Results in a few hours. I was listening over lunch to a dude analyzing a late Ipsos Mori poll showing Leave up four points. He thinks the Remain campaign may have "over-egged the pudding." Heh. I wish so much I could be reborn as a stodgy Brit. Although, I also wish I could be reborn as a genteel southern plantation owner. Some deity with a twisted sense of humor made me a Jets fan instead. Bollocks.
It was. But skewed by several large late bets. I read that volume was running for Leave. Only fuels conspiracy theorists. Which is awesome.
What should be taken into account is that the polling on this is extremely shitty. The last nationwide referendum in the UK was in 1975; and that vote was on whether to join the EU. (It was called something else like the European common community or whatever.) For major US elections, we have polling data every 4 years; you ask people how old they are, their ethnic identity, age, and gender, and whether they voted last time. During the election, they take exit polling data to figure out which groups voted and at what rates. From that, they can then determine "If an 18 year old college student says they'll vote, there is only a 50% chance they'll actually vote." So next cycle, when you know much to discount what each group says. This is why polling has gotten dramatically more accurate. It's not just blindly tallying the number of votes on each side and presenting the raw data; you have to weight the results or your numbers will be garbage. For the Brexit polling, this critical weighting is impossible because the last national referendum was 41 years ago. Anyway, because margin of error could easily be 15%, it could be a landslide in either direction. Especially when you factor in the large number of "undecided" voters, even on the day of the election. Nigel Farage did say that it looks like Remain will edge out Leave... but I'm not sure if the exit polls are out. I'm not sure what he's basing that off of.
In 1973, the Communities enlarged to include Denmark (including Greenland, which later left the Community in 1985, following a dispute over fishing rights), Ireland, and the United Kingdom.[35] Norway had negotiated to join at the same time, but Norwegian voters rejected membership in a referendum. In 1979, the first direct elections to the European Parliament were held.[36] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Treaty_of_Rome_.281957.E2.80.9392.29
Sunderland comes out huge for Leave. Larger margin than expected. Pound suffers HUGE drop in just the last few minutes. Traders dumping. Interesting. ...
This is pretty friggin fascinating to me. Remain folks are now worried about losing (or barely winning) Wales, and how that could be a sign so disaster to follow. Meanwhile, following the odds at Ladbrokes, there's been a strong shift toward Leave over the last hour. Just in the last 30 minutes, it's gone from: In: 2/5 Out: 7/4 to In: 1/2 Out: 6/4 to In: 8/15 Out: 11/8
Live tracker: http://www.theguardian.com/politics...un/23/eu-referendum-live-results-and-analysis Telegraph live blog: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...will-it-be-brexit-exit-poll-and-results-live/
Talk about Monty Python - I've been glued to SkyNews, and just watched some dude do a segment where he pointed out how Sunderland went 61-39 as did some haggis-eating shithole in Scotland. Showed them both on the screen with the same percentage, but then pointed out - "But here's the key difference: there are more than twice the number of voters in Sunderland than there are in Shitston." Nice.
And mark the time - 8:45 EST and the tone of SkyNews has definitely shifted to where the commenters now definitely seem to be suggesting Leave will win this. They're using northeast Labour strongholds going heavy for Leave as a bad, bad sign. Of course, I'll forget all this nonsense tomorrow. Interesting for the moment, though.
More results for Leave. Ladbrokes shifts again. In: 4/6 Out: 11/10 EDIT: and again... In: Even Out: 8/11 Remain folks must me yoorintating their knickers.
Edit: Leave takes over as the betting favorite. In: 5/4 Out: 4/7 Pretty amazing. Still only a fracti0n of results reporting. EDIT; 9:22pm EST In: 7/4 Out: 2/5 Crazy how odds have turned entirely on their head.
That one is way better than the Guardian tracker I've been watching. Although, the Guardian has an awesome cartoon of Boris Johnson looking like a blond, fat Moe Howard.
