This HAS to be the biggest "No Shit Non-News News Story" I've ever seen. Did anyone really think anyone else would be in the running besides MAYBE Von Miller? http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=6438623
Carolina will not take Cam Newton with the #1 overall pick. Maybe another team trades into #1 and takes him, but I'm thinking they're going with Dareus.
All depends on what they plan to do this offseason. They really do need a new face of that franchise. Dareus is the safer pick. Dareus makes sense in a division with 3 solid QBs (so does Peterson). If you're Jerry Richardson, though, you'd better make damn sure you're going to get Kolb in a trade before you take a defender. Newton has a ton of upside and he'll keep people excited. I'm not saying it's right, but business factors into what's already a difficult decision.
you are definitely right that business some times trump football. I think it would be a mistake here though. I think Claussen with proper coaching can definitely be the face of the franchise and Dareus is a dominating player.
I talked a few Carolina fan friends off a ledge when they took Clausen last year. Thought he was a great value pick for them at that spot. The fan base was wary, and throwing him in last season as they had to didn't help matters one bit. They won't compete in that division right now, and the fan base won't wait on him. They'd wait on Cam.
I get the whole business/excitement argument for Newton but it makes even less business sense to: 1: Give a guy with checkered history and character concerns $40 MM guaranteed. 2: Draft a QB first overall one year after you took a QB with your first pick. 3: Have no team built around the QB so he's destined for failure. This sets you back even further monetarily and structurally. If they want fans and success, start winning games. Don't grab someone for the red-carpet factor. That bullshit excitement will last for 4 games and its back to square 1. If Carolina thinks he's the best player there by all means take him. The argument for: 'our fans deserve a leader so let's take this risky QB were unsure of but has potential' doesn't float for me.
1: If you try to tell me you're certain there won't be a rookie scale this year, you're a fucking liar. The "checkered history" so far has only been pinned on his father, and the "character concerns" have been bashed left and right. 2: It makes perfect business sense if the fans of the team aren't willing to give that QB a shot. It makes further sense if the new regime coming in takes the "I didn't draft him and I don't want to play him" approach. 3: Obviously you have to build a team around him. That goes without saying. What you're ignoring is the money this move will generate in the interim. Know any Carolina fans? I do. They're excited as hell to get a guy in there who could develop into a franchise QB and not ONE of them thinks Clausen can. I think he could do well in the right situation. They don't. Guess who pays the bills for Jerry Richardson? Not this guy. "Red-carpet factor"? "4 games"? You know absolutely nothing. He's not starting this season, and fans will be excited for his potential, not for some sort of glamor horseshit you just concocted. This is the most idiotic statement I've read all day, especially with that first line attached. Obviously the simplest thing to do would be to start winning games. Have you taken a look at the NFC South recently? Tampa, Atlanta, New Orleans. The Panthers aren't going to be competitive in that division for at least 2 seasons. At least. And that's if they have the right QB at the center of their team. They're going to have to find another way to appease the fan base. Potential franchise QBs do that. And again someone tries to distill the argument down to "they're only taking him for the fans". For the last time, since apparently you can't read, IT'S ONE PART OF THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS. I've BEEN asked my opinion AS a fan OF an impending personnel decision BY a team owner in one of the big 4 sports. OBVIOUSLY they're only going to take Newton if they feel confident that he can develop into a solid QB. Does he have to be the clear cut number one player on the board? No, he doesn't. If they have a reason to believe that he COULD be a franchise QB, that trumps everything else, especially for a team like Carolina. I love it when people feel a need to completely misrepresent an argument just so they can weakly counter it. Did you miss where I said "business factors into what's already a very difficult decision?" Not business dominates. Not business determines. Business factors into. Did you catch that? Or just happen to ignore it?
That's why I said he had character concern. I don't know the guy.. haven't met him. From the history involving him though: 1. There was that stolen laptop incident and failing out of Florida . Then his father extorting money with reports saying Cam was in the room (and was definitely aware of what was going on, I won't buy into the bullshit that Cam was oblivious). The little things too that I see of him like the 'Cammy Cam' juice and scouts saying he's disingenuous and scripted doesn't help. Now, I'm not saying he's Pacman Jones or OJ Simpson here, but I think the aforementioned incidents can at least validate my claim for 'character concern'. Then again, my level of concern may differ from your or the Panthers level where it starts to raise red flags. That being said, Newton is very charismatic and has shown he can lead a team to a championship thru adversity so that helps his stock a lot. This is true but it does not erase the fact that they did draft a QB with #1 pick season prior. I think they should give Clausen another shot unless the organization is completely on-board with going after Cam to replace him. IIRC, Clausen had the least time on average from the snap of the ball to the time pressure got to him and led to scramble/knockdown/sack at 3.1 seconds or so. I can't find the link at the moment but it's tough for a rookie QB to succeed when his O-Line is getting him killed and his receivers are terrible aside from Steve Smith. That's why I think you take Dareus. Build the trenches, then go out and get a polished qb. My argument is biased against Newton because I think he'll bust but I fear for Carolina picking him at #1 when the team around him is for the most part, garbage. Maybe they're banking on Cam pulling a Barry Sanders and making success out of complete shit of a team. I'm really not sure and won't pretend to know but it kind of goes with my 4-game 'red-carpet' thing I was talking about. Newton will absolutely generate excitement in the short term if he gets drafted. As soon as he takes the reigns and starts losing that excitement gets flushed down the toilet (this is assuming he's not a successful franchise QB). You don't draft a franchise QB at #1 based on potential. Well, I guess you can but it's stupid in my eyes. Kind of went about explaining this above but that was referencing the excitement and monetary result from drafting Cam. The reason the Jets have skyrocketed in the league is due to Rex's bravado, a changed culture, and most importantly: winning. People seem to be banking on Cam's star-power and charisma to lift Carolina out of the basement of the NFL in terms of relevancy but the same thing is achieved by having a winner behind center. Brady and Manning are two pretty boring/average individuals but they are the pilots of two of the most commercially successful franchises in the NFL because they win games. Ultimately, if the excitement is generated from how good of a qb Newton can be then I'm fine with it. However, I've noticed Cam's stock and excitement level skyrocket because of his 'it-factor'. I'm not trying to counter/misrepresent things here or get into a debate. I'm only saying I don't buy into the 'appeasing the fans' thing. Fans are appeased by success so you do everything in your power to achieve that. Basically if Carolina believes in their heart of hearts that Cam Newton is the best player in the draft/for their franchise then draft him at #1 and don't look back. What I'm questioning though is if Carolina is sitting there discussing his potential and isn't completely sold but drafts him because he has the 'Cam Newton factor'. If teams want Cam Newton they should just trade down, grab a second rounder, then take Terrell Pryor next year. Same player but you come out a draft-pick wiser.
I haven't met him either, but he trained through my sister's gym leading up to the combine. Dad's the problem. She had the logistical nightmare of shifting training locales and practice fields daily because he wanted to avoid reporters. Dad loved the spotlight. Brother in law trained him directly part of the time. Smoke screens. Happens every year. And really, that's why the talk of "only drafting on potential and flash" is just silly (and I'll skip the later talk of it). He's a proven winner in his first year in two different systems, the latter of which meant 50 TDs on a National Championship team out of the SEC. It's not all potential. Different coach. And calling it their #1 pick without adding that it was 48th overall overemphasizes the importance of using that pick on Clausen. We spent a much higher pick on Clemens and were perfectly fine jumping up to grab a franchise QB before he got a chance at a full season as a starter. You don't know when you'll be in position to grab a franchise QB again. Miami took the safe pick a few years ago and went with Jake Long. Fantastic LT, but they still don't have a franchise QB, and they won't be winning until they get one. Carolina is young above all else. Some of the players on that team aren't garbage, they're inexperienced. The team needs to be built everywhere. They won't compete immediately in the NFC South regardless of who is back there, which is why Cam will be given a year if he's the choice. Dareus would be a great choice, obviously, but I don't think they'll pass on a franchise QB. As far as Cam being a bust, care to give your reasons? He's a very popular choice for Bust of the Year, but from where I'm sitting, the fears have some merit but are overstated. He has all the physical tools and is a proven winner. If you're going to tell me he CAN'T pick up the pro game, why? Obviously Carolina shouldn't take him if they're expecting him to fail or if they weren't impressed by his short body of work at Auburn. They asked for his tape from Blinn as well. They're not drafting the kid just on potential. They like him because of his tools, sure, but also because he's a proven winner. And the excitement of having a franchise QB, even if he has struggled at times in his first two seasons. You don't think Sanchez has had an effect? No. People are banking on Cam generating excitement for the fan base and stopping the potential loss of fans. Huge difference. It has nothing to do with charisma. I don't find Cam to be particularly charismatic. He does his talking on the field. His dad does the talking off. Where exactly are you getting this from? Obviously the excitement is generated from how good he can be. What is this 'it-factor' of glamor and charisma you keep referring to? Again, what is this? The 'Cam Newton factor' is the same as the 'Matt Ryan factor' or the 'Mark Sanchez factor' or the 'Sam Bradford factor'. It's the allure of a winning QB with the potential to turn your franchise around. It's a good thing you don't run a team. You never put off getting a franchise QB if you're in position right now. Ever.
Why I don't think he'll be good: 1: Auburn's style of play does not work in the NFL. Which leads into.. 1a: Playcalls were very simple: they were a number. I don't think Cam has the work ethic to master a playbook, call audibles, read a defense, look off a safety, slide protection, etc etc. If he's taken at #1 and handed A LOT of money I think these problems are magnified. This is my opinion obviously, you can disagree if you so please. 2: Can not throw the ball with the best of them. Arm strength is good but his accuracy is sub-par. I haven't seen anything that shows me he can drop it into a receivers hands over coverage 25 yards downfield or rifle it into a 3-yard window between the safety and the trailing corner. Basically I think he throws it if the guy is wide-open or takes off and runs if he's not. 3: Can not succeed as a pocket passer. Does not go through progressions. Stares down receivers. See point 1a. His mobility is a strength here though, will probably look like Roethlisberger evading the pass-rush. 4: His abilities as a 'runner' in college will not translate well into the NFL. If it does, he's a huge liability for injury. I'm not going to argue these points. You can't change my mind nor will I say anything different going forward. I'm confident in calling him a bust. Also, you can say I think he's Brad Smith, which I don't, but ultimately for Cam to stay in this league he will have to take a similar career path Smith has. AKA: he will end up playing at another position or a coach will have to create something akin to the wildcat in Miami for him to be effective. He does not fit the mold of 'franchise QB' that has existed for the past few decades.
Get out of Obamerica. Dude, you watched him play one fucking game and you're knocking his accuracy? Give me a break.
His accuracy sucked in a controlled environment at the combine. Give ME a fucking break. He has no accuracy, he's just freak athlete that decided to play quarterback.
95% of college football systems today don't work in the NFL. How many of the top QBs in this draft run the spread or the pistol? I'll buy the money argument if there's no rookie scale, but where are you getting this work ethic issue from? You're just assuming with no basis that he's lazy? And you didn't trust his shifty eyes before. I see where this is going, so we'll just end that discussion. At times he's been able to fit the ball into tight coverage. He needs to work on his accuracy, which everyone recognizes. Again, though, he's been working his ass off with his QB coach and will need to develop. He's not a year 1 starter, but no one has claimed he is. Those first two lines could be used to describe our QB when he came into the league. Remember early '09? Possibly. He's also massive. I've mentioned this before, but he really strikes me as a much bigger Randall Cunningham. A lot of the same knocks coming out of college, only Cam has a much bigger frame. Randall did all right, especially once a team worked on his passing. You've made that clear. I'm not asking you to change your mind, it just doesn't seem like there's much going on in your mind to back up your assumptions.
How is the combine a controlled enviroment? He threw to a bunch of a random wideouts in front of every pro-scout in the world. At his pro day, Newton completed 50 of 60 passes and 3 were dropped. Newton was the second most efficient passer in college football in 2010 - that requires accuracy. You watched him play once. Your opinion on this kid shouldn't be taken seriously.
