Beware Jet Fans... Saleh is taking names!!

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by Cman68, Sep 12, 2022.

  1. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    what is EPA
     
  2. KY Jets Fan

    KY Jets Fan Moderator
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    https://www.the33rdteam.com/breakdowns/epa-explained/

    "Expected Points Added, commonly referred to as EPA, is a measure of how well a team performs relative to expectation. For example, if a team starts a drive on the 50-yard line, it's expected points to start the drive would be about 2.5. If the team ends the drive with a field goal, thus gaining 3 points, its EPA for that drive would be found by subtracting its expected points from how many points it actually gained, 3-2.5 or 0.5 EPA."
     
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  3. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

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    Then why do basically none of the top teams follow this formula?
     
  4. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    No that's false
     
  5. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

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    Sorry but I think you have fundamental misunderstandings here. The evidence @KY Jets Fan presented is just a bit of the mountains of evidence indicating that the best teams are consistently the best passing teams.

    Don't take my word for it - go look at all the playoff teams over the last 10 years. I have done that myself and you'll see that the vast majority of teams that consistently make the playoffs are the best passing teams. The best running teams make the playoffs at around half the frequency the best passing teams do.
     
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  6. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    Yes but the teams with a mediocre defense just don't win Super Bowls.

    You cannot pass your way to success in a vacuum. It just doesn't happen.
     
  7. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    his chart doesn't look at their defenses at all ,it completely ignores it. He explained its about their offensive "EPA" figures. Not a mountain of evidence, more like a knoll :)
     
  8. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    Environmental Protection Agency?

    considering the toxic swamp that the Meadowlands is, no wonder the JETS cant meet the quality standards....
     
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  9. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

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    Of course, and nobody is arguing that. We're just saying that passing offense should take priority over everything because it is quite clearly the thing most strongly associated with consistent success.

    Whether defense or running games tip the scales in a team's favor in the playoffs is another matter entirely - of course they do. But the vast majority of teams never even make the playoffs in the first place without a very good passing offense. It's the entry ticket.

    If you wanted to attend an exclusive gala but didn't have a ticket, would you be more concerned about which suit you're going to wear or the fact that you can't even get in?

    You're kidding, right? His charts directly address defenses, I think you need to go back and read his post with the tweets again.
     
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  10. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    Mr. Hess' dumping grounds
     
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  11. KY Jets Fan

    KY Jets Fan Moderator
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    Neither of these are entirely true.

    The chart above shows that of the 22 participants that have made the Super Bowl since 2010, 11 of those have been worse than top 10 in EPA Defensive Rank for their respective year.

    The Giants (2011) & Chiefs (2019) both won the Super Bowl while having what appears to be 25th best defense in EPA and the 18th best defense in EPA respectively.

    The charts I posted in my previous post do show the defensive EPAs as well, I apologize, I should've explained the graphs when I first posted them. The X-axis on the chart above would be their Offensive EPA Rank while the Y-axis would be their Defensive EPA Rank.

    Just to give an example of what this means let's take a look last years Bengals team as our example. When looking at the X-axis (horizontal lines), we can see that their offense finished about 13th/14th in Offensive EPA while their defense finished about 11th in Defensive EPA (Y-axis, vertical lines).

    There does appear to be a very strong correlation to making the Super Bowl with being top 10 in both Offensive and Defensive EPA but the stronger of the two would be Offensive EPA based on the graph.
     
  12. Aceman16

    Aceman16 New Member

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    Am I the ONLY one who had Rex "the foot" boy Ryan flashbacks hearing this!??
     
  13. PJ4Ever

    PJ4Ever Well-Known Member

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    Dude ur living in the stone ages is you think running is more important than passing in todays NFL. The Bills don’t even pretend to run the ball.
     
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