Breakdown of Sanchez's picks against Buf

This is Football Outsider's breakdown of the INTs against Buffalo. The last paragraph reads:

Sanchez is a very impressive rookie quarterback who will be able to win several more games this season once he has a full complement of offensive weapons. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer's overall game plan against the Bills was excellent: he established the run and stuck with it, calling pass plays that emphasized play action and protection. It's up to the players to execute, and when Sanchez wasn't battling the wind or making mistakes, Edwards and Keller were dropping passes, or Clowney and Hartsock were running bad routes. The problem will self-correct once Cotchery and Smith return. Until then, Sanchez can live without the Namath comparisons.

Its a pretty good read, leading me to believe that all is not lost for the young QB or his team.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkthrough/2009/walkthrough-interventions

 

Jet Slump

Three straight losses were a disguised blessing for Mark Sanchez and the Jets. All of the Matt Ryan-Joe Namath talk has subsided. The New York media's attention is temporarily elsewhere. Expectations for Sanchez are now much more realistic: he can focus on winning some games, developing his skills, and keeping the Jets in the playoff picture instead of worrying about the specter of Namath.

Sanchez's five-interception performance last week was the result of several factors. It was the first bad weather game of his career, and he clearly had some trouble with the Meadowlands wind. Receivers Jerricho Cotchery and Brad Smith were both injured, so the Jets top receiver was Braylon Edwards, who was just signed a few weeks ago. Under the circumstances, any quarterback would struggle.

But how much of Sanchez's bad day can be chalked up to injuries, inexperience, and bad weather? Did the Bills reveal some fatal flaw in Sanchez's game? To find out, I watched the Jets-Bills game (it was torture), focusing on Sanchez's worst throws. I saw a rattled rookie who is going to make a few more mistakes, but I also saw a Jets team with too few experienced, reliable receiving targets to establish a passing game.
Figure 1: Jets Rollout Interception

Figure 1 shows Sanchez's interception early in the third quarter. The Jets run a play-action pass from a two-tight end set on second-and-11. With Dustin Keller (81) lined up between the left tackle and wing tight end Ben Hartsock (84), the Bills put safety George Wilson in the C-gap, inside right defensive end Aaron Schobel. Wilson's alignment, coupled with the fact that both cornerbacks are split wide to the right and there's a high safety, makes this an easy read, even for a young cornerback. This is man-free coverage, and the Jets play call, a waggle by Sanchez, is well-suited to exploit that coverage.

The problem is that no one gets open. Typically, Keller, running a corner route, is the first read on a rollout like this. Hartsock, running a quick shake route into the flat, is the second option. David Clowney (87), running a deep cross, is the third option, and a run by the quarterback is a fourth option. Keller doesn't get a clean release, and Wilson never strays from his assignment during the play action. Hartsock does not elude the linebacker covering him; he also releases poorly, bumping into Schobel and alerting the defender to drop into flat zone/quarterback spy coverage on the back side. Clowney drifts into the middle of the field but doesn't get open. Sanchez underthrows his pass (wind may have been a factor), and Wilson makes an athletic play.

Jets receivers, whose routes are outlined in red, could have done a much better job on this play. Hartsock should have taken his inside move further inside, or sold his linebacker that he was run blocking. Had he done either of those things, he could have given Sanchez a better outlet receiver. I don't know Clowney's exact route assignment, but when running a deep cross a receiver usually bends his route so he crosses in front of a deep middle safety. Clowney just drifts into him, and he's running like a third option who doesn't think he'll get the ball. Sanchez made a mistake, but better receivers would have given him better opportunities.
Figure 2: Jets Two-Man Route Pick

Figure 2 shows an interception from later in the quarter. This is another play-action pass, and the Jets work hard to sell it. Wayne Hunter (75) enters the game as a tackle eligible, Hartsock goes in motion toward the formation, and at the snap, left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson pulls left as if leading a sweep. The Bills have eight defenders crowding the box, and the play-action pulls them in while slowing the pass rush.

Sanchez only has two receivers on this route: Edwards on a go-route and Clowney on a deep cross. Sanchez stares Edwards down the whole way, drawing deep safety support. Edwards expects to turn outside and catch the ball on his far shoulder, but Sanchez's pass flutters to the inside. Free safety Byrd easily gets into position to intercept a jump ball.

Sanchez made a bad read (Clowney got inside his defender), locked onto his receiver, and threw a bad pass, but the play call is also questionable. Edwards is the only real playmaker running a pattern on this play. With Hunter as an eligible receiver, the Jets lose the ability to use a real tight end as an outlet receiver. Again, this is a personnel problem exacerbated by injuries. With Cotchery and Smith available, the Jets are far less likely to call two-man route combinations.
Figure 3: Near Pick on Slant

Figure 3 isn't an interception; it's a near pick at the end of the third quarter. Here, the Jets are making the best use of their available personnel. With Smith and Cotchery hurt, Leon Washington (29) is their second-best receiver, and he's isolated on the right side with the other receivers to the left. The Bills aren't trying to fool anyone with their pre-snap alignment. They appear to be in Cover 3, with Wilson as a deep defender to his side. Sanchez should have no problem hitting Washington on a skinny slant.

Sanchez's problem on this pass is -- let me cue Ron Jaworski here -- eye discipline. He starts looking to Washington's side before he completes his three-step drop. He leads the outside linebacker, who has responsibility in that flat anyway, right to Washington. Luckily, linebacker Keith Ellison only tips the pass. This is an example of a classic rookie mistake, the kind that is easy to correct.
Figure 4: Edwards Tip Pick

Sanchez's fourth-quarter interception doesn't initially seem like his fault (Fig. 4). The ball is tipped in the air by Edwards, then picked off by Reggie Corner. Sanchez does a better job with his eye discipline on this pass, looking toward Washington long enough to move linebacker Ellison away from Edwards.

The problem is that Sanchez makes the wrong read. The Bills are in Cover-3, with Corner slipping back at the snap into a deep zone. In that coverage, Washington will beat Ellison into the right flat, giving him an easy catch and a chance to run for extra yardage. On fourth-and-3 in a tie ballgame, Sanchez has to trust Washington to make three easy yards. Instead, he fakes, then works inside. Against a basic Cover-2 defense, that might be the right decision. It wasn't in this case. Edwards, of course, has a reputation as a pass dropper, and the problem is made worse by the fact that he and Sanchez are still developing their timing.

Sanchez is a very impressive rookie quarterback who will be able to win several more games this season once he has a full complement of offensive weapons. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer's overall game plan against the Bills was excellent: he established the run and stuck with it, calling pass plays that emphasized play action and protection. It's up to the players to execute, and when Sanchez wasn't battling the wind or making mistakes, Edwards and Keller were dropping passes, or Clowney and Hartsock were running bad routes. The problem will self-correct once Cotchery and Smith return. Until then, Sanchez can live without the Namath comparisons.