I wrote up this mock draft late last week, and haven't had time this week to review it based on any additional information or rumours over the weekend, but she'll be right. While I did look at need, one of my heavy biases in this was whether or not a team scheduled a visit with the player. I put more weight in multiple visits, as well as private visits. While it doesn't always match up, for example the Ravens taking Marlon Humphrey, I figured it would be a good way to guess picks. The main inflection point where I could see things totally veering away from this is who trades up for a QB. In this one, I had the Cardinals trading up to 10 to pip the Dolphins and Bills, but there is definitely scope for the Bills to trade up with their draft capital to grab someone as well. I also had the Chargers stocking up on future picks / 2nd rounders for this draft, as their pick never really aligned with value based on the visits they scheduled. --- 1. CLE - Sam Darnold - QB I think they go with the consensus top QB prospect in the draft, rather than the Allen project or Barkley. 2. NYG - Saquon Barkley - RB Barkley is there for the taking, and they take him. Best prospect in the draft. 3. NYJ - Josh Rosen - QB Jets traded up for a QB, and land one of the top 2. He's the most NFL ready of the bunch, and seems like a good match for Bates. 4. CLE - Bradley Chubb - DE Can't value pass rush high enough. With Barkley off the board, the Browns grab a potential game changer on defense to match with Garrett. 5. DEN - Josh Allen - QB I think The Senior Bowl may have swayed them on this pick. Between him and Baker really. 6. IND - Quenton Nelson - OG Surely the Colts smarten up and try to improve Luck's protection further? With Barkley off the board, they can grab a solid RB in the 2nd with their multitude of picks to keep the pressure off their QB. 7. TB - Minkah Fitzpatrick - S Too good for them to pass up, and they need help on the back end. 8. CHI - Roquan Smith - ILB I was thinking maybe Calvin Ridley here, but Roquan Smith would be great to pair with Trevathan. They swoop in just before the 49ers can. Arguably one of the best defensive players in the draft. 9. SF - Tremaine Edmunds - OLB SF still get one of the two LBs they're interested in. This is where I could see the Bills making a jump up for Mayfield if they liked him enough. 10. ARI (Trade with OAK) - Baker Mayfield - QB First trade of the draft. Cardinals move up to get the QB they want, ahead of a waiting Miami and Buffalo. 11. MIA - Vita Vea - NT With the loss of Suh, this is now a need position. Plus, Tannenbaum. They still have Tannehill to build around, and I'm not so sure they've given up on him. 12. BUF - Denzel Ward - CB Best CB in the draft. Missing out on the top tier QBs, they can potentially nab one with their next pick, or in the second round. 13. WAS - Da'Ron Payne - DT Redskins need help on defense, and shoring up the interior of their defensive line will help a lot. 14. GB - Derwin James - S Best player on the board at this spot. Packers hosted a private visit for him, and supposedly have him graded pretty high. 15. OAK (Trade with ARI) - Maurice Hurst - DT Solidifies their interior. One of the few first rounders that Oakland privately visited with. 16. BAL - Lamar Jackson - QB It's hard to pass up on a QB with his upside, especially given how poorly Flacco has played since his Super Bowl win. 17. CIN (Trade with LAC) - Mike McGlinchey - OT The Bengals trade up with the Chargers to grab a book end tackle that they've worked out extensively. 18. SEA - Leighton Vander Esch - ILB Pre-draft injury concerns may drop him down, but he is a highly athletic player who may fit the Seahawks D. 19. DAL - D.J. Moore - WR Dallas get a WR to replace Dez. A toss up between him, Ridley, and Sutton. 20. DET - Isaiah Wynn - C/OG/OT The Lions continue to improve the line in front of Stafford. They have Wesley Johnson as a potential Centre, enough said. 21. WAS (Trade with LAC from CIN) - Derrius Guice - RB Chargers trade out of the first round completely and accumulate another second round pick this year, and future picks (1st round and maybe a late pick?). Redskins get a RB to give that backfield a threat finally. 22. BUF - Mason Rudolph - QB Bills grab a project QB, will rely on McCarron for this year. 23. NE - Rashaan Evans - ILB Patriots seem to like grabbing defense in the first round, and I doubt this year is any different. They like this player, and know he probably won't be there by their 31st pick. 24. CAR - Calvin Ridley - WR Panthers rush up to the podium with this wide receiver still on the board. 25. TEN - Sam Hubbard - DE The Titans bolster their pass rush. 26. ATL - Harold Landry - DE Falcons get a steal here. 27. NO - Courtland Sutton - WR Drew Brees gets another weapon to play with. 28. PIT - Justin Reid - S The Steelers solidify the secondary with a high potential safety. 29. JAX - Orlando Brown - OT The Jags get an amazing talent to strengthen the ride side of their line, hat could shift to OG if need be. 30. MIN - Connor Williams - OT Offensive line help to keep their new shiny Cousins upright. 31. NE - Joshua Jackson - CB Hard for the Patriots not to take the value here. 32. PHI - Ronnie Harrison - S Fills a need.
With the Schefter report from this morning about Baker and the Browns, I'm hoping the Browns take Barkley #1 then trade up from 4 to 3 to get Baker. Jets get a 2nd round pick out of it and draft Rosen. Meanwhile Jets fans will boo and I will smile.
The Packers getting Derwin James at #14 would be the steal of the draft, and help their secondary immensely. The Panthers need a WR, but the local papers are speculating that the Panthers will take TE Hayden Hurst. They supposedly love him, and with Olsen's future with the team up in the air, they could go in that direction.
Schefter tweeted today about the Browns interest. Yesterday a scout on the Gang Green Nation podcast said Scott McCloughan was pushing Dorsey hard to take Mayfield with number one. I have to wonder if its not all smoke trying to get the Jets to give them assets to move up and Darnold is the guy they really want. ✔@AdamSchefter Just to add a bit more murkiness to top of draft: one NFL executive said this morning that Baker Mayfield is “definitely” in Cleveland’s conversation to become the No. 1 overall pick. 8:03 AM - Apr 24, 2018
Thanks! That would make me sick, but wouldn't surprise me at all. The only thing I find hard to believe is that Dorsey would have to be pushed to take Mayfield #1.
I really hope that Rosen is our fall back option if Mayfield is gone when we pick. Losing out on both Mayfield and Rosen is what would really depress me. I would be very happy with either. That half hour waiting for the Browns and Giants to pick is going to be nerve racking. I am guessing the Browns and Giants will take all 15 minutes but the Jets get their pick in right away.
Possibly! I feel like they'd try to trade down if they were into Hayden, or move up in the second round. It'd take some serious love to pull the trigger in the 1st in my opinion.
I tend to agree with you. The local media may be no more knowledgeable than Mehta and Cimini are. That said, Hurst is very polished, mature and has great hands. I think he either dropped only 1 pass or no passes in college.
If he were a better blocker, I'd understand them pulling the trigger that early. Otherwise, he'll be sitting behind Olsen collecting dust for at least a year, barring injury. Him being in on 2 TE sets would probably tip off the pass, unless they're confident they can improve his blocking over the offseason / pre-season. Apparently he also has a lot of tells in his game which tip off defenders. Is that something that can be cleaned up easily? It wouldn't be the worst pick, but I don't know that it would help them at all for their 2018 campaign. 2019 maybe if Olsen doesn't re-sign. Are they trying to make a push this year, or looking to maintain success long term? I feel like Kuechly is one or two concussions away from retirement at this point, and losing him would really reduce their chances. Ridley would give them a polished receiver who could at the very least start in the slot this year and give Cam a reliable outlet.
I remember reading that about the "tells" in his route running. I have no idea if that's something that can be easily fixed or not, but it's something he could use to set up defenders. As I said earlier, I agree with you that they need a WR, and one that is different than Funchess.
Nice job..if you have not seen Josh Jackson CB from Iowa play, he is a long ball hawking corner. Not the fastest but great tape. I believe he will go in the 10 to 15 range.
If the Browns select Barkley, the Giants select either Chubb or Darnold, or trade down. Why would the Jets trade down from #3 to #4 and risk losing the QB they covet to the Browns for a mere 2nd rounder, when they were willing to trade 3 2nd rounders to move up 3 spots. The Browns can say they want Mayfield, and maybe the Jets don't want him, but the Jets can't trust that the Browns will pick who they say they want to move up for.
