So we've begun to see the bust and keeper lists come out from the various pundits who have been watching (or in some cases not) the prospects and their prospects over the weeks since the combine. I decided to take a shot at this too, since I'm beginning to get some very bad vibes about a few people. Here's who I think the first round busts most likely to happen are. Note a few of these people would be solid value in the 2nd or 3rd round but I think they're way over-hyped as first round picks. From most-nervous to least at the moment: 1. Chris Houston. Had a great combine after coming in as a projected mid 2nd round player. His 4.32 40 made everybody blink twice and the inevitable buzz started. The reality: yes, he matched up Meacham and Jarrett last season, no, they didn't burn him, yes he got called for a lot of pass interference calls for the second year in a row. His run support is considered marginal at this point and he has bad hands, resulting in a few muffed interceptions the last couple of years. Oh yeah, Sidney Rice caught 7 balls for 126 yards and a TD against him. The game where he shut down Jarrett? That was Booty's first game as USC QB and the Trojans scored 50 points anyway. 2. Adrian Peterson. Great college tailback who got severely overloaded in 2004 with 339 carries. Declined to 220 carries in 2005 and 188 in 2006 as he only managed to play in 7 games. I think Peterson is going to badly hurt the team that decides to take him in the top 10. I love his talent but the tread is already shedding and he hasn't even hit the NFL yet. Would be a great pickup late in the first round for a team planning to use him as part of a 2 back attack but he's gonna get destroyed by a top 10 workload. 3. Jon Beason. People love this guy and what I see is a great college linebacker who played inside at Miami but is projected outside in the pros. This despite being shorter than you'd like out there and not a speed merchant. In the 3rd round he'd be great value and even decent in the 2nd but for a mid first rounder I think he's going to disappoint. 4. Amobi Okoye. Still learning how to play and will be up against a tough learning curve against NFL offensive linemen a decade older than him and still in their prime. He has a ton of potential but if he doesn't land on a team capable of coaching him up he'll also be a potential failure. He's a perfect example of a player who if he landed on a playoff team with a good defensive infrastructure would likely blossom into a star but if he lands in Arizona or St Louis it could be all over before it starts. 5. Greg Olsen. Nothing screams star about Olsen. Was not a dominant pass catcher although he lead the Hurricanes with 40 last year. Does not have the size to be a roadgrading blocker either. At 6'5" and with decent speed he might turn into a weapon on the right team but he did not demonstrate that at Miami, a team that has no aversion to the vertical game. Those are the 5 projected to go in the first round that have me concerned right now, particualrly because at least two of them could be around on the Jets pick.
Disagree completely on Peterson. He's had some freak injuries in college, and they ARE a worry...but the speed and power he runs with screams feature back. He's probably the best pure RB to come out since LT in '01.
I agree about Beacon and Olsen. I look at CB's alittle differently than others do. You can't look at in game performances w/ this position as you would w/ other positions. Heck 3 years ago people on this board were bashing Dunta Robinson and Deangelo Hall,calling them workout warriors/busts based on in game performances in college. If there is a position in the draft where you ca put more precedence on physical skills than overall college performance, it is CB. This is b/c of all the different factors that affect their play. Pass rush in front of them, scheme, safety help, and competition. W/ that said I like Chris Houtson, and I do not see him as a clone of Ahmed Carroll who was not considered a first rounder till a late pro day about 2 weeks before the draft. Houston hasbeen considered one since the combine.
I disagree about several of these guys too. First off with Houston; if you look at the guys who were getting the same criticism that Houston's getting, a lot of them have turned out to be damn good players. Like Kurt said, Ahmad Carroll was a huge bust, but at the same time Jonathan Joseph, Antonio Cromartie, Fabian Washington, Dunta Robinson, and Nnamdi Asomugha all have shown serious ability. From what I've seen of him, he's lightning fast, is very strong, and plays like he knows he's better than the receiver he's matched up against. Also, add Earl Bennett and Dwayne Bowe to the list of people he shut down last year. You couldn't convince me to even consider taking Leon Hall over him. Jon Beasin played all three linebacker positions while he was at Miami, and his speed is not an issue whatsoever. He was probably the most explosive Hurricane LB since Vilma; not to mention he's a former safety that excels in both coverage and rushing the passer, so he could play strong or weakside, as well as middle LB. Okoye isn't really a potential player, just because he'll be 20 when the season starts doesn't mean he's not already a developed football player. He's an incredibly smart player, has good technique, and great natural ability. He should be able to start right away in the NFL, unlike guys like Dewayne Robertson and the host of other underclassmen DTs that bolt for the NFL after one good year, Okoye is experienced. Sounds odd at his age, but the reason he's so highly thought of isn't just potential, it's the mix of that and his ability to play in the NFL right now. As for Adrian Peterson, if anything, the injuries the past two years, especially this year, have helped him rest up his legs for the NFL. A broken collerbone doesn't really reflect to me that his legs are tired at all, and while he had some minor injuries his sophomore year, nothing that would make me truly concerned. Peterson is a workhorse back, he does everything extremely well, and is flat out one of the best three football players in this draft. Even if all an NFL team gets out of him is 7 to 8 years, I can't imagine him being anything less than dominant in that time.
I'll have to agree for the most part with Green Hurricaine. I think as far as Houston is concerned, his penalty troubles can be alieved by good coaching. Being that he'll most likely be picked in the latter half of the first round, there's a good chance that he lands on a staff with their head on straight who can teach him how to use his physical ability and already above average instincts to his advantage. I also see Beason as probably half a notch below where Vilma was coming out, and should probably be a mid-to-late 1st rounder rather than a mid 1st like Vilma was. I agree 100% on Olsen in that I think he should be a 2nd rounder at best based on his production. Hell, Calvin Johnson played on a poor team with a terrible QB, but he was still able to shine, and shine very brightly. The fact that Olsen wasn't able to make anything for himself is discouraging, because that's what you look for in a lot of first rounders.
Agree 100%. Let's remember JM came out after his Junior season. Justin has all the tools to be solid #2 corner in the NFL. Two years ago, everyone wanted Miller, now they want to give up on him. I think this year will be his breakout year.
and the thing about it is... 1. He was right up there w/ Rhodes and Vilma in terms of top performances on D during TC this past season. I watched him very closely, and he has all the skills to be a star. 2. He's the youngest player on the team, has made some good plays at CB and is a pro bowl returner... If ya ask me, the future is obviously bright for him.
Houston played against some serious competition last year. Bowe, Jarrett, Meachem, Florida WRs, and Sidney Rice. Rice is the only one who got the better of him.
ITs possible. Some guys just take longer to develope. See Raiders CB N asomugha. It didn't happen overnight and alot of Raider fans were calling for him to be moved to safety. (shows how little fans know) Asomugha led the Raiders for two years in pass interference calls . Raiders showed alot of patience with him and were rewarded big time.
Not to derail the thread and not to pick a fight but based on the results last season the Raiders probably should have been spending the time and effort that they put into developing Asomugha elsewhere. That's the other side of the player development quandary: with a short career the rule you really cannot spend a lot of time developing an NFL player, except for QB's they kind of have to be ready or nearly ready to go when you get them. So far Miller has not demonstrated that he is remotely ready to go except on special teams.
Lets see N asomugha a 25 years old CB that already one of the top Cbs in football. Hes on one of the youngest defenses in football. How can you say it was not worth developing him . Raiders are pretty much set at position for the conceivable future.F washington N Asomugha, S routt and Chris carr. Thatys defense only going tro get better with more time.
Raiders went 2-14 last season. You can't take that kind of result to develop a few players. They should have spent a lot more time figuring out the offense and less time on the defense.
Are you implying that if they didn't try and develop Asomugha then the offense would suddenly have been that much better? I can only imagine they gave everyone the same attention, it just so happens that the players they brought in on defense clicked, whereas the ones of offense didn't. If they had ignored Asomugha and given Justin Fargas more attention, something tells me Fargas wouldn't have improved as much as Nnamdi has solely because of the added training.
Maybe they should have spent a LOT of time organizationally finding and developing a QB? I think a team in the kind of situation the Raiders were in after Gannon left and Tuiasosopo didn't work out should be thinking QB above all until they have the situation under control. Relying on Collins, Brooks, etc is the main reason the Raiders are collapsed right now. The players, including Asomugha, who did not work out in the first couple of seasons put additional stress on an already over-stressed franchise and probably contributed heavily to the collapse. You can't give everything the attention it needs at once and if they spent a lot of coaching effort on Asomugha they probably hurt themselves in the long run because the o-line and QB is where they absolutely had to be focused to maintain a viable competitive stance.
It's not what he injures, it's the fact that his running style is completely wreckless to his body similar to Earl Campbell in that he takes so many hard hits, that he's going to wear down in a sixteen game season, AND he's going to get those freak injuries because of it.
