Chasing 500 homeruns, quite a feat. These are the career stats for the following 5 baseball players closest to 500 homeruns as of now. Who will get their first? and who will be a first ballot HOF? 1) Frank Thomas: 491 HR's, 1594 RBI's, 2292 HITS, .304 career average. 5-27-68, 38 years old 39 this month. 2)) Alex Rodriguez: 478 HR's, 1384 RBI's, 2108 HITS, .306 career average. 7-27-75, 31 years old 32 in 2 months 3))) Jime Thome: 477 HR's, 1312 RBI's, 1823 HITS, .282 career average. 8-27-70, 36 years old 37 in 3 months. 4)))) Manny Ramirez: 475 HR's, 1594 RBI's, 2093 HITS, .313 career average. 5-30-72, 34 years old 35 this month. 5))))) Gary Scheffield: 459 HR's, 1514 RBI's, 2412 HITS, .296 career average. 11-18-68, 38 years old 39 in 6 months.
The only guy I don't think will get it this year is Sheffield. The rest of them will hit enough to get it. Thomas is too close not to be the first to get there. Then it's between ARod and Manny for second. ARod and Manny are first ballots, the others may wait, and Sheff may never get there.
As Alio notes, A-Rod and Manny are first ballot HoFers. Thomas is an interesting case - I expect that he'll get in eventually, but not on the first ballot. I would put Sheffield at less than 50/50, in part because a lot of writers hate him. I don't think Thome has much of a chance at all. Barring injury, Thomas will of course get to 500 first. Rodriguez, Thome, and Ramirez all have reasonable shots this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a photo finish between A-Rod and Manny. Sheffield has no shot this year.
I'm surprised you say that about Thome. Of course, he's never played for a local team, so I don't know how his own hometown papers have viewed him on his stops along the way, but I always thought his personality endeared him to the media, which I think would push him in (though not on the first ballot,) as much as Sheff's personality would push him out (though personally, I don't think Sheff is a HoFer anyway, even with a better attitude.) I agree on Thomas though. He's 85% in, but not on his first year of eligibility.
If Bonds wasn't a cheater, this could be the best offensive season of baseball ever. His BS causes too much controversy though.
Why isn't Thome a hall of famer? He certainly has the numbers. And it shouldn't be forgotten that he was one of the best players on one of the best teams of the 1990s (the Indians team that made it to two world series').
500 HRs isn't the same as it ued to be so it's not automatic induction. he's a decent hitter for average but he was a terrible defensive player, a .229 postseason hitter, the closest he ever came in the MVP vote was 4th. If he made I wouldn't be a travesty but I don't think he makes it and I don't thnk he deserves it.
Well, then that begs the question, will David Ortiz ever make the HoF? Based on your position, he wouldn't. (Not that I totally disagree with your thinking, mind you.) While I may never agree with anyone who thinks he deserves an MVP award, I would truly believe it was a travesty if he didn't make the Hall. To me, the Hall, even more than the MVP award, should be about contributions to the team. Did the player make a significant enough impact, by himself, to make his team excel? There is no question Ortiz has done that for Boston. I would argue that Thome did as well. In his prime, he was one of the most feared hitters in baseball.
Honestly I don't think Ortiz has any shot at the Hall. He got good too late in his career to be able to put up the numbers.
That's what I'm saying though. The Hall should not solely be about numbers, IMO. Ortiz was the most critical reason the Sox won the World Series after 80+ years. He's feared for his ability to end games with one swing. He's one of the best powerhitters I've ever seen play. IMO, he deserves the trip to Cooperstown.
The thing is, by that logic guys like that had one or two good years and helped win titles would be in. I like the fact that it's numbers based, with a few exceptions. That's why it's the Hall of Fame, and not the Hall of Pretty Good for a Couple Years.
But there are a lot of guys who fit similar descriptions. Luis Gonzalez, for example, was the offensive superstar of the 2001 diamondbacks and had a several year period in which he was one of the best hitters in the game. Should he be a hall of famer? How about Paul Konerko, the offensive force for the 2005 White Sox, who fits the same mold? Just because someone doesn't make the hall of fame doesn't mean that we can't remember him as a great player.
Other folks got in before I could to basically say what I would have. I think that the comparisons with Ortiz and Gonzalez are quite apt. In fact, I would say that Papi will only get in (if he does) because of the Yanks-Sox-Babe Ruth curse media attention, and Thome would not get in because he never played in the big media centers. It is also the case, I believe, that 500 HRs is the new 400 HRs. It used to be that pretty much anyone who hit 400 HRs would get into the HoF (with Dave Kingman being the noted exception), and I think we're now going to start seeing hitters with 500 HRs not get in. It's just the other side of the coin of people winning Cy Young awards with 3.50 ERAs (more hitting in the 90s and 00s) and not getting into the HoF with 280 wins (much longer careers).
Ortiz can only get in if he keeps up something like this pace for a good 5 more years. if he can get 8 consecutive years of over 40 HR and over 130 RBI. he'd have a shot. he'd be at about 450-500 HR, makes him borderline, the postseason sucess would push him over. Not sure he'll play til 37 though.
I don't see how Sheffield is not going to get in. Sure, he won't be a first ballot guy because A) he's got a reputation as a surly guy and B) he's bounced around an awful lot. However, his on-field performance has been stellar. In terms of ability, a good comparison is probably Orlando Cepeda. Cepeda bounced around, too, although not as much. But the Baby Bull did bounce around enough to have had 20-homer seasons with four different teams. It took a long time for Cepeda to be inducted and this was due to a drug conviction. (He faces new drug charges after being caught with marijuana and possibly another controlled substance in his car last week.) Cepeda was probably not a better player than Sheffield. Sheffield's numbers are better at first glance. If you adjust for era, they still might be better.
Wow, suddenly Sheffield re-enters the conversation. Four homers in six games. Maybe he's not washed up? He still won't get it this year though.
