CHFF: The eternal mystery of Draft Day, ie Why you shouldn't draft a WR in the 1st

mst3000 · Apr 21, 2008

An interesting article from Cold, Hard Football Facts.com on the seemingly high bust rate of 1st round WR's. Check out the article itself for the player lists (the grid format doesn't post well)

CHFF said:

The eternal mystery of Draft Day
Cold, Hard Football Facts for April 21, 2008

There are eternal mysteries that have defied mankind through the millennia.

Are we alone in the universe? Is there a divine power? And why do NFL teams trip over themselves each April in a race to draft first-round wide receivers when they go belly-up faster than the lake fish of Chernobyl?

We're fairly certain humans will uncover the secrets of their existence long before we football-loving trolls figure out why NFL teams are so fascinated by wide receivers in the first round of the draft.

Here's the five-wide set version of the problem:

ONE ? Teams are inexplicably blinded by wide receivers. Maybe it's the speed, the grace or the gold-capped teeth. But in the 12 drafts since 1996, NFL teams have snapped up 51 wide receivers in the first round ? making it the single most frequently drafted position in the first round. More so than with running backs, tackles, defensive ends or even quarterbacks, NFL teams come to the odd conclusion that their No. 1 pick is best spent on a wide receiver who is likely to fail.

TWO ? The problem is only getting worse. If anything, the passion GMs have for wide receivers is accelerating, with 19 first-round wideouts nabbed in the four drafts from 2004 to 2007. Of those 19, only Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald has truly lived up to the hype.

THREE ? Teams grossly over-estimate the impact a wide receiver can have on a team. If you can name a wide receiver who had a sudden impact on the fortunes of his team, you'll be the first. The truth is that wide receiver is probably the least important position on the field, virtually incapable of making an impact on the fortunes of a franchise if it has holes defensively, on the offensive line or at quarterback. Basically, the issue is this: a lot of things need to go right before a receiver even touches the ball. He can make very little happen on his own.

FOUR ? Teams need "building block" players before they need wideouts. Your offense could field Jerry Rice, Don Hutson, Marvin Harrison and Lance Alworth at the peaks of their careers, but if you have Tony Mandarich at left tackle and Ryan Leaf at quarterback, your offense is still going to suck. The truth is that teams should not draft a wide receiver with their first pick unless they have a legit No. 1 quarterback, a shutdown corner, a stud pass rusher and a franchise left tackle. Only then, after all the building blocks are in place, should serious resources be devoted to the ancillary wide receiver position.

FIVE ? Stud wide receivers fail with dizzying consistency. This is really the crux of the issue here. We might understand the grip wide receivers had on NFL teams if the position so readily produced first-round studs. But it does not. For reasons that probably have a lot to do with the qualities that make even star receivers petulant prima donnas, they fail more often than socialist economic theory.

Sure, teams have uncovered some first-round gems at the position. But for every Hall of Fame caliber Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss and Torry Holt taken in the first round since 1996, there have been four Yatil Greens, Marcus Nashes and R. Jay Sowards ... guys who crash and burn faster than your neighborhood OxyContin junkie.

The 51 first-round wide receivers taken in the last 12 years have combined for 40 Pro Bowl appearances. But more than half of those, 21 in fact, have been produced by just three players: Harrison, Holt and Moss.

To highlight the rate of failure by wide receivers, we divided the 51 first-round draft picks over the last 12 years into four categories: the outright Busts, the Underachievers, the Stars and the Hall of Famers. For the sake of fairness, we did not yet judge the class of 2007, because it's just too early to make any judgments yet about their careers. We break out those five No. 1 picks separately at the bottom.

All in all, folks, it's not a pretty picture, with the Busts outnumbering Hall of Famers 4 to 1 and Underachievers outpacing the Stars 2 to 1.

THE BUSTS (1997-2006 Draft)
This is pretty inglorious list of 16 first-round picks ? more than one-quarter of all the receivers (46) taken in the first round from 1996 to 2006. They range from the snake-bitten (such as the oft-injured Yatil Green) to the felonious (Rae Carruth, who helped kill his girlfriend while she was pregnant with his twins).

Just remember when your team drafts a wideout on Saturday, that all these players were seen as saviors of their respective franchises, only to fall woefully short of a competent NFL career. If your team spent a No. 1 pick on one of these guys, you still have regrets and ponder what might have been.

THE UNDERACHIEVERS (1997-2006 Draft)
More indicting than the outright busts is that an even greater number of players, 18 by our count, have simply disappointed by the standards of a No. 1 pick. These are guys who dabbled with a potentially great season or two, but ultimately brought little to the table.

Let's put it this way: The Redskins thought they had it all figured out when they grabbed Rod Gardner with the 15th pick in the 2001 draft. But 23 TDs in a six-year career with four teams say the Redskins had it all wrong. They're hardly alone. If your team spent a No. 1 pick on one of these guys, you had some brief moments of hope and joy, but ultimately wish they had grabbed somebody else.

THE STARS (1997-2006 Draft)
These were No. 1 draft picks well spent and what you reasonably want out of such a high selection: someone who's a consistent high-level contributor in the NFL and even makes a few Pro Bowl appearances. They number just eight by our count. But These are guys who have been fairly consistent 1,000-yard receivers and major weapons for the teams that drafted them and for other teams they may have played for later in their careers. It would be great to get a Hall of Famer from your No. 1 pick, but that's the exception rather than the rule. If your team spent a No. 1 pick on one of these guys, you have little to complain about (though you probably still would have been better off with a franchise LT or pass-rushing DE).

HALL of FAMERS (1997-2006 Draft)
No complaints here. You picked one of these fouor guys, you hit the motherload. These are once in a lifetime franchise receivers. And, interestingly enough, three of the four (Harrison, Holt and Fitzgerald) are still with their original teams, while the fourth, Moss, is fresh off a record-setting season with a team that went 16-0. Like all Hall of Famers, these guys are the exceptions, not the rule. And if your team drafted one of these guys, you're pretty happy - unless, of course, you're an Arizona fan, a team that has wasted undue resources on the wide receiver position, with the utter lack of success to show for it. Fitzgerald looks like one of the great players in the game today. But he came on the heels of two patented underachievers: David Boston and Bryant Johnson.

THE WR DRAFT CLASS of 2007
The jury's still out on the wide receiver draft class of 2007, so we'll reserve judgement until further evidence is as at hand. Dwayne Bowe, playing while shackled by the inept Kansas City offense, had the only thing close to a break-out rookie year, while Detroit's Calvin Johnson grabbed 48 passes and 4 TD. Not bad for the position, considering that Jerry Rice himself caught 49 passes and 3 TDs his rookie year.

But naturally, it was a wide receiver who provided the greatest disappointment of the Class of 2007. Robert Meachem, selected by New Orleans with the No. 27 pick last year, was the only first-rounder last year who never stepped on the field.
Click to expand...

hazmat · Apr 21, 2008

Good article. It's such a difficult position to predict. Pure speed and hands really doesn't tell the story. How fast is the guy making cuts, will he got across the middle? When he makes a break how quick is he getting out of it? You really want to build up the front 7 and offensive line early in the draft. Great wide receivers can be found in the later rounds if teams are patient.

JetFanInPA · Apr 21, 2008

Well look at our WRs:

Laveranues Coles - 3rd
Jerricho Cotchery - 4th
Brad Smith - 4th

And there are plenty of great mid-late round WRs out there today.

But I agree that we should wait until the 4th or later to go WR unless a great value is around in the 2nd.

NDmick · Apr 22, 2008

i think the key to finding great WRs is the obvious talent but the hidden key is their work ethic. That WR who trains 12-14 months out of the year, beating out the best (The Braylon Edwards commercial comes to mind, and he is a great example). The WR who is willing to outwork everyone on the field, weight room and film room is the best.

Thats why the Malcolm Kelly's and the Manningham's won't be the best- they are lazy.

Jmart · Apr 22, 2008

This article is so true. Every now and then you come across a can't miss guy like fitzgerald or calvin johnson but other than that I think you should always wait until the 3rd round when it comes the WR. Could not agree more with this post.

CHFF: The eternal mystery of Draft Day, ie Why you shouldn't draft a WR in the 1st

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