We’ve had some great FA signings, but what impresses me most is how well JD used FA to position us for the draft. He filled all the holes except those for which there are likely to be lots of strong candidates in the draft when we have available picks. Pre-FA, we desperately needed to add starters at RG, TE, WR, DE, S, and CB. (Some might argue for LB, but you could also argue that we can get by with our existing starters.) We needed depth at TE, WR, DE, and DT. That’s a lot of holes to fill. Post-FA, JD has filled most, but not all, of the starting holes. You can always upgrade, but we are now very good at for starting RG and TE, and pretty good at S and CB. For starters, that leaves major needs at WR and DE. For depth, I think we now have decent depth (again, you can always upgrade) at TE and DE, and we’re hurting for depth at DT and could use another depth option at WR. Some might argue that we suck more than I think at some of these positions, but as I see it, we go into this draft needing good starters only at DE and WR, and needing depth only at DT and WR; otherwise, we’re looking for the best upgrade opportunities available. For me, "need" doesn't just mean that I'd like to see us better -- "need" means we're going to have serious problems if we don't do something before the season begins. Not coincidentally, this draft class matches up very well with those needs right where we happen to have draft picks available. There should be plenty of excellent starting-caliber DE prospects at #4, and plenty of strong, starting-caliber WRs at #10. There are several good DT and WR depth candidates in later rounds that should be available when we have picks. Beyond that, we have the luxury of upgrading whatever position matches the best candidate available at any particular slot. Think about different routes we could have gone. Imagine if JD had gotten in line with all those who had wanted to spend big money on a star veteran WR. Even if we could have gotten one, that would have drained our cap money to the point that it may have been difficult to justify both of the strong TEs we picked up, and there just aren't a lot of great TEs available in the draft. McBride isn't worth one of our high second-round picks at 35 and 38, and I doubt he'll be available in the third round at 69. After McBride, there are some solid TEs but none of them look like sure-fire starters. So, yes, we would have gotten a very good WR, but once again Zach would be relying on a patchwork TE room. Overall, I think JD did a great job not just with strong FA signings, but strategically relying on FA to get us strong at positions where the draft would be questionable and leaving for the draft the positions where we should have no problem finding strong candidates that match our needs and available picks. I’m very excited to see what we get in the draft and to see what Zach can do with a solid OL and weapons at every offensive position.
There are multiple JD threads on the front page that this could have been posted in. All you are going to get in here are people repeating the same things they've said in all the others.
Nice post and I agree with most of your points. I would add: 1. We also have a need for a starter at DT as well as DE and Edge. 2. You are right JD did an amazing job of filling holes and now we have a lot of flexibility in the draft. 3. You are right that the deals are reasonable and not long term but the average salary per year for the 18 players signed since the start of FA is 80 million per year. That means we will be be borrowing 50 million (with additional signings to fill holes and account for injuries) from the cap the next two years to pay our backloaded salaries. Something we can afford with so many draftees on the roster. 4. FA is for filling out the roster with average players. If you look at the starting roster JD did a great job of this. They are only a few below average starters left. Wilson at QB, Rankins at DT, 2 LBs, and possibly Joyner at FS depending how well he comes back from injury. That is a pretty impressive roster before the draft with very few weak spots. 5. I don't expect our draft to be as impactful or have anywhere near the number of starters as last year with only 2 to 3 starters coming but this draft should hopefully add a lot of depth where we need it a WR and OL.
I liked almost all of Douglas' free agency signings with one exception--Flacco. He has absolutely no mobility, and if Wilson goes down I want White to get another chance, not Flacco. $ 3.5M for Flacco was a waste of money--They should have kept White as main backup and signed an UDFA to run the taxi squad. As for signing Flacco to mentor Wilson another year, that is why you have an offensive coordinator.
Basically, a very good post and I agree with a lot of it, but I disagree on a couple of points which I have bolded. First, we need a run-stuffing NT, not a 3T DT or run of the mill DT. Second, Rankins should be the backup, as he sucks vs the run and is only decent in pressuring the QB. I would have cut him to save cap space and gone hard after DJ Jones or one of the other top DTs available in FA. In terms of true NTs, I only know of 5 - Jordan Davis, Travis Jones, Phidarian Mathis, Jayden Peevy, and Eyioma Uwazurike. The latter two need a good bit of technique work, and the Jets may or may not like them. Davis' aerobic conditioning is such that he can only play a couple of downs/plays, and he needs a breather. IMO one doesn't take a backup NT in the top 10. In fact, traditionally, one doesn't even take NTs early in the draft. Davis is great, but what if the opposing team goes no-huddle and we can't substitute without burning a timeout? The opposing team could do that 2-3 times a half, and we'd have no timeouts. Travis Jones looks like the best prospect to me, as he is good vs the pass as well, but we'll have to take him in the 2nd round if he's there. Mathis could go 2nd round as well, maybe even higher than Jones. Peevy and Uwazurike will probably go in the middle rounds or later in the draft, but will the Jets think they're too raw to help this year? Uwazurike has versatility as he has played every position on the DL and done so at a pretty high level, even with his techical flaws. Even Devonte Wyatt is more DT than NT, but he could work. Looking at the rest of the DTs in the class, a number of them are 3T types and not what we need since we have Q. Williams, and that's also more what JFM and Marshall are. Many of the "top" DTs don't even weigh 300 pounds or barely weigh 300 lbs. That isn't my idea of a run-stuffing NT. I guess it depends upon one's definition of "great" as to what one thinks of the TE class. It is one of the strongest and deepest TE classes I've ever seen. Is there a Vernon Davis-type or Kyle Pitts-type freak? No, but there are some very good, TEs in this draft class who definitely have starting potential. It just depends upon the type of TE one wants. The Jets want in-line, complete TEs, those who are good blockers as well as good receivers. In the draft there's McBride, Ruckert, Otton, and Jelani Woods who meet that criteria. The others are not in-line types, but some very good receiving-type TE prospects in Lively, Kolar, Turner, and Dulcich. In terms of our needs, I think that both Ruckert and Otton are likely to become starters in the NFL and play at least at a pretty high level. Woods has a ton of potential to be a dominant TE. He's just raw.
White doesn't have the arm to be a successful backup. Flacco is older and not very good any more, but at least he still has a strong arm to keep the opposing Ds honest and off-balance. White cannot do that. He was exposed last season. He's lucky to still have a job with the Jets. The only reason he does is that he knows the system, and mostly makes good, quick decisions. He doesn't have the arm to challenge opposing Ds and keep them honest.
I'm hoping JD doesn't go shopping at Dollar General again for a FA WR. We have enough of those already. Guys that can play, but nobody that can change a game.
I think he likely will add a bargain FA WR after the draft even if he drafts 2 WRs. WRs get hurt a lot and rookie WR development is slow. A Cole type 3 to 5 million WR might be coming post draft. Unless Mimms can be that guy? But, right now Mimms is behind Jeff Smith.
GMs are not supposed to shop at Neiman Marcus or Saks Fifth Avenue or any of haute couture shops. FA is for adding solid players who are average or slightly above at a good value, not for signing topflight players. One always has to overpay when one seeks to sign topflight FAs and that's how teams wind up with salary cap issues and disgruntled players. The only time GMs should seek to sign a topflight player in FA is if they're already a contender, and have one hole that they've not been able to fill via the draft or trade, or think one player can get them over the hump and to the SB.
