I found this article when I went looking to try and find what the average draft position is for NFL starters, and this came pretty close to telling me what I wanted to know - and then some: http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round It's a couple of years old, and it's slanted toward trying to help decide what the Chiefs should've done in that draft, but the numbers are still valid IMO. There's a lot of things to sift through and chew on, which will take more than just glancing, but I think it's pretty informative. Several things I've concluded so far based on these numbers: 1. The highest success rate for drafting a starting QB is in the first round, by far: 63% of QBs who became starters were taken in the first round. Of the 122 QBs drafted in the last 10 years only 25 have been starters for at least half of their career. The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter. The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th. In the last 10 years, 38 QBs have been drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds and not one has become a starter. 2. Defensive Backs can be just as easily found in the mid to late rounds as the early rounds: You have the same success rate drafting a DB in the 7th round as you do drafting one in the 4th (11%) On average, you have the following number of DBs taken per round: 1st - 6, 2nd - 6, 3rd - 7, 4th - 8, 5th - 8, 6th - 7, 7th - 9 After you get past the success rates of the first two rounds (64% in the first, 46% in the second), there isn't a huge difference in success (24% - 3rd, 11% - 4th, 17% - 5th, 8% - 6th, 11% - 7th) DBs provide the best success potential in the 7th round versus other positions in that round. 3. Based on these numbers, it makes sense for the Jets to take a QB in the 1st round if they think he can be the answer. They should look for a OL or LB in the 2nd round. Then look for TE, DL, and then look for DB and WR. Of course these are statistical averages and have to be weighed against which players/positions are actually available and what their needs are at that point, but I found it interesting, and I'm sure everyone here will find their own interpretations which I'm looking forward to reading.
Here's a piece of that article that lays out the numbers in a pretty concise table: Historic Success Chart The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%) 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%) 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%) 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%) 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%) 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%) Happy number crunching!
This is basically on target with the caveat that the authors did not study the 2nd round QB's closely enough. Top 4 or not starting except for Osweiler who is not a quality starter.
Is Mac working with a 27% chance of success with Hackenburg? Maybe...if they played the kid more we would know for sure
Well below 27%. One guy is still starting taken in the 37-64 range out of 10 drafted since 2007. A couple of other guys started a couple of years before becoming backups (Henne, Geno). Garoppolo might turn into a long-term starter but Osweiler is probably a backup, like Chad Henne and Geno. The main point being no stars out of the 2nd round later than 36 during the 10 seasons. I see 33-36 as an extension of the 1st round, because the very bad teams are still picking. Then things get tight for QB's because if the bad teams said no twice the guy is probably not all that, with a few exceptions. Draft success out of 33 to 36 the last 10 years is 2 for 4 with Carr and Dalton both going strong and Kaepernick on life support after prioritizing social-causes over his career.
So, if Macc thinks he needs a QB, and he believes one of these guys can be the one, his highest odds for success are taking him in the 1st round. At 6, he can almost have his pick probably, but if he trades down it gets trickier.
It gets trickier if he's set on one of them. If he has 2 or 3 he likes he can trade down and take whoever falls to him plus get the extra pick(s).
Thats the thing. I feel like a guy like Kizer could drop to somewhere in the late second early third and could have as much a chance at success as the other guys. But again, I dont see how any of these guys are a certain improvement/upgrade over Petty/Hack. Its question marks all around.
2014 all over again, maybe slightly lower talent level. Every time I look at Trubisky a voice starts screaming "GABBBERT! GAAAABBBBBEEERT!!!" in my brain.
Trubisky scares me on two levels. One, I think if he joins the Jets, he'll be a miserable failure. Two, if he goes to say... Arizona or Kansas City, he'll sit for two, maybe even three years and then come in, play strong and have a good productive career with a handful of playoff appearances. Getting old sucks, getting old as a Jets fan doubly so. Sent from my KIW-L24 using Tapatalk
Smart teams should focus on DB and RB in this draft. And the Jets are fortunate they need to revamp their defensive backfield and have 2 older runners.
Isn't all this slightly self-fulfilling? 1st rounders get their chances because they are 1st rounders. We're equating career starts with likelihood of starting games. Hackenberg would have a greater chance of success if we had reached even further and burnt a 1st round pick on him, despite being exactly the same player.
I think there's something to that. If you "reach", you feel a greater need to justify it. Maybe a little bit like a self-fulfilling prophecy. But maybe if you throw a guy into the fire because you picked him as a 1st rounder, he lives up to your faith in him. That's certainly not a "formula" that works all the time, but it might work sometimes. Of course, how do you know?
He'd certainly have greater opportunity because failed 1st round QB's get GM's fired. He'd be starting this year no questions asked, even if he redshirted last year as a planned move.
One of the many problems w. finding a QB who can have success in NYC for THIS franchise is the idea that it maybe too tall of an order to come in as a back-up & slowly work your way up the depth chart. There just is too much urgency within the fan base & media...if you show some glimmers of hope early...maybe...but otherwise...odds are much stronger in finding "our guy" in round 1. Just the way it is..
They should do a 2nd round percentage of bust. The Jets would be #1. Very surprise the OL is top's in the first 3 rounds. I would have guessed DL. I would have to think the Jets are pretty high in the DL % in the first round. Mo, Sheldon and Big Cat are their most successful draft picks. Nice post and gives you a lot to think about.
Yeah I find it hard to believe OL has that high of a percentage. Been a lot of lineman busts in the first. Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk
