Clock is ticking.

Just to give you an idea of what a fair trade would be according to the trade chart.

Round 1 Pick 6 = 1600 points

Round 1 pick 20 = 850
Round 2(20) = 380
Round 3 (20) = 170
Round 5 (20) = 32
2016 Round 2 = 170
Total =1602

Now if QB is highly valued, there are many competitors trying to trade up or a team is desperate the value would go up like what happened with RG3. If that is the case Philly and anyone else would be trying to get to number 2 not 6. But if, Mariota is a risky project with few if any that want to trade up for him, his trade value may not be very great. Given what we know at this time about Mariota and your scenario that he lasts to six the trade value chart is probably reasonable if not a bit optimistic.

 

That offer seems a little light considering that we are talking about a QB.

Their first and second round picks in both 2015 and 2016 would be the least they would have to give up IMHO.

 

I would take both their 1st round picks and 2nd round picks for this year and next in a heartbeat.

 

It all depends upon how much mariota is valued. To get more than the trade chart we would likely need multiple teams wanting to trade-up. But then again if Mariota is valued highly he would not last to 6 and the Eagles would trade up to2. But at this point Mariota does not seem very highly valued and there does not seem to be a great demand. If that stays the same I would bet we would get less than trade chart value. But then again that could change if other teams like the Rams, Bears and anyone else gets involved. It is still very early. At this point its possible Mariota's stock rises and he goes number 2 but its also possible his values drops and he goes in round 2. Recall at this point last year everyone had TB going number 1 and he ended up 1 pick form round 2. At this point 2 years ago Geno was a top 5 pick and he ended up 39. Mariota shares characteristic with those QBs in that he has flaws, is a project and is far from a sure thing. It's entirely possible if the Eagles want him they just need to wait and take him at #20 or even trade back and take him later. In other words its still too early to say what the demand for Mariota will be or even where he will be drafted.

 

Do teams actually use that draft value chart?

I would ask for a 2015 second and third, 2016 first and third or fourth.

 

You take the franchise QB.

You don't give the franchise QB to another franchise.

Regardless of the ransom.

All the OTs and WRs and RBs and OLBs and CBs and TEs and OGs and DEs and NTs are not more important than the QB.

But sure, trade the QB pick and be the Jets for the next 10 years.

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No, not any more.

It's antiquated.

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If the Jets really like Mariota, they won't trade him away. Hence why I think Philly may try and leap frog us.

 

Did anyone see the Eagles play a game last year? They are not a QB away, that talk is such nonsense. They are a defense away, their QB situation is far better than their defense.

 

If there is you believe that there's a 50% chance Moriata can make it then you 100% need to take him yourself.

 

Scenario 1 I want 3 1sts, 2015, 2016 and 2017. That gives the Jets ammo to trade up in either of the next 2 drafts to get a QB they want. Example: the Jets go 8-8 next year and there's a really good top 5 prospect in the 2016 draft. They can trade their 16 pick plus two more 1sts (Eagles 2016 + 2017) to go get the guy and still have a 1st in 2017 and 2018.

Scenario 2 3 1sts.

It really shouldn't be a hard deal to make if the Jets are willing to trade the pick at all and Kelly really wants Mariota. The draft trade value chart says the 20 is worth 850, the Eagles 1st in 2016 is worth 500 and the 1st in 2017 is worth 250. That's 1550 for 1600 and the Jets get the future flexibility in return for taking the risk that the Eagles picks are actually below the 16 and therefore worth even less.

I don't trade Mariota for the 20 plus additional picks this year. There's no certainty of great value there. 3 1sts you have that certainty even if the math is a bit strange due to the halving for each year out.

 

It's hard for me to say from an Eagles/Chip Kelly perspective, but if he truly believes this team will be a Super Bowl contender with Mariota, then giving up their 1st, 2nd, 3rd/4th, additional 1st or 2nd in 2016, and Nick Foles is worth it.

For the Jets, the beginning of the question of who do they like more as a prospect now and down the line: Nick Foles or Marcus Mariota? Then you have to factor in Marcus Mariota vs. Nick Foles PLUS several other players and possible key pieces to this team going forward. So they have to like Mariota considerably more than Nick Foles.

 

Their are now more charts than the Jimmy Johnson Dallas draft pick value chart. A Harvard study of actual draft results at a pick came up with a different value for each pick. I think his name was Meers. According to that valuation their is less spread between picks. In this instance pick 6 = 342.4 pts pick 20 = 240.2 with pick 52(second rd) = 144.2 Often times now trades come in-between the two values unless someone really wants a player. If Kelly really wanted Mariotta, it would make sense for him to move ahead of us since we also need a QB. Why wait and see if he can meet our demands vs going above us and knowing he gets his guy? For the demanders of three firsts or two ones and two twos etc a team above us would probably take less. I think if you want to gain for the future, swap firsts and get a third this year and next years first.

 

Yeah, this is ridiculous..Idzik had 19 picks over two years, how did that work out? Take the fucking QB and hope for the best.

 

There is only one answer to any question.

To every question.

You take that QB.

Or you be the Jets for the next 10 years.

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