Bright Side vs. Darkside

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by KingRoach, May 24, 2022.

  1. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    Kyler Murry, Dak Precott, and David Carr come to mind. Mahomes and Jackson had good first seasons after the luxury of sitting most of their rookie year.

    There are more QBs the last 7 years who did have good rookie years, and then fell off a cliff, like Bortales, Geoff, Wentz, and Trubisky - all pro bowers, and now all backup quality. A better metric is the number of QBs who had bad rookie years and than became successful. One's that were bad and greatly improved are Josh Allen, maybe Mayfield, and maybe Tua.
     
    #21 ouchy, May 24, 2022
    Last edited: May 24, 2022
  2. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    To the OPs topic, there are so many question marks right now that it remains to be seen. We got 4 top 36 picks so we should at least be excited about that. Everyone knows I'm a broken record about how we used our draft capital the last two years. That's my issue.

    I think a better question for people evaluating our rebuild is, in the current power rankings, where would you rank us? IMO were about 26th, maybe 25th, which is two/three positions better than where we finished last season. But we gotta see how the new talent translates. SO yeah, wait and see.
     
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  3. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

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    How is it misleading? Evidence of poor play indicates a higher chance of poor play in the future. There's nothing misleading about it.

    Your initial question was asking why someone would say it's "probable" Wilson won't work out instead of just "possible". The reason it's probable is because statistically, most QBs who have very bad first seasons end up not working out. Not all the time, but most of the time.
     
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  4. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

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    Ahh forgot about Dak, draft day steal and a Sr. Bowl stud. And Baby Yoda is fun to watch but looks like he’s about to be a team nightmare and could shit the bed this year.

    Derek* Carr was more than 7 years ago.

    I double checked the stats before my original post and neither Geoff, Wentz, Trubitzky, or Bortles had good rookie seasons.

    Neither did Mahomes or LJ*. There are different ideologies in training a QB. Sit and learn & trial by fire. Since they serve the same purpose, imo, you need to judge them the same. Neither Mahomes or LJ* were good their rookie years.

    As mentioned, all the QBs you referred to as “had a good rookie year” had bad 1st years and the QBs you mentioned with bad rookie years (Tua and Baker) had good rookie years….

    Notice how polite I’m being pointing out your backwards QB evals?

    *He was a winner his rookie year but a statistical disappointment so tbh, not sure if I’d say he had a good rookie year or not.
     
  5. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

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    I say it’s misleading because as we both know a painfully high percentage of QBs don’t work out regardless of how they perform their rookie year.

    It’s all packaging, I get it. What you said was 100% factual as is “Less than half of current starting NFL QBs had a statistically good rookie year”.

    Both statement are equally true.
     
  6. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

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    I don’t believe power rankings are a better way of evaluating the rebuild as I’m a big fan of everything that’s happened and I’m optimistic about this season and next…. But I still wouldn’t put us in the top 20.
     
  7. cval

    cval Well-Known Member

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    That is such a horrible statistical statement. Are you defining first season as rookie season? what is your sample size? How are you defining a successful or bad season? How are you defining a good "First season". Is it all statistics or is about the team success? Does surrounding cast have an impact on success or failure?

    Past 15 years rookie rankings
    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-rankin...he-past-15-years-can-mac-jones-russell-wilson

    1. Russell Wilson- Turned out pretty good
    2. RGIII- Bust
    3. Baker - No second contract ( Not yet a bust)
    4. Mac Jones- Too early to tell
    5. Dak Prescott- Jury still out?
    6. Mat Ryan- HoF
    7- Herbert - So far so good
    8. Teddy Bridewater- Bust
    9. Joe Burrow- SO far so good
    10. Gardner Minshew- Backup
    11. Carson Wentz- On his third team
    12. Ryan Tannehill- Bust average at best
    13. Cam- Good run now sucks
    14. Jameis Winston- Bust on second team( Has a chance for redemtion
    15. Joe Flacco- Good Carreer


    Five of the worst rookie season
    https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/5-worst-nfl-rookie-quarterback-seasons

    1. Ryan Leaf- Bust
    2. Alex Smith- Pretty good Career
    3. Terry Bradshaw-HOF
    4. Eli Manning - 2 SB
    5. John Elway- HoF

    We can also throw out names like Aikman and Manning

    My point your rookie year has no correlation to future success. Statistically speaking

    Edit: That is why you can't look at Stats alone. Did Zach show signs and did he grow. watching the games and breaking down the tape is a much better way than looking at stats from a rookie QB on real bad team. I will respect someone that comes on here and says I watched the film of this game and Zach footwork was sloppy or he missed throws because he was late or misread the defense on this play. That I can respect, to get on here and say zach sucks because of XYZ stat is just lazy.
     
    #27 cval, May 24, 2022
    Last edited: May 24, 2022
  8. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

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    Kind of like how accuracy has no correlation with completion percentage?
     
  9. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    Kyler Murry was OROY his rookie year. WTF?

    I said Mahomes and Jackson weren't starters their rookie years. It makes no sense for you to claim they had bad rookie years. Mahomes played one game with backups in a meaningless week 17 matchup. Jackson started the last 7 games and finished with twice as many passing TDs as Ints, and a QBR of 84.6. You call that a bad rookie year?

    Carson Wentz had a decent rookie year with a 79.3 QBR.
     
  10. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

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    Here’s an interesting article on the topic.

    https://www.pff.com/news/signature-stats-accuracy-percentage

    From the article:

    Completion percentage is a great statistic for evaluating quarterbacks. Quite simply it’s tough to move the ball consistently through the air without actually completing passes frequently. The only problem with completion percentage is that there are so many factors that can sway the stat that quarterbacks have little to no control over.

    Drops, batted passes, spikes, throwaways, and passes where the quarterback was hit as he was throwing all negatively impact completion percentage, but are also all highly random events. So while you’re getting a cut and dried relationship between completions and attempts, you’re not getting an accurate measure of performance.

    To solve this, PFF offers Accuracy Percentage. The formula is as follows:

    Accuracy% = (Completions + Drops) / (Attempts – TA – BP – Spikes – HAT)

    Accuracy Percentage is basically how accurate a quarterback is on passes that target and reach a receiver.

     
  11. NJJets

    NJJets Member

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    What flashes of greatness are we talking about? The bomb to Davis where he basically just broke the play, waved his receiver deep and threw up a prayer that got caught? That’s flashes of greatness? There’s no bright side/dark side debate to be had. There’s reality and fantasy. The reality is Zach Wilson was downright awful last year. The fantasy is the hope that he magically elevates substantially to the point he might become a relatively average QB next year. Yes fantasies sometimes come true, and yes ALL JETS FANS (including me) hope that he does. But some Jets fans have seen this rodeo enough times. When was the last shitty rookie we had that turned it around and became great? Seriously, some of you are delusionally trying to convince yourselves that Zach must be good because this can’t happen again…. I’m here to tell you-it’s happening again.
     
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  12. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

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    Please take the time to read my posts more throughly. I paired Kyler with Dak in the oh yeah, I forgot about them category. The shit the bed comment was regarding his current antics including not showing up for OTAs and threatening to hold out if he doesn’t get a new contract.

    It makes no sense for me to say Mahomes and LJ had bad rookie years…. The rode the bench therefore they couldn’t have a bad year…. Read better; I said they didn’t have a good year.

    LJ had a 58% completion percentage and averaged less than 150 yards in the air per game…. Once again, I never said he had a bad year, and if you read the full post you’d notice at the bottom where I specifically address LJs success juxtaposed to his questionable stats.

    Wentz: decent isn’t the same as good - we’re talking about who was good their rookie year. With a 16:14 TD:INT ratio he definitely wasn’t good.
     
  13. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    The stats you mention as "proof" that Zach was bad are in significant ways not entirely in his control, so to use them to judge his performance is simply incorrect. And this is interesting since you then acknowledge the shit supporting cast he had to work with. :confused:

    I agree - and have said numerous times - that this season is "put up or shut up" time for Zach, and we'll see if he can rise to to the occasion, and if you and others choose to be doubtful about that, okay but the reasons I keep seeing for that doubt don't carry much weight IMO.
     
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  14. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    It's interesting that the play you chose to "prove" that Zach is a fluke was actually a great example of his ability. There was no luck involved - he escaped big pressure with excellent athleticism and vision, and then directed his receiver to an area he saw that could be exploited and made the play.

    Again, I get being pessimistic after all the decades of failure - I've been a fan since they were the NY Titans and practiced in Peekskill right down the road from where I grew up - and I've been a "darksider" for much of that time, but these past two years I've finally seen reason for hope. Yes, of course they have to go out and prove it on the field, but to ignore what the tape shows and to try to dismiss it with stats that no QB has complete control over is weak tea.
     
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  15. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    I've been a "darksider" for much of the time I've been a fan, but these past two years have given me the most reason for hope since the Ewbank/Namath years. Yes, I'm very optimistic that Zach will take that next step, and eventually become a Top 10 QB (barring significant injury), and I base that on what I saw on the field from him last year despite all the hurdles he had to overcome. And yes, he needs to go out and prove it one the field, but worst case is that Zach fails to perform like I think he will and they have to get a new QB, whether a solid vet or drafting another "savior", but at least the foundation of a good team will be there for whoever that QB is.

    The schedule is very challenging - on paper - but if they can keep plugging away and not get down on themselves, they'll come out stronger knowing how they stack up against the better teams. Since the schedule came out I've revised my original projection down slightly to a floor of 5 from 6 wins, and will be happy with 8-9 wins, and will be happy too is Zach proves out my faith in his ability.
     
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  16. cval

    cval Well-Known Member

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    You want to go there again. I throw you ten balls rt between the numbers you drop five. Does that make me innacurate passer.

    Again, I never said no correlation I said it is not a good measure for passing accuracy and you keep proving my point how looking at stats without context is flawed and lazy.
     
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  17. Imagesrdecieving

    Imagesrdecieving Well-Known Member

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    If Zach busts this year then I still have faith. JD has added enough offensive talent that it should be easy enough to plug in a journeyman and still be successful. Sure we wouldn't have "our" guy but if worst case scenario we have a Fitzpatrick, Neil O'Donnell, Testeverde level QB slinging it to these receivers with these RB's we'd still be on the right trajectory.

    And that's IF Zach fails. I have hopes that his flashes will pan out. This full off season with MiLF has me pretty giddy tbh.

    Sent from my Pixel 5a using Tapatalk
     
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  18. Jets79

    Jets79 Well-Known Member

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    yeah…I think there’s a middle ground though…the supporting cast was subpar for sure, and that has an impact on the stats. But I feel like the blind faith support point of view that chooses to ignore the stats is not valid either. The numbers are what they are…which is worst in the league…I think he ranked 31 out of 32 or something along those lines. I don’t just ignore that and say well he had a lot of drops (even if you add back all his drops he’s still under 60% completion) or say well his receivers were shit half the time (yet he made too many throws into the dirt or behind open receivers). Too often I see people talk about context but only upside context, like we’re excusing his bad stats. Even when he had all his receivers, I don’t think he threw for 300 yards even once. So I totally get that stats without context are not the full picture. But I also think you can’t just ignore them. I think a better QB would have performed better in the same circumastances….shit we saw both White and Flacco do better on the same team. You can’t ignore that. Flacco you can understand…a Super Bowl champion veteran, but to see White have a better game in his first start has to be eye opening, no?

    that being said, I think my viewpoint is in line with yours pretty much….which is I have hope because he does have positive traits and by all accounts he’s a hard worker and that counts for something. I’m not in the “he sucks and he’ll never be the guy” camp…but I’m probably a bit more skeptical than some. That’s ok. If you think my reasons for skepticism don’t carry much weight that’s ok too…we don’t all always agree and that’s what makes the debate fun for me.

    but I fully agree that time will tell…Unless everyone gets hurt again, he should have a vastly improved supporting cast, so that excuse will be eliminated. I’m sure we’ll talk about the hard schedule and facing so many top defenses, and again that matters, but at some point, every QB has to play through adversity, so I’m hopeful that he can do it.

    you seem to be more sure of that than I am…that’s cool…we’re nothing hoping for the same thing.
     
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  19. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    Bottom line, the list of QBs who sucked their rookie year and never panned out is very long. The list that sucked and became good, well you can count on your fingers with one hand.... And you have to go back to the 1970s just to reach the 5 required to complete your hand.

    Is Zach Wilson going to be in the more common group or is he a once-in-decade type?

    by the way, our decade has already seen Josh Allen, so lightning would have to strike twice! and in the same division!
     
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  20. cval

    cval Well-Known Member

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    Do people not understand what it means to be a rookie? White and Flacco were not rookies. White had a game, no doubt, but then came crashing back to earth. Flacco played minutely better than Zach and he is SB winning QB. Again, context.

    Nobody is saying based on last years performance Zach is guaranteed to have success. When you look at the season in context he displayed the talent of what a franchise QB looks like. This is the NFL it takes time to adjust to the speed and complexities of the game. The Jets decided to play Zach to speed up the learning curve. KC decided to sit Mahomes as did San Fran with Lance. Trust me is lanced played more it would have not been pretty, the difference is San Fran had playoff aspirations and had JImmy G to hold down the fort. The Jets were the youngest team in the league coming off a 2 win season.

    It is not ignoring the stats it is understanding the situation and giving the kid time to develop. He has to continue developing that does not mean he has to be a top 10 QB this season or he is a bust like some here are saying. Zach being a middle of the road statistical QB is a fair next step for him. He needs to be a game manager next season with occasional WoW. Year 3 we will know if he is top 10 talent or Geoff or Mayfield.

    Without Tyrek Mahomes will be good but he will take a step back this season.
     

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