley is the main reason the JETS win games, but when he is on the field Geno looks better, more comfortable, his QBR is respectable, and the JETS have a better chance to win. I'm just saying that with reliable players on the field in Kerley and Winslow goes a long way for the JETS and how Mornhinweg calls plays. The need for offensive talent is a MUST...that's what I took from the article.
I think that's a bit optimistic. We could barely fill the OL and WR needs alone in that timeframe. We'll certainly be competitive if we pick well in the next draft though.
The subject here is really about how much Smith benefits from Kerley, and also Winslow. WHile I would not say Smith overall had a very good game against the Saints, it was a win seen by many around here as a sign that the Jets could have been playoff bound. They in fact were down in the first half before taking the lead and keeping it in the rest of the game. But that success against a playoff team was achieved with Salas and Sudfield being the two leading receivers. From this I not only do not mean to dispute the argument that the Jets have not won when Kerley was not playing. I also do not think that receivers such as Salas and Sudfield PREVENT Smith from succeeding. Because they did not, and do not. I am fine with people being optimistic that Kerley's return can help the Jets. I am a Kerley fan and think so, too. But I am highly doubtful that Kerley should be looked at as a cure for Smith's problems going forward.
A win is a win. And the reason for the large differential is that we have a rookie QB who isn't good enough yet to play from behind, so he presses, and the deficit in games snowballs until we're getting blown out. See: Cincinnati, Tennessee
